Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy on Suzhou Maxwell Technologies and raises the 12-month target price to Rmb278

Overview

After attending Suzhou Maxwell Technologies' post-4Q25/1Q26 results meeting, Goldman Sachs became more confident in the sustainability of the company's strong 2026 order momentum and high profitability. The report focuses on FY26 order guidance, overseas HJT demand, semiconductor equipment orders, the gross margin mix of unrecognized orders, and progress in new PSC equipment applications.

Core views

The core view is that the company maintains FY26 order guidance at Rmb10bn, up 67% YoY; solar orders are expected to reach Rmb6bn, mainly from overseas turnkey solutions; and semiconductor orders are expected to more than double to Rmb4bn. Management believes HJT technology in overseas markets is cost-competitive due to fewer process steps, higher labor productivity, and lower water usage, with overseas HJT cell equipment demand in 2026-2027 expected to be at least 10GW per year. In terms of margins, the high-gross-margin mix of overseas and semiconductor orders supports gross margin remaining at a high level in subsequent quarters.

Analysis framework

The report uses management guidance from the earnings meeting as the core input, and updates earnings forecasts and target price by combining order segment mix, unrecognized order structure, 1Q26 operating results, gross margin differences, new technology R&D pathways, and valuation assumptions. Valuation uses a 2027E EV/EBITDA multiple and discounts it back to 2026E.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsEV/EBITDA target price method

  The 12-month target price is based on 22x 2027E EV/EBITDA, discounted back to 2026E at an 8.3% cost of equity.

  Goldman Sachs assigns 15x and 85x EV/EBITDA to the core business and new application orders, respectively, and weights them by a 90%/10% EBITDA mix to derive the Rmb278 target price.

• Earnings forecastOrder mix and gross margin forecasting

  Future gross margin and EBITDA are derived from overseas orders, semiconductor orders, and the mix of unrecognized orders.

  Gross margins for overseas and semiconductor orders are about 53% and 46%, respectively, both above the roughly 32% gross margin of domestic solar equipment in 2025; therefore, the improved order mix is the main basis for the upward earnings revision.

• Risk-rewardRelative rating within coverage

  The Buy rating reflects total return potential relative to the coverage universe.

  Goldman Sachs believes the company holds a leading position in HJT technology and screen-printing equipment, and that improved new-application orders enhance the risk-reward profile.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• 300751.SZ

  Covered stock; the company is Suzhou Maxwell Technologies.

  Strengths

  Global leader in screen-printing equipment, with market share above 80% since 2018; leading HJT solar cell technology with market share above 70%; higher gross margins for overseas and semiconductor orders.

  Weaknesses

  Still faces pressure from declining solar capex in China and slower demand under the anti-involution environment; 1Q26 order momentum was relatively slow.

  Comparison

  Relative to the coverage universe, the company holds a leading position in HJT equipment and screen-printing equipment, while new-application orders bring higher growth and earnings elasticity.

  Risks

  Weaker-than-expected demand for new applications, tighter export controls on solar equipment, and slower-than-expected development of the semiconductor business.

Key data

• FY26 order guidanceRmb10bn, up 67% YoYManagement maintained the original guidance unchanged.
• FY26 solar ordersRmb6bn, up 50% YoYAll from overseas turnkey solutions.
• FY26 semiconductor ordersAbove Rmb4bnAbout Rmb2bn each from front-end and back-end equipment.
• 1Q26 gross margin51%Management expects recognized gross margin in subsequent quarters may remain high.
• PSC equipment order valueAbout Rmb500mnThe company targets delivery of another 8-10 production lines in 2026.
• Multi-junction PSC investmentRmb3.5bnThe company announced investment in full-line multi-junction PSC solar cell equipment.
• EBITDA forecast revision2026E-2030E average raised by 42%Reflects higher margins driven by overseas and semiconductor orders.
• Target priceRmb278Previous target price was Rmb263.

Impact & implications

If the order and margin guidance is delivered, the company's revenue and earnings elasticity in 2026 will mainly come from overseas solar equipment, semiconductor equipment, and new PSC applications. Goldman Sachs' upward revision to long-term EBITDA forecasts implies that the market's valuation focus may shift from declining domestic solar capex to the sustainability of overseas HJT demand, new semiconductor businesses, and the high-margin order mix.

Risks

• Demand for new applications is slower than expected, which may weaken pilot capex sentiment and create order cancellation risk.
• Tighter export controls on solar equipment may materially weaken the company's earnings outlook.
• The semiconductor industry's development may be slower than expected; if the company cannot continue to win orders or pauses development of emerging businesses, there is downside risk to earnings forecasts.
• A prolonged downcycle in China's solar capex may affect domestic equipment demand.
• Rising silver and indium prices may increase raw material cost pressure related to HJT.

What to watch

• Whether FY26 orders reach the Rmb10bn guidance.
• Whether overseas HJT equipment demand can remain at at least 10GW per year.
• Whether actual gross margins after recognition of overseas and semiconductor orders are close to management expectations.
• Whether the 2026 target of delivering 8-10 PSC equipment production lines is achieved.
• Whether the unit economics of multi-junction PSC technology can approach silicon-based module levels by the end of 2027.
• Changes in export controls, localization of overseas manufacturing, and China's solar capex environment.