APR's Medicube posted resilient April US Amazon GMV, while May rankings weakened in the near term but June Prime Day may bring improvement

Overview

This report updates tracking data for independent K-Beauty brands, focusing on Medicube (APR) and COSRX (Amorepacific) on Amazon Best Sellers Ranking and US GMV performance. The report is more favorable on APR: Medicube's April US Amazon GMV improved, returned to triple-digit y/y growth, and its core SKUs in the US and UK remained resilient in ranking. However, in the second week of May, overall K-Beauty rankings were temporarily soft due to a lack of promotions.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes APR's current valuation of around mid-20x NTM P/E is attractive, and that its fast-growing momentum is still supported by regional expansion, especially in Europe, as well as long-term offline channel expansion. It remains Neutral on Amorepacific: although COSRX has started to show meaningful signs of improvement, GMV or rankings in key regions have not yet shown a structural uptrend.

Analysis framework

The report uses a data-tracking approach, comparing changes in Amazon Best Sellers Ranking between late April and mid-May, and evaluating brand momentum by combining month-over-month and year-over-year trends in US Amazon GMV. The investment view also incorporates target P/E, forward EPS, regional expansion, channel mix improvement, and brand portfolio risk.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsdiscounted p/e valuation

  discounted P/E valuation

  APR's target price is based on 2028E EPS and discounted to a 12-month forward basis; Goldman Sachs uses a 25x target P/E, between the current roughly 20x trading multiple for Korean multinationals and roughly 30x for global multinationals, and applies a 10% discount rate.

• Valuation methodsp/e multiple valuation

  P/E multiple valuation

  Amorepacific's 12-month target price is derived by multiplying NTM EPS by 24x P/E, where 24x is the midpoint between its historical average of 28x and the lower end of the downcycle trading range at 20x.

• factorGS Factor Profile

  GS Factor Profile

  GS Factor Profile compares individual stocks with the market and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• APR Corp. / Medicube

  core covered company and brand; the report maintains a Buy rating

  Strengths

  April US Amazon GMV improved sequentially, returned to triple-digit y/y growth, core SKU rankings in the US and UK were resilient, and the valuation is seen as attractive relative to growth.

  Weaknesses

  Rankings were soft in the second week of May without promotions; newer markets such as France and Germany slowed versus the fourth week of April; the brand and product portfolio remain limited versus global multinationals.

  Comparison

  APR grows faster than Korean multinationals; however, its brand and product portfolio depth is weaker than that of global multinationals, which is why the target P/E is set between the two.

  Risks

  Failure in brand lifecycle management, weaker-than-expected offline expansion, changes in capital allocation strategy, higher-than-expected marketing budget pressure, intensifying K-Beauty competition, and limited SKU expansion.

• Amorepacific / COSRX

  peer covered company and brand; the report maintains a Neutral rating

  Strengths

  COSRX has started to show meaningful signs of improvement; global expansion of non-luxury brands could still provide upside.

  Weaknesses

  COSRX rankings remain generally weak, US GMV is only stable, and key regions have not yet shown structural GMV or ranking improvement.

  Comparison

  Compared with APR's Medicube, COSRX trends in the US are more muted and lack clear evidence of structural upside.

  Risks

  Non-luxury brand global expansion may proceed more slowly than expected, COSRX recovery may lag expectations, changes in Chinese premium beauty consumption trends, and management's trade-off between market share growth and profitability may shift.

• Amazon channel

  sales and ranking tracking platform for K-Beauty brands

  Strengths

  Best Sellers Ranking and GMV provide high-frequency signals of brand momentum.

  Weaknesses

  Rankings are highly sensitive to promotion timing, and short-term volatility does not necessarily equal a fundamental trend.

  Comparison

  Medicube core SKUs performed more resiliently in the US and UK markets, while newer markets such as France and Germany were more volatile.

  Risks

  Promotional events such as Prime Day change ranking comparability, and platform traffic and discount strategies may amplify short-term volatility.

Key data

• APR target priceW460,000Discounted to a 12-month forward basis using 2028E EPS, a 25x target P/E, and a 10% discount rate.
• APR reference priceW402,000Price shown on the disclosure page.
• APR implied upsideabout 14.4%Estimated using the W460,000 target price and W402,000 reference price, excluding dividends.
• Amorepacific target priceW140,000Based on 24x NTM P/E.
• Amorepacific reference priceW120,500Price shown on the disclosure page.
• Medicube April US Amazon GMVreturned to triple-digit y/y growthThe report says the month-over-month trend strengthened in April.
• K-Beauty independent brand monthly GMV chartabout US$6.2mn in AprilThe chart reading is approximate, showing a level close to March and far below the November 2025 peak of about US$16mn.
• Amazon Best Sellers Ranking observation date2026-05-13The table title is shown as Skincare category as of May 13, 2026.

Impact & implications

In the short term, the weak rankings in May likely reflect promotion timing rather than a clear deterioration in underlying brand demand; June Prime Day may be a key checkpoint for verifying Medicube's ranking recovery and GMV elasticity. Over the medium term, APR's investment case still depends on whether expansion in regions such as Europe and offline channel expansion can continue to deliver. Amorepacific needs a more explicit inflection in GMV and rankings for COSRX in core markets.

Risks

• APR's brand lifecycle management or offline expansion execution may fall short of expectations.
• Management may change its capital allocation strategy.
• Marketing budget pressure may be higher than expected.
• Internal competition in K-Beauty may intensify.
• APR's SKU expansion may remain limited.
• Amorepacific's non-luxury brand global expansion or COSRX recovery may be slower than expected.
• Changes in Chinese premium beauty consumption trends may affect Amorepacific.
• Short-term Amazon rankings are influenced by promotion timing and may lead to misread trends.

What to watch

• Whether Medicube and COSRX rankings improve meaningfully during June Amazon Prime Day.
• Whether Medicube's US Amazon GMV can sustain triple-digit y/y growth.
• Whether Medicube can recover rankings in new European markets such as France and Germany.
• APR's offline channel expansion progress and channel mix improvement.
• Whether COSRX shows a structural rebound in GMV and rankings in the US and key regions.
• Changes in APR's marketing expense ratio and competitive pressure.