Initiating coverage of RoboTechnik: optical-module equipment orders and CPO testing positioning support multi-year growth

Overview

The report initiates coverage of RoboTechnik and believes the company has expanded from photovoltaic equipment into AI optical communications and silicon photonics manufacturing equipment through its wholly owned German subsidiary, ficonTEC. The institution expects optical-module equipment to drive earnings growth in 2026–2027, while CPO testing equipment will become a more important long-term growth driver after 2027 as CPO penetration in AI networks increases.

Core views

The report believes the key change at RoboTechnik is its business focus shifting from photovoltaic equipment to silicon photonics and optical communications equipment. The company entered the optical manufacturing-equipment market through its investment in ficonTEC: it began investing in 2019, increased its stake to 93% in 2023, and completed the acquisition to obtain 100% ownership in 2025. The report states that the company ranked first in the global silicon photonics manufacturing-equipment market in 2024 with approximately 25.5% to 26% global market share. Its equipment covers coupling/alignment, stacking, laser welding, FAU assembly, and testing in optical-module manufacturing, and achieves high-precision alignment, fully automated production, and testing through proprietary control software and algorithms. Compared with listed competitors that mostly cover only certain process steps, the report considers this end-to-end capability a competitive advantage. The near-term growth thesis is mainly driven by demand for optical-module equipment. The institution's global technology team expects global pluggable Ethernet optical-module shipments to grow at a 46% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, reaching 330 million units in 2030. As speeds upgrade from 400G to 800G and 1.6T, and further toward 3.2T, optical alignment precision, packaging, and testing complexity increase, expanding demand for automated assembly and testing equipment. Channel research in the report indicates that every additional 1 million units of annualized 800G optical-module capacity typically requires CNY500 million to CNY600 million of equipment investment, while equipment capital expenditure for each generation of speed upgrade typically rises by 30% to 50%. Accordingly, the report estimates the global optical-module manufacturing-equipment market at approximately CNY31.0 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth of 40% and 27% in 2027 and 2028, respectively; under another measure, the market exceeds CNY30.0 billion in 2026, with a 67% CAGR from 2025 to 2028. The company's orders provide near-term evidence for this view. In the first seven months of 2026, the company's announced orders on hand totaled more than CNY1.7 billion, with optical-module-related equipment accounting for more than 70%; approximately CNY1.0 billion of orders came from a key U.S. optical-module customer, compared with the company's total 2025 revenue of CNY950 million. The report believes these customer orders reflect both overseas capacity-expansion demand and may have a demonstration effect on overseas factory construction by Chinese optical-module customers. Against a backdrop of lower labor efficiency and higher labor costs overseas, the efficiency and yield advantages of fully automated equipment are more attractive. The institution expects revenue from the company's optical-module equipment to grow at a 168% CAGR from 2025 to 2028, accounting for 46% of total revenue in 2026, 42% in 2027, and 33% in 2028. The second growth driver is CPO testing. The report notes that CPO mass production has stringent testing requirements: optical-loss tolerance is extremely low, and if failure occurs only after integration with an expensive switching ASIC, replacement costs are high. RoboTechnik is regarded as a key equipment supplier for insertion 2 and insertion 3 stages in Nvidia/TSMC CPO testing processes, with potential expansion to insertion 4. Insertion 2 is double-sided wafer testing after PIC and EIC bonding, combining electrical probes and optical coupling to assess modulation, eye diagrams, and optical loss; insertion 3 tests end-to-end performance, bit error rate, and thermal performance at the optical-engine die level; insertion 4 tests system performance, power consumption, and thermal stability of the packaged CPO and switching ASIC module. The report believes the company has high entry barriers and a first-mover advantage due to its ultra-high-precision alignment, testing experience, and deep customer collaboration with Nvidia and TSMC in CPO development. The institution expects CPO penetration in AI optical ports to rise from 6% in 2028 to 12% in 2029 and 17% in 2030, while equipment demand will precede end-market penetration by one to two years, mainly occurring in 2026–2027. The report expects CPO pilot runs to generate equipment demand, with CPO equipment revenue rising from 15% of total company revenue in 2026 to 38% in 2027 and 51% in 2028, representing a 277% revenue CAGR from 2025 to 2028. As CPO penetration in scale-up networks of AI server racks is expected to gain meaningful traction in 2028, the institution uses expected 2028 earnings per share as its valuation basis. The report also identifies OCS and FAU as long-term incremental opportunities. The company has received a trial order for OCS equipment from a Swiss customer; the institution believes that if Google's adoption of OCS in TPU rack networks progresses, OCS manufacturing-equipment demand could provide additional upside. Meanwhile, more fiber channels in each FAU could increase demand for automated alignment and assembly equipment. These opportunities are not the sole basis of the report's earnings forecasts, but are regarded as complementary long-term drivers beyond optical modules and CPO. Earnings improvement is expected to result from changes in both revenue mix and operating efficiency. The institution forecasts total revenue to increase from CNY950 million in 2025 to CNY2.065 billion in 2026, CNY5.982 billion in 2027, and CNY10.226 billion in 2028, representing a 121% CAGR from 2025 to 2028. Adjusted net profit is expected to turn from a CNY66 million loss in 2025 to a CNY144 million profit in 2026, and rise to CNY1.232 billion and CNY3.010 billion in 2027 and 2028. The report forecasts net margins of 7% in 2026, 21% in 2027, and 29% in 2028, while gross margin is expected to increase from 34.5% in 2025 to nearly 50% in 2028. The reasons are higher ASP products and economies of scale following volume growth in optical equipment; blended optical-equipment ASP is expected to rise from CNY3.7 million in 2025 to nearly CNY6.0 million in 2028, while CPO- and OCS-related equipment typically carries unit prices above CNY10 million. As revenue shifts from photovoltaic equipment with longer collection cycles to optical equipment, accounts receivable days are expected to decline from 244 days in 2025 to 77 days in 2028, improving cash conversion and operating cash flow. The photovoltaic-equipment business is expected to stabilize gradually in 2026–2028, supported by overseas project deliveries, while the company can progressively reallocate labor and manufacturing resources to silicon photonics, reducing the drag of the photovoltaic business on overall margins. For valuation, the report derives a CNY630 target price using 35x 2028 P/E. This multiple is in line with the average 2028 P/E of comparable optical-communications assembly and testing-equipment companies and slightly above the 31x P/E of comparable companies in the optical-module and component-manufacturing supply chain. The report believes the premium is justified by faster revenue and profit growth, the company's unique position in CPO insertion 2 and insertion 3 testing, and product coverage extending to low-earth-orbit satellite communications, automotive lidar, photovoltaics, and consumer-electronics silicon-photonics biosensing, which reduces dependence on a single end market. Based on the institution's estimates, the company's 2028 P/E is approximately 26.89x and PEG is 0.20x, below the 1.53x average for the overall peer group; 2026–2028 EPS CAGR is expected to be 357%, while ROE is expected to expand from 6% in 2024 to 51% in 2027.

Analysis framework

The report first reviews the silicon photonics equipment capabilities formed through the acquisition of ficonTEC, then uses optical-module shipments, capacity capital expenditure, orders, and automation penetration to demonstrate near-term demand. It subsequently analyzes CPO testing processes, penetration rates, and the front-loaded effect of equipment demand to support the medium- to long-term growth thesis. Earnings forecasts incorporate changes in revenue mix, equipment pricing, gross margin, and accounts receivable turnover, and the target price is ultimately derived using expected 2028 earnings per share and comparable-company P/E multiples.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodP/E and PEG valuation

  Valuation based on expected 2028 P/E and PEG

  As CPO is expected to gain meaningful traction from 2028, the report uses expected 2028 earnings per share as its basis and applies 35x P/E; it also compares a 0.20x PEG with the 1.53x peer average to assess the alignment between growth and valuation.

• Industry/sector analysis frameworkSupply-demand framework

  Estimating equipment demand from optical-module shipments, capacity expansion, and equipment capital expenditure

  The report links optical-module shipment growth, equipment investment required for speed upgrades, and automation penetration to derive the optical-module manufacturing-equipment market size and the company's equipment revenue opportunity.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• RoboTechnik (A)（300757）

  A beneficiary of demand for AI optical-module, CPO, OCS, and FAU manufacturing equipment, while undergoing a transition from photovoltaic equipment to silicon photonics equipment.

  Strengths

  Through its wholly owned subsidiary ficonTEC, the company has high-precision silicon photonics assembly and testing capabilities, an end-to-end product line, and automated production and testing capabilities; the report states that it holds a leading position in CPO insertion 2 and insertion 3 testing.

  Weaknesses

  Photovoltaic equipment remains its legacy business; industry weakness has previously weighed on overall profitability, and successful transformation depends on volume growth in optical equipment.

  Comparison

  The report states that most listed competitors cover only part of the optical-module manufacturing process. The company's 35x 2028 P/E is in line with the average for optical-communications assembly and testing-equipment peers and above the 31x multiple for optical-module and component-manufacturing supply-chain peers.

  Risks

  CPO and OCS commercialization or adoption may be slower than expected, optical-module manufacturers' capital expenditure may weaken, competition in automated optical-module manufacturing equipment may intensify, and the photovoltaic-equipment industry may remain weak.

Key data

• Target price and current priceCNY630.00; CNY483.01Initiation with a Buy rating; the target price implies 30% potential upside.
• Announced orders on hand in the first seven months of 2026More than CNY1.7 billionOptical-module-related equipment accounted for more than 70%, with approximately CNY1.0 billion from a key U.S. optical-module customer.
• Global silicon photonics equipment market shareApproximately 25.5% to 26%The report states that the company ranked first globally in 2024 through ficonTEC.
• Global pluggable optical-module shipment growth46% CAGR from 2025–2030; 330 million units in 2030The report uses this to support growth in capital expenditure for optical-module manufacturing equipment.
• Optical-module manufacturing-equipment marketApproximately CNY31.0 billion in 2026Expected to grow 40% and 27% year on year in 2027 and 2028, respectively.
• CPO penetration in AI optical ports6% in 2028, 12% in 2029, 17% in 2030The report expects equipment demand to emerge one to two years before penetration.
• Adjusted net profitCNY144 million in 2026; CNY1.232 billion in 2027; CNY3.010 billion in 2028A loss of CNY66 million was recorded in 2025.
• Revenue and margins121% revenue CAGR from 2025–2028; gross margin rises from 34.5% in 2025 to nearly 50% in 2028Mainly driven by volume growth in optical equipment, higher ASPs, and economies of scale.
• Valuation parameters35x 2028 P/E; 0.20x PEGThe 35x multiple is in line with the average 2028 level for comparable optical-communications assembly and testing-equipment companies.

Impact & implications

The report believes the company is transforming from photovoltaic equipment to optical communications and silicon photonics equipment: optical-module equipment orders and automation demand will be the primary profit sources in 2026–2027, while CPO testing equipment, if delivered in line with increasing penetration, will become a more important long-term revenue driver after 2027. The upgraded revenue mix is also expected to raise equipment pricing, gross margin, and collection efficiency, while reducing the drag from the photovoltaic business on overall profitability.

Risks

• CPO and OCS adoption and commercialization may progress more slowly than expected.
• The capital expenditure cycle of optical-module producers may be weaker than expected.
• Competition in automated optical-module manufacturing equipment may intensify.
• Weakness in the photovoltaic-equipment industry may persist for longer.