China premium consumption momentum weakened in March, but luxury goods and jewelry diverged

Overview

This report is Nomura's industry channel-check summary on China's premium consumption. The core information comes from an April 9 China domestic-demand channel-check conference call. The interview subject was an expert familiar with premium consumption trends in China and who observed a leading luxury shopping mall in Nanjing, Jiangsu. The report focuses on mall foot traffic, same-store sales, and sales momentum across major consumer categories and brands during March 2026 and 1Q26.

Core views

The core view is that premium consumption cooled temporarily in March, but not all categories weakened at the same time. The mall's foot traffic fell by a high single-digit percentage year over year in March, and same-store sales fell by a mid-single-digit percentage year over year, a clear step down from the positive growth seen in the first two months of 2026. The expert believes the main reasons include the post-Lunar New Year seasonal lull and heightened uncertainty from escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, which dampened consumer willingness to spend, especially among high-net-worth clients. However, since early April, foot traffic has already shown signs of recovery, benefiting from warmer weather and the arrival of spring/summer collections from luxury brands.

Analysis framework

The report uses expert interviews and channel checks at a single high-end shopping mall to assess short-term demand momentum in China across premium consumption, jewelry, luxury goods, sportswear, apparel, and beauty.

Methodology notes

• Channel checksexpert channel call

  Use observations from an expert familiar with premium consumption trends at a leading luxury shopping mall in Nanjing to capture real-time signals on foot traffic, same-store sales, and brand performance.

  This method provides high-frequency, forward-looking offline consumption observations, but the sample is concentrated in a single mall and is therefore limited in representativeness; it should be validated against broader store data, online data, and company disclosures.

• Operating metricsame-store sales

  Same-store sales measure sales changes at comparable stores, stripping out the impact of newly opened or closed stores on growth.

  The report uses year-over-year changes in same-store sales and foot traffic to judge the true momentum of premium consumption and breaks out structural differences by category and brand.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Laopu Gold (6181 HK)

  A domestic premium jewelry brand; labeled Buy in the report and one of the strongest related assets in the survey.

  Strengths

  1Q26 same-store sales at the mall grew more than 70% year over year; the late-February price increase did not materially suppress demand; there is still room for premiumization and product expansion.

  Weaknesses

  Growth depends heavily on premium consumer demand and brand execution, and a single-mall sample cannot fully represent nationwide performance.

  Comparison

  Clearly stronger than other traditional global high-end jewelry brands, which were still down by mid- to high-teen percentages year over year in 1Q26.

  Risks

  High-net-worth consumer willingness to spend could be affected by macro and geopolitical uncertainty; if service and new products are insufficient after price increases, demand resilience could weaken.

• Van Cleef & Arpels / CFR SW

  A leading global jewelry brand; CFR SW is labeled Not rated in the report.

  Strengths

  Recorded double-digit year-over-year same-store sales growth at the mall in 1Q26, showing the resilience of top-tier jewelry brands.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide broader regional or company-level data.

  Comparison

  Outperformed other traditional global high-end jewelry brands.

  Risks

  Demand for high-end jewelry may still be affected by seasonal weakness, wealth effects, and geopolitical uncertainty.

• Hermès (RMS FP) and LV (MC FP)

  Top global luxury brands; both are labeled Not rated in the report.

  Strengths

  Maintained stable sales momentum at the mall in 1Q26.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not disclose exact growth rates.

  Comparison

  Performed better than most other luxury brands that are in a downtrend.

  Risks

  If high-end consumer spending remains under pressure, stable growth could slow.

• Chanel

  An unlisted luxury brand used as an industry demand reference.

  Strengths

  Saw some recovery in 1Q26, with high single-digit year-over-year growth.

  Weaknesses

  Unlisted and lacking detailed financial disclosure; the investment mapping is mainly as an industry signal.

  Comparison

  Performed better than other luxury brands that remained in a downtrend.

  Risks

  Whether the recovery can be sustained still depends on new products, traffic recovery, and premium consumption sentiment.

• Arc'teryx / Amer Sports (AS US)

  An asset related to premium sportswear; Amer Sports is labeled Buy in the report.

  Strengths

  Arc'teryx's same-store sales at the mall rose by about 20% year over year in 1Q26, still on an upward trend.

  Weaknesses

  Growth slowed from roughly 40% year-over-year in 4Q25.

  Comparison

  The premium segment of sportswear outperformed overall apparel sentiment, but intensifying competition slowed incremental growth.

  Risks

  Rising competition in the category may continue to squeeze growth; volatility in premium consumption will also affect brand sales.

• Apparel and beauty segments

  Industry demand observation; not tied to a single listed security.

  Strengths

  Sales momentum in beauty has recovered somewhat, especially among global beauty brands.

  Weaknesses

  Apparel sales sentiment remained weak in 1Q26.

  Comparison

  Beauty outperformed apparel, but the report does not provide quantified growth rates.

  Risks

  The recovery in consumption is uneven, and divergence across categories may continue.

Key data

• March mall total foot trafficdown high single digits year over yearObserved by an expert at a leading premium shopping mall in Nanjing, Jiangsu.
• March mall same-store salesdown mid-single digits year over yearA contrast to the positive year-over-year growth in foot traffic and same-store sales in the first two months of 2026.
• Van Cleef & Arpels 1Q26 same-store salesdouble-digit year-over-year growthPart of CFR SW; the report labels it Not rated.
• Other traditional global high-end jewelry brands 1Q26 performancedown mid- to high-teen percentages year over yearShows clear brand divergence within the jewelry segment.
• Laopu Gold 1Q26 same-store salesup more than 70% year over year6181 HK, labeled Buy in the report; the expert said the late-February price increase did not materially affect demand.
• Chanel 1Q26 saleshigh single-digit year-over-year growthUnlisted; the report says sales recovered somewhat.
• Arc'teryx 1Q26 same-store salesup about 20% year over yearPart of Amer Sports (AS US, Buy), slowing from roughly 40% year-over-year growth in 4Q25.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report suggests that China's premium consumption overall is under short-term pressure after the Lunar New Year and amid external uncertainty, but structural opportunities remain concentrated in brands with strong brand equity, premium positioning, and new-product drivers, especially jewelry, leading luxury names, and premium sportswear. Laopu Gold's strong same-store sales growth suggests domestic premium jewelry brands may still benefit from brand upgrading and improved service. The slowdown in Arc'teryx growth suggests that intensifying competition in a high-growth category may compress marginal growth.

Risks

• The single high-end shopping mall sample is limited in representativeness and cannot be directly extrapolated to the entire country or all brands.
• The post-Lunar New Year consumption lull may amplify short-term volatility in March.
• Middle East geopolitical tensions and external uncertainty may continue to dampen high-net-worth consumer willingness to spend.
• Intensifying competition in premium sportswear may continue to slow growth for leading brands.
• The report does not provide full company financial forecasts, valuation, or target prices, so investment conclusions need to be validated with company-level data.

What to watch

• Whether the recovery in mall foot traffic continues in April and later months.
• Conversion rates and same-store sales performance for luxury and jewelry brands after spring/summer products hit shelves.
• Demand resilience, service upgrades, and new SKU rollout effectiveness after Laopu Gold's price increase.
• Changes in Arc'teryx's same-store sales growth amid intensifying competition.
• Whether weakness in apparel spreads to other discretionary consumer categories and whether the recovery in beauty is sustained.