Strong flows into semiconductor/AI/space themes, while EM and agricultural commodities remain under pressure

Overview

This report tracks cross-asset fund flows and positioning in global futures and U.S.-listed ETFs. The key weekly changes were: equities and rates saw net buying due to optimism over the Iran deal; AI, semiconductors, and space themes continued to attract capital; emerging markets, agricultural products, and some commodities remained in outflow; and CTAs reduced rate shorts while maintaining global equity longs.

Core views

Fund flows show clear divergence: U.S. equities, technology, semiconductors, and thematic ETFs are the strongest areas, while mortgages and investment-grade corporate bonds also saw solid inflows within fixed income; by contrast, emerging market equities, China and Latin America, agricultural commodities, precious metals, and some international bonds remained under pressure. The strong inflows into thematic ETFs should be interpreted cautiously, as roughly $7.4Bn of inflows into ARKK/ARKQ may be related to custom in-kind basket rebalancing and could reverse this week.

Analysis framework

The report uses ETF net inflows, futures net flows, CFTC positioning, CTA momentum signals, and liquidity indicators to assess cross-asset risk appetite and crowding, and uses 1-year Z-scores to measure the strength of flows.

Methodology notes

• Flow monitoringETF and futures net flows

  Net flows

  Measures capital entering or leaving asset classes, regions, sectors, and themes through U.S.-listed ETF flows and buy/sell attribution along the global futures chain.

• Standardized strengthZ-score

  1-year standardized score

  Unless otherwise stated, the Z-score is calculated using 1 year of history and equals the current value minus the mean, divided by the standard deviation, to compare the abnormality of fund flows across different assets or themes.

• Trend followingCTA signal

  Momentum and moving-average signals

  CTA indicators combine 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month momentum with 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages to determine whether CTAs are likely to be long, short, or neutral.

• Position structureCFTC TFF/COT

  Asset managers, leveraged funds, and non-commercial positions

  Uses the CFTC Commitments of Traders report to observe position changes and historical percentiles across investor categories in equity, rates, commodities, and FX futures.

• Trading environmentLiquidity indicators

  Bid-ask spreads, market depth, and ADV

  Assesses trading liquidity in relevant contracts using futures bid-ask spreads, order-book depth, and average daily notional volume.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• U.S. equities and technology/semiconductor/AI themes

  Primary beneficiary assets

  Strengths

  U.S. equity ETFs saw inflows of $32Bn, the technology sector was at 3.4z, semiconductors saw about $5.5Bn at 4.3z, and thematic ETFs saw inflows of $9.7Bn.

  Weaknesses

  Some thematic flows may have come from custom basket rebalancing in ARKK/ARKQ and may not represent sustained active buying.

  Comparison

  U.S. equity flows were clearly stronger than those in international developed markets and emerging markets.

  Risks

  If optimism over the Iran deal or momentum in technology themes reverses, high-Z-score inflows could cool quickly.

• Space-themed ETFs

  Beneficiaries of thematic fund flows

  Strengths

  NASA saw inflows of about $0.8Bn, with the space theme attracting attention alongside AI and semiconductors.

  Weaknesses

  The structure of thematic ETF inflows may be influenced by a small number of products and by rebalancing trades.

  Comparison

  Similar to DRAM, it was one of the strong subcomponents of thematic ETF inflows this week.

  Risks

  If thematic flows are driven by technical trading, there is a risk of short-term pullback or reverse outflows.

• Emerging market equities

  Relatively pressured assets

  Strengths

  South Korea still saw inflows of about 1z, showing that EM is not uniformly weak internally.

  Weaknesses

  EM equity ETFs saw outflows for a fourth straight week, with China at -2.7z and Latin America at -2.4z.

  Comparison

  Clearly weaker than U.S. equities and technology themes.

  Risks

  If the dollar or global risk appetite turns unfavorable, EM outflows may continue.

• Fixed income

  Supported by inflows amid lower-rate backdrop

  Strengths

  Fixed income ETFs saw inflows of $12.3Bn, with mortgages and investment-grade corporate bonds at 2.1z and 1.1z respectively; CTAs also reduced rate shorts.

  Weaknesses

  International bonds saw significant outflows at -1.5z.

  Comparison

  Like equities, fixed income saw net buying, but the internal structure was differentiated.

  Risks

  If yields rise again, positions after the reduction in rate shorts may be adjusted again.

• Commodities, agricultural products, and precious metals

  Assets with weaker fund flows

  Strengths

  Copper is the exception, with CTAs adding to copper longs.

  Weaknesses

  Commodity ETFs saw outflows of $1.6Bn, agricultural products saw a third week of outflows, precious metals saw outflows of about 1z driven by gold, and Managed Money sold Brent, Copper, and agricultural products.

  Comparison

  Clearly weaker than the inflow direction in equities and fixed income.

  Risks

  CTA bearishness on agricultural products may amplify the downtrend, while copper longs also create divergence within commodities.

• FX and the U.S. dollar versus developed-market currencies

  CTAs remain short DM FX versus USD

  Strengths

  CHF futures saw net buying above 1.5z.

  Weaknesses

  Overall, CTAs remain short DM FX versus USD.

  Comparison

  FX signals are less consistent than those in equities.

  Risks

  If the dollar trend reverses, CTA FX positions may face rapid adjustment.

Key data

• Equity ETF flows$35.9Bn；0.8zStrong weekly inflows, mainly driven by the U.S.
• Fixed income ETF flows$12.3Bn；0.4zMortgages were 2.1z, investment-grade corporate bonds were 1.1z, and international bonds were -1.5z.
• Commodity ETF flows-$1.6Bn；-1.1zCommodities saw overall outflows, with agricultural commodities in their third week of outflows and precious metals seeing outflows of about 1z, driven by gold.
• U.S. equity ETF flows$32Bn；1.1zAccounted for most of the regional equity inflows.
• International developed market equity ETF flows$5Bn；-0.4zOverall below average, but Canada was at 1.8z.
• Emerging market equity ETFsOutflows for a fourth consecutive weekChina was -2.7z, Latin America was -2.4z, while South Korea saw inflows of about 1z.
• IVV to VOO switch>$40BnOccurred ahead of IVV's ex-dividend date and represents an important internal ETF rotation.
• Technology sector ETF flows3.4zLed by semiconductors.
• Semiconductor ETF flowsAbout $5.5Bn；4.3zThe report says semiconductor ETFs saw strong inflows above 4z.
• Thematic ETF flows$9.7Bn；3.8zIncluding about $0.9Bn into DRAM, about $0.8Bn into NASA, and about $7.4Bn into ARKK/ARKQ.
• Stronger futures net buying directions>1.5zIncluding NDX, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, CSI 500, TAIEX, Japan 10y, and CHF futures.
• Stronger futures net selling directions<-1.5zIncluding RTY, Bovespa, Euro Stoxx 50, ASX 200, Italy/China 10y, and Wheat futures.
• CFTC positioning changesLeveraged funds reduced shorts in SPX, NDX, and UST 2ySPX was 1.1z, NDX was 2.2z, and UST 2y was 1.7z; asset managers sold VIX and rotated from 2-year notes into Ultra bonds.

Impact & implications

Short-term fund preferences are concentrated in U.S. equities, technology, semiconductors, AI, and space themes, which may continue to support related ETF and futures risk exposure; however, outflows from emerging markets, agricultural commodities, precious metals, and some commodities show that risk appetite is not balanced. If ARKK/ARKQ-related flows mainly reflect basket rebalancing rather than active allocation, their sustainability should be discounted. CTAs remain long global equities, short developed-market FX versus the dollar, and bearish on agricultural products, which may amplify trend moves.

Risks

• About $7.4Bn of inflows into ARKK/ARKQ may have been driven by custom in-kind basket rebalancing, and the report warns that a reversal is possible this week.
• Z-scores for flows into semiconductors and thematic ETFs are high; if technology momentum or risk appetite weakens, flows could shift from strong inflows to profit-taking.
• Continuous outflows from emerging markets, especially pressure in China and Latin America, may reflect weak regional allocation rather than short-term noise.
• Continued outflows from agricultural commodities, precious metals, and some commodities, combined with CTA bearish positioning, could exacerbate commodity price volatility.
• This report focuses on weekly fund flows and positioning and is not equivalent to fundamental earnings forecasts or company valuation conclusions.
• The material includes regional distribution and compliance restrictions and must be used in accordance with applicable regulatory requirements.

What to watch

• Whether the strong inflows into semiconductor, DRAM, AI, and space-themed ETFs can continue rather than being driven only by one-week rebalancing.
• Whether the roughly $7.4Bn of ARKK/ARKQ-related inflows and the more than $40Bn IVV-to-VOO switch reverse in subsequent weekly data.
• Whether EM equities continue to see outflows, especially the divergence among China, Latin America, and South Korea.
• Whether CTAs continue to reduce rate shorts and whether global equity longs become overly crowded.
• Whether divergence within commodities continues: whether outflows from agricultural products and precious metals persist, and whether copper longs are maintained.
• After leveraged funds reduced shorts in SPX, NDX, and UST 2y in the CFTC data, whether they shift toward new directional longs.