April Chinese hospital equipment tenders remain weak, with domestic brands increasingly dependent on overseas growth

Overview

This report tracks tender data for nine major medical device categories in Chinese hospitals in April 2026 and maps the results to investment views on Chinese medical device companies such as Mindray and United Imaging. The core conclusion is that sector bidding remains in a weak cycle, with total tender amounts down 34% year-on-year in April; both a high base and weaker cyclical demand from the hospital side have pressured procurement. Industry recovery in the near term may be postponed to 2H26 or 1H27. At the same time, patient monitors are gradually entering a replacement cycle after heavy installations during the COVID period, and the broader coverage of trade-in replacement funding supports comparatively better demand performance.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes weakness in Chinese medical device tenders persists and recovery in hospital procurement in China is not yet well-anchored. April did not replicate March’s pattern in which multinationals outperformed domestic brands in winning bids; instead, both domestic brands and multinational firms were weak. In an environment where domestic substitution headroom is gradually shrinking and hospital tender demand is weakening, domestic players need to rely more on overseas expansion for growth. For individual names, Mindray benefits from patient monitoring, medical imaging, IVD, and low-share overseas expansion, while United Imaging benefits from large medical imaging equipment, a rising share of service revenue, and broader global coverage.

Analysis framework

The report uses a bottom-up monthly hospital tender data tracking approach covering patient monitors, ultrasound, endoscopy, CT, MRI, PET-CT, DR, LINAC, and DSA/IGT (nine categories), and combines year-on-year changes, category divergence, brand-winning performance, regional revenue mix, and company earnings forecasts to assess industry cyclicality and listed-company revenue growth, margin and valuation upside. Company target prices are derived using a two-stage DCF framework.

Methodology notes

• Industry trackingHospital equipment tender data tracking

  Use monthly tender amounts to gauge hospital equipment procurement momentum

  The report tracks tender amounts and year-on-year changes for nine major medical devices on the Chinese hospital side to assess equipment demand cycles and category-level sentiment.

• Valuation methodsTwo-stage DCF

  Calculate 12-month target prices using discounted cash flow

  Mindray’s 12-month target price of Rmb247 is based on a two-stage DCF, with a terminal growth rate of 2% and WACC of 9.5%; United Imaging’s 12-month target price of Rmb172 is based on a two-stage DCF with a discount rate of 9% and a terminal growth rate of 2%.

• Factor analysisGS Factor Profile

  Compare stock attributes across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples and a combined score

  The Goldman Sachs factor framework uses analyst forecasts to compute percentile ranks for growth, financial returns, and valuation multiples, then combines them into an overall percentile to provide context versus the broader market and industry peers.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Assess the likelihood of a company becoming an M&A target

  Goldman Sachs’ M&A Rank uses a scale of 1 to 3, where 3 indicates a lower probability of being a takeover target and is usually not included in target price assumptions; the report assigns both Mindray and United Imaging an M&A Rank of 3.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Mindray（300760.SZ）

  A leading Chinese medical device company, with Buy rating maintained in the report

  Strengths

  Multi-category footprint across patient monitoring, medical imaging and IVD; overseas market share is still low and products have cost-performance advantages; expected to maintain market leadership.

  Weaknesses

  China revenue was pressured in 2025, with some businesses such as PMLS, medical imaging and IVD showing year-on-year declines; valuation below the 5-year average forward P/E mainly reflects policy risk.

  Comparison

  Compared with a single large imaging-equipment company, Mindray has a more diversified category mix and larger overseas revenue scale, but is also more directly exposed to the Chinese hospital procurement cycle.

  Risks

  VBP may compress ex-factory prices, progress in penetrating top-tier Chinese hospitals may be slower than expected, entering North America and Europe may be challenging, patent litigation risk, and trade policy changes.

• United Imaging（688271.SS）

  A large Chinese medical imaging equipment leader, with Buy rating maintained in the report

  Strengths

  Leading provider of large medical imaging systems, with operations in more than 100 countries; China market share continues to rise, and a higher share of service revenue is expected to improve gross margins.

  Weaknesses

  More sensitive to procurement cycles for large imaging systems; valuation is near the listed median P/E since IPO, requiring stronger realization of revenue, gross margin, and net margin growth.

  Comparison

  Compared with Mindray, United Imaging is more concentrated in large imaging systems, with long-term growth potential coming from global expansion, service-revenue uplift, and rollout of an ultrasound product line.

  Risks

  Chip supply-chain risks, raw-material risks such as helium, Chinese macroeconomic slowdown, and potential VBP-related risks.

• Chinese medical device sector

  Core industry cycle indicator covered by the report

  Strengths

  Old-for-old replacement policy and equipment replacement cycles provide support for certain categories; domestic leaders have opportunities for overseas expansion.

  Weaknesses

  Tender amounts for nine device categories in April were down 34% year-on-year, hospital-side demand remains weak, and recovery timing may be delayed.

  Comparison

  Patient monitors performed better than multiple categories with year-on-year declines, including CT, MRI, DR, LINAC, and endoscopy.

  Risks

  High base effect, weakening hospital procurement cycles, cost-control policy pressure, and shrinking domestic substitution space.

Key data

• Year-on-year tender amount for nine major medical device categories in April-34%The report says April tender data remained weak, pressured by a high base and weakening cyclical demand.
• Industry recovery timing outlook2H26 or 1H27Goldman Sachs maintains its prior forecast that industry improvement is unlikely before 2H26 and may even be delayed to 1H27.
• Patient monitor year-on-year performanceMore than 20% year-on-year growth for two consecutive monthsThe report believes this category has a shorter replacement cycle and that the coverage of old-for-new replacement funding has expanded.
• Mindray 2024 China revenue share55%The report states Mindray is China’s leading medical device manufacturer, covering patient monitoring, medical imaging and IVD.
• United Imaging FY25 total revenueRmb13,800mnThe table shows FY25 revenue rose 34.0% year-on-year, and FY26E revenue is expected to reach Rmb16,469mn, up 19.3% year-on-year.
• United Imaging overseas revenue growthFY25 yoy +51.4%；FY26E yoy +38.5%Overseas revenue increased from Rmb2,266mn in FY24 to Rmb3,431mn in FY25, with FY26E expected at Rmb4,752mn.
• Mindray FY26E total revenueRmb36,067mnThe table shows FY26E revenue up 8% year-on-year, with China revenue expected to grow 3% year-on-year and overseas revenue expected to grow 13% year-on-year.
• Mindray target price and upsideRmb247；44.8%Current price is Rmb170.61; rating is Buy.
• United Imaging target price and upsideRmb172；48.4%Current price is Rmb115.94; rating is Buy.

Impact & implications

For the medical equipment sector, the April tender data indicate that recovery in Chinese hospital procurement remains unstable and near-term earnings sensitivity may continue to be under pressure; however, categories with shorter replacement cycles such as patient monitors may improve first. For domestic leaders, after domestic substitution tailwinds begin to narrow, expansion in overseas markets, broader product lines, higher service-revenue contribution, and cost-performance advantages are expected to become more important long-term growth drivers.

Risks

• VBP policies may compress ex-factory prices of some products.
• The pace of penetration into top-tier Chinese hospitals may be slower than expected.
• Entry into North American and European markets may be more difficult than expected.
• Patent litigation and trade policy changes may affect overseas expansion.
• United Imaging faces chip supply-chain, raw materials such as helium, macroeconomic, and potential VBP-related risks.
• Recovery in Chinese hospital equipment procurement may continue to be delayed, and industry improvement may occur later than 2H26.

What to watch

• Whether future monthly Chinese hospital equipment tender data stabilize.
• Whether demand for patient monitors can maintain a high level.
• The funding scope and execution intensity of the medical equipment trade-in replacement policy.
• Progress in Mindray’s overseas revenue growth, product launches, and penetration of top-tier hospitals.
• United Imaging’s service-revenue mix, gross margin improvement, and launch of ultrasound product lines.
• Changes in winning share in hospital tenders between domestic brands and multinational firms.