Earnings recovered but came in below expectations; near-term reaction may be neutral to slightly negative

Overview

This report is UBS's review of Shenzhen FastPrint Circuit's 4Q25 and 1Q26 results. The company's earnings recovered significantly versus 2024, but both 4Q25 and 1Q26 revenue and net profit were below UBS expectations. UBS believes the earnings improvement came from stronger BT substrate demand, higher utilization, narrower MLB losses, and slower FCBGA spending, but after the sharp recent share-price rise, the below-expectation results may weigh on the near-term market reaction.

Core views

The core judgments include: first, both 4Q25 and 1Q26 results fell short of UBS expectations, especially with 1Q26 revenue 31% below UBS expectations and net profit materially lagging; second, the company returned to profit in 2025, with BT substrates benefiting from memory demand-driven improvement in revenue and gross margin, making them the main source of earnings recovery; third, BT substrates may still benefit in 2026 from continued memory demand, tight T-glass supply, and rising ASPs; fourth, although ABF has not yet secured mass-production orders, sampling orders grew significantly YoY in 2025, and the company is advancing onboarding with overseas customers; fifth, considering the rapid share-price rise and a target price below the current price, near-term investor reaction is expected to be neutral to slightly negative.

Analysis framework

UBS evaluates the company using a combination of actual results versus UBS expectations, profit changes by business segment, industry supply-demand judgment, valuation framework, and a short-term quantitative questionnaire. The report focuses on comparing 4Q25 and 1Q26 revenue, gross profit, expenses, core operating profit, net profit, and EPS, while assessing future earnings elasticity across business lines such as BT, ABF, FCBGA, and MLB.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodssum-of-the-parts valuation

  sum-of-the-parts valuation

  UBS uses a sum-of-the-parts approach to value the company. Both the core business and the new ABF business are valued based on PE; the core business uses 2024E earnings, while the new ABF business uses 2027E earnings.

• earnings comparisonactual results versus UBS expectations

  actual versus UBS estimate

  The report compares 4Q25 and 1Q26 revenue, gross profit, expenses, core operating profit, net profit, and EPS line by line against UBS expectations to judge whether results beat or missed expectations.

• short-term factorsQuantitative Research Review

  short-term qualitative quantitative questionnaire

  UBS disclosed scores for short-term factors such as industry structure, regulatory environment, recent stock performance, EPS surprise risk, and catalysts; this framework reflects the short-term view and is not equivalent to the 12-month stock rating.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Shenzhen FastPrint Circuit (002436.SZ)

  covered company

  Strengths

  BT substrates are supported by strong memory demand and tight T-glass supply, helping the company return to profit in 2025; MLB losses narrowed and FCBGA sampling orders increased.

  Weaknesses

  4Q25 and 1Q26 results were below UBS expectations, 1Q26 attributable net profit remained negative, and ABF has not yet secured mass-production orders.

  Comparison

  Versus UBS expectations, the company's 1Q26 revenue was 31% lower and net profit 88% lower; 2026E EPS is Rmb0.45, above consensus of Rmb0.35.

  Risks

  ABF capacity ramp-up is slower than expected, the core PCB business recovery underperforms the China PCB market, and valuation pressure rises after the rapid share-price increase.

• Shennan Circuits

  industry reference company

  Strengths

  Its 1Q26 results were used by UBS as a reference for judging BT substrate demand and ASP upside.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide a full fundamental analysis of the company.

  Comparison

  UBS uses Shennan's 1Q26 results as supporting evidence for FastPrint's expected BT substrate order growth and ASP upside.

  Risks

  Signals from the reference company cannot fully represent FastPrint's own order momentum, customer onboarding, and earnings delivery pace.

Key data

• 12-month ratingNeutralThe current rating disclosed in the report.
• 12-month target priceRmb26.00Based on the April 24, 2026 current price of Rmb28.52, the expected share price upside is -8.8%.
• 4Q25 revenueRmb1.822bnUp about 24% YoY, down 6% QoQ, and 16% below UBS expectations.
• 4Q25 attributable net profitRmb3.5mnUp about 102% YoY, down 97% QoQ, and below the midpoint of guidance.
• 1Q26 revenueRmb1.818bnEssentially flat QoQ, up 15% YoY, and 31% below UBS expectations.
• 1Q26 attributable net profit-Rmb7.7mnExcluding non-recurring items, it was Rmb28.2mn; attributable net profit and ex-non-recurring profit grew 96% and 308% YoY respectively, but were still significantly below UBS expectations.
• 1Q26 inventoryUp 17% QoQ and 50% YoYUBS believes this was mainly related to raw material stocking amid rising costs since the end of 2025.
• 2026E EPSRmb0.45UBS forecast is above consensus of Rmb0.35.
• 2027E EPSRmb0.56UBS forecast is in line with consensus.
• market capitalizationRmb48.5bn / US$7.09bnBased on the trading data disclosed in the report.

Impact & implications

The report is cautious on the stock's near-term implications: fundamentals have indeed improved, and BT substrates plus potential ABF customer onboarding still provide medium-term positives, but 1Q26 results missed expectations, earnings quality has not yet been fully validated, and the share price has already priced in expectations around mSAP capability, overseas customer qualification, and tight ABF supply-demand. The target price being below the current price implies the risk-reward is not particularly attractive at current levels.

Risks

• ABF new capacity ramp-up is slower than expected.
• Recovery in the core PCB business fails to outperform the China PCB market.
• FCBGA still has not obtained mass-production orders, and the pace of overseas customer onboarding remains uncertain.
• Raw material cost inflation and rising inventory may affect gross margin and cash flow.
• The share price has risen about 38% since early April 2026; if earnings delivery falls short, valuation pullback risk will rise.

What to watch

• The extent of BT substrate order growth and ASP increases in 2026.
• Whether T-glass supply tightness persists and its impact on substrate pricing.
• ABF sampling progress with overseas CPU customers and the timing of mass-production orders.
• Whether the MLB business can achieve profitability in 2026 as the company expects.
• Whether revenue, gross margin, inventory, and cash flow in subsequent quarters validate the earnings recovery.