SpaceX lockup releases weigh on short-term sentiment; the focus remains on Starship reusability and orbital data centers

Overview

This report focuses on SpaceX's phased post-IPO lockup expirations and its upcoming Q2 results. Bernstein considers the lockup schedule unusually complex, with nine major release dates that will gradually increase tradable supply over approximately six months after the IPO and lead some investors to defer purchases due to supply uncertainty through December. Nevertheless, the report maintains a positive view of the long-term fundamentals.

Core views

The report's core view is that short-term share price performance is primarily constrained by expectations for lockup expirations and an increase in the public float, and the research team does not attempt to predict the specific impact of each release on the share price. The medium- and long-term investment thesis still depends on whether SpaceX can achieve a fully reusable Starship, high-frequency launches, and its orbital data center plans. Q2 results from Starlink and recent financial performance are informative but insufficient to determine ultimate potential value; the key issue is whether management can translate its ambitious vision into a clear and executable launch-capability roadmap.

Analysis framework

The report first reviews the post-IPO ownership structure and the lockup arrangements disclosed in the S-1, then lists the major lockup expiration dates and potentially released percentages from August through December 2026, and explains recent share price pressure in conjunction with changes in the public float. For valuation, the report applies a sum-of-the-parts approach, using 12-month forward EV/EBITDA multiples on each business segment's 2031 EBITDA and discounting each segment to mid-2027 to derive a one-year target price.

Methodology notes

• Event-driven analysisPhased post-IPO lockup release

  Lockup-related supply pressure

  The analysis assesses the impact of an increase in the public float on short-term market sentiment and potential supply through the expiration dates, triggering conditions, and share percentages disclosed in the S-1.

• Valuation methodologySum-of-the-parts EV/EBITDA

  Discounted valuation based on 2031 EBITDA

  The report considers orbital data centers to be the core of the valuation, and therefore uses 2031 EBITDA rather than EBITDA for a nearer year; it then discounts each business segment to mid-2027 to derive a one-year target price.

• Fundamental trackingKey milestone validation

  Full Starship reusability and high launch frequency

  The report views Starship reusability, the Launch 13 results, launch pad plans, and the launch growth trajectory as key indicators for validating long-term value.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• SPCX.US

  Covered security

  Strengths

  Long-term potential comes from a fully reusable Starship, high-frequency launches, the Starlink connectivity business, and the potential value of orbital data centers.

  Weaknesses

  The post-listing public float is relatively low and the lockup arrangements are complex, so near-term supply releases may weaken investors' willingness to buy.

  Comparison

  Bernstein's U.S. equity ratings are benchmarked against relative performance versus the S&P 500 over the next 12 months; Outperform means expected outperformance of the market by more than 15 percentage points.

  Risks

  Starship launch capability may improve less than expected, orbital data centers may fail to become operational, semiconductor and supply-chain constraints, launch accidents, regulatory restrictions, and lower-than-expected computing demand.

Key data

• RatingOutperformBernstein's current rating for SPCX.
• Target price239.00 USDA one-year target price based on each segment's 2031 EBITDA discounted to mid-2027.
• Current price108.37 USDClosing price on July 31, 2026.
• Implied upside121%Calculated based on the 239.00 USD target price and the 108.37 USD closing price.
• IPO date2026-06-12SpaceX completed its IPO on this date and listed Class A shares on Nasdaq.
• Initial public floatApproximately 639 million shares, approximately 4.9% of total sharesTotal shares include Class A and Class B shares.
• Ownership structureApproximately 7.464 billion Class A shares; approximately 5.696 billion Class B sharesClass A shares carry one vote per share and are publicly traded; Class B shares are unlisted and carry 10 votes per share.
• First lockup expiration2026-08-06Triggered after the Q2 report; approximately 20% of eligible locked-up shares may be sold, with an additional approximately 10% subject to conditional release.
• Subsequent lockup schedule2026-08-20, 2026-09-09, 2026-09-24, 2026-10-09, 2026-10-24Approximately 7% of total shares will be released from lockup on each occasion.
• Larger-scale lockup expirationLate October or early November 2026The lockup expiration triggered by the Q3 results represents approximately 28% of shares.
• 180-day lockup expiration2026-12-08180 days after the IPO, marking the effective end of the initial six-month insider lockup period.
• December 2026 public floatUp to approximately 40%The report expects multiple lockup releases before December to significantly increase the public float.
• Valuation discount rates25% for Connectivity, 35% for AIThe report states that late-stage venture capital discount rates are used.
• Market capitalization and enterprise valueMarket capitalization approximately 1,426.06 billion USD; EV approximately 1,439.70 billion USDTabulated data as of July 31, 2026.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report suggests treating lockup-related supply as the primary short-term trading variable, particularly because continuous releases from August through December may continue to suppress willingness to buy. However, if the Q2 call clearly demonstrates a path to full Starship reusability, high launch frequency, and the implementation of orbital data centers, it could reinforce confidence in the long-term fundamentals and support the Outperform rating and a target price above the current share price.

Risks

• The expiration of lockups will increase the number of shares available for sale, potentially continuing to weigh on the short-term share price and investor sentiment.
• Starship's launch capability must increase substantially and depends on achieving full reusability.
• If orbital data centers cannot become operational, the core source of value in the report's valuation framework will be weakened.
• Semiconductor supply and other supply-chain issues may constrain AI- and data center-related plans.
• Launch accidents or regulatory restrictions may affect the launch cadence and business expansion.
• If computing demand is lower than market expectations, the realization of orbital data center value faces downside risk.

What to watch

• Whether the August 4, 2026 Q2 report and conference call provide sufficiently specific commentary on the Starship roadmap.
• Actual supply and share price reaction following the first lockup expiration on August 6, 2026.
• The impact of multiple approximately 7% share lockup releases from August through October 2026 on the public float and trading sentiment.
• The large-scale lockup expiration triggered by the Q3 results in late October or early November 2026.
• Details related to Launch 13, including heat shield durability and the results of booster engine relighting.
• Whether future launch growth and launch pad plans support the high launch frequency target.
• Whether Starlink's recent operating performance and near-term financial data provide additional fundamental support.