China’s e-commerce March year-over-year sales growth slowed to 2.5%

Overview

This Nomura China e-commerce quick note tracks National Bureau of Statistics March 2026 retail data. The core conclusion is that e-commerce sales growth in March slowed sharply; online goods sales excluding services rose only 2.5% year-over-year, while from a quarterly perspective, 1Q26 average year-over-year growth was 7.5%, still above 2.3% in 4Q25.

Core views

The report believes that March consumption was not broadly weak, but rather showed category divergence. In essential consumption, online food and beverage, apparel, and home goods all slowed versus the first two months of 2026. On a total-channel basis, food and daily essentials decelerated, but beverages improved. In discretionary consumption, growth accelerated in computers, smartphones, and cosmetics, while home appliances shifted to year-over-year decline due to a pullback effect after a high base and a reduction in the scale of trade-in replacement subsidy policy.

Analysis framework

The analysis is mainly based on monthly retail sales data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, comparing the year-over-year growth rates of March 2026 and the first two months of 2026, and combining online sales, total-channel retail sales, category growth rates, and ecommerce penetration to assess the marginal changes in China’s ecommerce and retail demand.

Methodology notes

• Macro consumption trackingNational Bureau of Statistics retail sales YoY analysis

  Assessing demand changes in retail and ecommerce categories by comparing month-over-month year-over-year growth rates.

  The report compares March single-month data with data from the first two months of 2026 to identify overall deceleration and category-level divergence.

• Channel penetration analysisEcommerce penetration

  The share of online retail in total retail.

  March China ecommerce penetration increased by 0.3 percentage points year-over-year to 29%, indicating that the share of online channels continued to rise marginally.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China ecommerce platforms

  directly relevant

  Strengths

  Online penetration continued to rise year-over-year, and 1Q26 average ecommerce growth exceeded 4Q25.

  Weaknesses

  The March single-month ecommerce sales year-over-year growth slipped to 2.5%, far below that of the first two months of 2026.

  Comparison

  1Q26 average growth of 7.5% is above 4Q25’s 2.3%, but the March single-month figure is weaker than 2M26’s 10.3%.

  Risks

  If retail demand continues to weaken, platform turnover and ad monetization may come under pressure.

• Consumer electronics-related retail

  indirectly relevant

  Strengths

  March growth in computers and smartphones accelerated to 15% and 27.3% year-over-year, respectively.

  Weaknesses

  The report suggests part of the growth came from price increases rather than pure volume improvement.

  Comparison

  Growth in computers and smartphones was above the 5.8% and 17.8% in the first two months of 2026.

  Risks

  Price increases driven by memory supply tightness could suppress underlying demand going forward.

• Home appliance retail

  indirectly relevant

  Strengths

  Growth was previously supported by policy-driven demand.

  Weaknesses

  Home appliance sales fell 5% year-over-year in March, shifting from growth in the first two months of 2026 to a decline.

  Comparison

  Compared with 3.3% year-over-year in 2M26, March performance deteriorated materially.

  Risks

  High-base effects and pullback following a contraction in trade-in replacement policy support may continue to pressure short-term growth.

Key data

• China March retail sales excluding automobilesRMB 3.8 trillion, up 3.2% year-over-yearData from the March retail sales figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 16, 2026.
• China March ecommerce sales excluding servicesRMB 1.1 trillion, up 2.5% year-over-yearA marked slowdown from the 10.3% year-over-year growth in the first two months of 2026.
• 1Q26 ecommerce average growthup 7.5% year-over-yearHigher than 2.3% in 4Q25.
• March ecommerce penetration29%, up 0.3 percentage points year-over-yearThe online channel share continued to edge up.
• Online food and beverage salesup 17.2% year-over-yearBelow the 20.7% growth seen in the first two months of 2026.
• Online apparel salesup 11.6% year-over-yearBelow the 18% growth seen in the first two months of 2026.
• Online home goods salesup 3.6% year-over-yearBelow the 4.7% growth seen in the first two months of 2026.
• Computer and smartphone salesup 15% and 27.3% year-over-year, respectivelyAcceleration from 5.8% and 17.8% in the first two months of 2026, which the report attributes mainly to rising prices under an environment of constrained memory storage supply.
• Home appliance salesdown 5% year-over-yearShifted from up 3.3% in the first two months of 2026 to a decline, which the report attributes to high-base effects and a pullback after trade-in replacement policy size shrank.

Impact & implications

For equity research, March data suggest that marginal demand for Chinese ecommerce is slowing, while online penetration continues to rise and strength/weakness differences across categories are widening. Platform ecommerce, consumer electronics, cosmetics, apparel, and home appliance-related companies may be affected in different directions, and future analysis should separate sales volume, pricing, subsidy effects, and high-base effects.

Risks

• The slowdown in March ecommerce growth may reflect weaker consumption demand.
• Growth in some categories may be price-driven and may not indicate strong demand in volume terms.
• Categories heavily influenced by subsidy policies, such as home appliances, face high-base and policy-phase-out risks.
• Most usable information in the main text appears to come from the quick-note landing page; later disclosure pages contain more OCR noise.

What to watch

• Subsequent monthly year-over-year growth in National Bureau of Statistics retail sales and online goods sales.
• Whether ecommerce penetration continues to rise or starts to decline.
• Whether online category growth in food and beverages, apparel, and home goods can stabilize.
• Decomposition of growth in computer and smartphone sales between price and volume.
• Changes in the scale of trade-in replacement policy for home appliances and their continued impact on sales.