2026 BofA China Auto Conference: Exports and battery demand remain strong, while domestic price competition and regulatory disruptions are still the main pressures

Overview

This report summarizes the key takeaways from Bank of America’s China conference held from May 11 to 13, 2026, with discussions covering auto OEMs, parts suppliers, dealers, batteries, Robotaxi, EVTOL, and electric two-wheeler companies. The core conclusion is that the Greater China auto supply chain still has strong overseas growth momentum; OEMs continue to expand overseas sales channels, capacity, and product portfolios; domestic competition remains intense, with price discounts and cost pressures suppressing profit upside; batteries and selected parts companies benefit from global demand, product upgrades, and cost pass-through; and Robotaxi is affected by regulation in the short term, though companies believe the long-term impact is limited.

Core views

First, OEM exports were the clearest positive signal at the conference. BYD expects 2026 overseas sales of 1.5 million units, with room to move higher; Chery’s overseas sales could reach 1.5 million to 1.8 million units; Geely has raised its 2026 export target from 640,000 units to 750,000 units; and GWM is likely to achieve 600,000 overseas units. Second, overseas localization and premiumization are the keys to profit improvement: BYD’s capacity in Hungary and Indonesia, Geely’s asset-light partnerships in Brazil and Malaysia, and GWM’s profitability in Russia, Australia, and New Zealand all reflect this trend. Third, the parts segment is not broadly improving: ASP gains, overseas share expansion, and higher-value products support Fuyao, Shuanghuan, and Minth, but Nexteer and RoboSense still face price cuts and demand divergence. Fourth, battery demand is strong, with CALB and Kedali both mentioning 2026 shipment or revenue growth, though lithium salt and aluminum pricing remain potential constraints. Fifth, auto dealer new-car profitability remains under pressure, with discounts widening for Porsche, BMW, and Audi, and management teams broadly emphasizing volume discipline and disciplined discounting.

Analysis framework

The report uses a conference-note format, organizing management comments by industry-chain segment and company to assess 2026 sales, orders, pricing, gross margins, capacity, overseas expansion, product cycles, and the regulatory environment. The analysis focuses not on a single valuation model, but on company guidance, regional sales, product mix, cost pass-through, price discounts, and technology paths to judge sector momentum and profit direction.

Methodology notes

• Conference NotesManagement discussion highlights summary

  Extract operating trends from management remarks made at investor conferences.

  Useful for judging short- to medium-term orders, sales, pricing, capacity, and profitability direction, but management comments may be optimistic and are not the same as formal financial guidance.

• Industry Chain AnalysisOEM-parts-battery-channel segmentation

  Break the auto industry chain into OEMs, parts, batteries, dealers, Robotaxi, EVTOL, and E2W.

  This segmentation helps identify which links are affected by exports, price competition, cost pass-through, and end-demand changes.

• Operating MetricsTracking sales, ASP, gross margin, and capacity utilization

  Use shipment volume, average selling price, price discounts, gross margin, orders, and capacity as core indicators.

  The report repeatedly cites 2026 sales targets, overseas sales, price-cut magnitude, ASP growth, gross margin, and battery GWh shipment targets to assess company momentum.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BYD (1211 HK / 002594 CH / BYDDY US)

  The leading OEM and battery player, and one of the conference’s key focus companies

  Strengths

  Strong overseas demand, with 2026 overseas sales guidance of 1.5 million units and upside potential; premium brands and localized production are expected to improve per-vehicle profitability; fast-charging and blade-battery technologies remain differentiated.

  Weaknesses

  The domestic market was weak in 4M26, and depreciation/amortization plus capacity investment weighed on 1Q26 profits; second-generation blade battery capacity is constrained in the near term.

  Comparison

  Compared with most OEMs, BYD combines OEM, charging network, battery, and ESS capabilities.

  Risks

  Overseas policy changes, domestic price competition, depreciation/amortization pressure, and raw material volatility.

• Chery (9973 HK)

  A representative of export growth and overseas HEV expansion

  Strengths

  Strong overseas sales momentum, with 2026 overseas sales potentially reaching 1.5 million to 1.8 million units; HEV and PHEV penetration is increasing in Europe, the UK, and other markets.

  Weaknesses

  Domestic sales targets were lowered versus prior guidance, and domestic EVs may still be slightly loss-making; higher storage and battery costs are putting pressure on unit costs.

  Comparison

  Compared with some peers, Chery has broad overseas coverage and much higher per-vehicle profit overseas than domestically.

  Risks

  Rising raw material costs, fluctuations in overseas regional demand, and domestic channel inventories and model competition.

• Geely (175 HK)

  A representative of raised export targets and an overseas asset-light model

  Strengths

  The 2026 export target was raised to 750k units; overseas gross margin is usually about 10 percentage points higher than domestic; capacity布局 in Brazil, Malaysia, Belarus, and other markets reduces capital burden.

  Weaknesses

  Growth in some premium models and iHEV exports will not become more visible until after 2027.

  Comparison

  Its asset-light overseas model differs from heavy capex self-built capacity and helps it expand channels and local supply more quickly.

  Risks

  Execution by overseas partners, model launch timing, regional policy changes, and FX volatility.

• Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

  A representative of overseas profitability and regional diversification

  Strengths

  Progress toward the 2026 target of 600k overseas units is smooth; profitability is solid in Russia, Australia and New Zealand, Brazil, and Southeast Asia; Tank and WEY brands are driving premiumization.

  Weaknesses

  Overseas sales still rely heavily on key markets such as Russia, and the share of some NEV brands remains low.

  Comparison

  GWM’s overseas dealer inventory is healthy, and Russia scrappage-tax rebates are expected to be confirmed in 2Q26.

  Risks

  Russian policy and rebate confirmation, regional concentration, overseas inventory, and product cycles.

• Fuyao (3606 HK / 600660 CH)

  An auto glass and high-value-added product supplier

  Strengths

  2Q26 sales are expected to grow both YoY and QoQ, and ASP growth may exceed the full-year target of 6%-7%; panoramic roofs, HUD, and electrochromic side windows support pricing.

  Weaknesses

  It still needs to negotiate additional rebates with OEMs; 1Q26 rebates were 1.17%.

  Comparison

  Compared with typical parts suppliers, Fuyao has stronger risk resilience due to share expansion in the US and Europe and insurance coverage for fire losses.

  Risks

  Larger OEM rebates, the pace of US phase-II capacity recovery, and changes in natural gas and freight costs.

• Nexteer (1316 HK)

  A steering and braking systems supplier

  Strengths

  1Q26 new orders reached USD1.6bn, putting the full-year USD6bn target on track; REPS extensions with North American clients and orders from BAIC and Geely are strong.

  Weaknesses

  Declining domestic demand in China and group-level price cuts still limit revenue and profit flexibility.

  Comparison

  High reliability requirements for electronics favor high-quality suppliers like Nexteer.

  Risks

  Price cuts in China, weaker-than-expected customer sales, and steel/aluminum/copper cost volatility.

• RoboSense (2498 HK)

  An ADAS and robotics LiDAR supplier

  Strengths

  2026 ADAS LiDAR shipment guidance is 1.5 million to 1.8 million units, and robot LiDAR shipments are expected to be 800k to 1 million units; Phoenix and Peacock SPAD-SoC chips are planned for mass production.

  Weaknesses

  The LiDAR industry is highly competitive, and ASP continues to face pressure.

  Comparison

  It is cushioning automotive price pressure by combining high- and low-price products and expanding into robotics applications.

  Risks

  ASP declines, mass-production timing, OEM win conversions, and uncertainty around robotics demand.

• CALB (3931 HK)

  A power and energy-storage battery supplier

  Strengths

  The 2026 battery shipment target is at least 180GWh, with strong ESS and commercial-vehicle demand; price pass-through is better than expected, and 1Q26 gross margin improved both YoY and QoQ.

  Weaknesses

  Rapid expansion requires strong execution and capital efficiency.

  Comparison

  Compared with a single-track power battery supplier, CALB has incremental upside from ESS orders and overseas OEM penetration.

  Risks

  Lithium salt and material prices, capacity utilization, customer concentration, and overseas certification progress.

• Kedali (002850 CH)

  A battery structural-part supplier and a potential humanoid-robot component supplier

  Strengths

  Downstream demand is strong in 2Q26, with QoQ growth of about 20%; overseas plant revenue is expected to grow 50% in FY26, and Hungarian capacity continues to expand.

  Weaknesses

  Overseas revenue growth is below prior expectations, with some customers delaying ramp-up; robot reducers are still awaiting PPA from key customers.

  Comparison

  The core battery structural-parts business provides certainty, while the robotics business remains an early-stage optionality.

  Risks

  Rising aluminum prices, customer ramp-up delays, the breakeven timing of overseas plants, and uncertainty in robot orders.

• Zhongsheng / Meidong / Yongda

  Auto dealer channels

  Strengths

  Some dealers are accelerating EV store rollouts and reducing losses by controlling volume and discount discipline.

  Weaknesses

  Discounts on traditional luxury brands have widened, and new-car gross margins are under pressure, with Porsche, BMW, and Audi all seeing varying degrees of pricing pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with upstream OEMs and battery makers, dealers are more sensitive to end-market discounts and OEM rebates.

  Risks

  Weak luxury-car demand, insufficient OEM rebates, inventory cycles, and wider discounts on new models.

Key data

• BYD 2026 overseas sales guidance1.5mn unitsManagement believes there is still upside, as overseas demand remains strong and delivery cycles are lengthening.
• BYD fast-charging station target20k by end-2026Currently around 6k stations, of which about 1k are along expressways.
• BYD ESS shipment target80-90GWh in 20262025 system ESS shipments were about 60GWh, ranking first globally.
• Chery 2026 overseas sales expectation1.5-1.8mn unitsHigher than the prior 1.5 million-unit guidance; April overseas sales were 176k units.
• Geely 2026 export target750k unitsRaised from 640k units; overseas per-vehicle profit is about RMB12k.
• GWM 2026 overseas sales target600k units4M26 overseas sales were 180k units, and April sales were 50k units.
• Leapmotor 2Q26E deliveries240-250k vehiclesStrong A10 orders, while A05 launch was delayed from 2Q26 to 3Q26.
• Nexteer 1Q26 new ordersUSD1.6bnThe full-year target is USD6bn, with continued momentum in REPS, RWS, CEPS, and SbW orders.
• RoboSense 2026 ADAS LiDAR shipment guidance1.5-1.8mn unitsASP still faces competitive pressure, partially offset by product mix improvement.
• CALB 2026 battery shipment targetat least 180GWhIncluding more than 110GWh of EV batteries and more than 70GWh of ESS batteries.
• CALB 2026 net margin target>5%This compares with 4.7% in 2025, supported by price pass-through and customer mix improvement.
• Yadea 2026 overseas sales guidance600-700k unitsPreviously 500k units; overseas losses are expected to narrow significantly.

Impact & implications

For investors, the main theme for the Greater China auto supply chain in 2026 is shifting from purely domestic sales competition to overseas scale-up, product premiumization, and supply-chain globalization. Among OEMs, companies with export channels, localized capacity, and premium brand portfolios are more likely to see profit improvement; among parts suppliers, companies with global customers, technology upgrades, and cost pass-through capability are more defensive; battery-chain demand remains strong, but material prices and the pace of capacity expansion need continued validation; and dealers as well as some smart-driving hardware companies are more exposed to price competition.

Risks

• Domestic auto market price competition may continue to intensify, squeezing profits for OEMs, parts suppliers, and dealers.
• Rising raw material costs, especially battery-related materials, aluminum, steel, copper, and storage-related costs, may pressure per-vehicle profits and parts gross margins.
• Overseas expansion is affected by policy, certification, tariffs, exchange rates, channel build-out, and localization execution, making sales targets uncertain.
• Robotaxi faces tighter short-term regulatory approvals and local self-inspections, and the pace of permit issuance may affect commercialization expansion.
• Price competition in LiDAR and other smart-driving hardware is intense, so shipment growth may not fully translate into profit growth.
• Luxury-car dealers may continue to post losses on new-car business due to wider discounts and insufficient OEM rebates.

What to watch

• BYD’s 1.5 million-unit overseas sales target, the ramp-up of the Hungary and Indonesia plants, and progress toward expanding fast-charging stations to 20k.
• Chery’s overseas HEV/PHEV penetration, demand in Europe and the UK, and whether 2026 overseas sales of 1.5 million to 1.8 million units can be achieved.
• Geely’s 750k-unit export target, local capacity in Brazil and Malaysia, and iHEV export growth in 2027.
• Confirmation of GWM’s Russian scrappage-tax rebate, overseas inventory levels, and contributions from premium brands such as Tank and WEY.
• Fuyao’s 2Q26 ASP and gross margin trends, the July recovery of US phase-II capacity, and OEM rebate negotiations.
• CALB’s 180GWh shipment target, ESS overseas orders, effective capacity above 200GWh by end-2026, and the achievement of net margin above 5%.
• RoboSense’s Phoenix and Peacock chip mass-production progress, and whether ADAS LiDAR and robot LiDAR ASPs continue to decline.
• Licensing approvals, fleet size, city coverage, and unit-economics breakeven for Pony AI, WeRide, and other Robotaxi players.
• Whether discounts for Porsche, BMW, and Audi improve after April, and whether OEM rebates get better.