Pop Mart's offline SSSG turned to -16% in June, while China's IP retail peers remained broadly resilient

Overview

This report is Deutsche Bank's monthly offline sales tracking for China's IP retail industry, using alternative data to analyze offline sales trends of major IP retailers in mainland China. The report emphasizes that industry performance diverged clearly in June 2026: Pop Mart's offline same-store sales continued to deteriorate, while most peers including Miniso, Top Toy, Kule Pop Toys, KKV, The Green Party, and Kayou maintained positive growth. The report notes that these data do not represent companies' official revenue, but are used to observe brand momentum and offline consumption trends.

Core views

The core view is that Pop Mart's offline demand is rapidly normalizing after the strong IP cycle in 2025. Improved inventory availability has weakened the traffic driven by scarcity, and new products such as Labubu 4.0 are unlikely to fully offset the slowdown pressure in the short term. By contrast, Miniso's China business remains resilient despite weak consumer conditions, with its large-store strategy and IP execution supporting a sales recovery; although Top Toy improved sequentially, its quarterly performance remained negative, and competitive pressure and traffic diversion persist. At the industry level, the June data indicate that China's IP retail is not broadly weak; rather, Pop Mart's high base and fading popularity issues are more pronounced.

Analysis framework

The report tracks monthly offline sales in China's IP retail market, comparing major retailers' same-store sales growth, quarterly same-store sales performance, and monthly sales per store, while also assessing brand momentum through feedback on new products, inventory conditions, secondary-market prices, and social media checks. The key comparison set includes Pop Mart, Miniso, Top Toy, Kule Pop Toys, KKV, The Green Party, and Kayou.

Methodology notes

• Alternative dataChina IP retail offline sales tracking

  Using third-party alternative data to observe the offline sales performance of major IP retailers in mainland China.

  This method is used to capture brand momentum and offline sales trends, but the report explicitly states that the relevant data are not companies' official revenue data.

• Operating metricSame-store sales growth

  SSSG measures the YoY change in sales of comparable stores.

  The report uses monthly and quarterly SSSG to compare the offline sales trends of Pop Mart, Miniso, Top Toy, and other peers, highlighting Pop Mart's shift from high growth to negative growth.

• Operating metricMonthly sales per store

  Using monthly sales per store to measure the sales intensity of offline stores.

  The report compares monthly sales per store for companies such as Pop Mart and Miniso with their historical peaks to judge whether offline demand is weakening or recovering.

• Product feedbackChecks on new products and social media feedback

  Assessing IP popularity by combining new product launches, inventory availability, secondary-market prices, and social media feedback.

  The report believes feedback on THE MONSTERS × FIFA Series and Labubu 4.0 was relatively disappointing, while feedback on Dimoo World x Pixar was more positive though the audience remains relatively concentrated.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Pop Mart

  Primary tracked name; the weakest-performing IP retailer in this period

  Strengths

  THE MONSTERS, Twinkle Twinkle, and Crybaby remain the top three IPs; social media feedback on Dimoo World x Pixar was relatively positive.

  Weaknesses

  June SSSG fell 16% YoY and 2Q26 turned negative; Labubu 4.0 failed to fully offset slowing demand; fuller inventory weakened scarcity-driven traffic.

  Comparison

  Significantly weaker than peers such as Miniso, Top Toy, Kule Pop Toys, KKV, The Green Party, and Kayou.

  Risks

  Demand normalization after the strong IP cycle in 2025, softer secondary-market prices, insufficient excitement around new products, and difficulty reaccelerating traffic in the second half.

• Miniso

  Comparable China IP and lifestyle retail name

  Strengths

  June SSSG grew 3% YoY and 2Q26 also grew 3%; the large-store strategy and IP execution supported sales recovery.

  Weaknesses

  The consumer backdrop remains weak, and overseas growth and profit growth still need to deliver on management guidance.

  Comparison

  More resilient than Pop Mart, with a sturdier recovery in offline sales.

  Risks

  Store expansion execution, competition in IP products, a weak consumer environment, and FX impact.

• Top Toy

  Miniso's IP retail brand and a comparable peer

  Strengths

  June SSSG improved from -13% in May to +4%, showing sequential recovery.

  Weaknesses

  2Q26 SSSG was still -2%, and monthly sales per store were only 84% of the May peak.

  Comparison

  Better than Pop Mart on a single-month basis, but quarterly performance remained weaker than Miniso's China business.

  Risks

  Traffic diversion, intense competition from similar IP products, and unstable recovery.

• Kule Pop Toys、KKV、The Green Party、Kayou

  Sample of China IP retail peers

  Strengths

  Most posted positive June SSSG, with Kayou rebounding to +46%.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide more detailed data on profitability, stores, or product mix.

  Comparison

  Overall performance was clearly better than Pop Mart, indicating the industry is not broadly weak.

  Risks

  Alternative data coverage is limited, and strong single-month growth may be affected by base effects, promotions, or sample changes.

Key data

• Pop Mart June SSSG-16% YoYFurther deterioration from -6% in May.
• Pop Mart 2Q26 SSSG-4% YoYSlowed sharply from +42% in 1Q26 and +41% in 4Q25.
• Pop Mart monthly sales per storeRmb1.20mn per storeDown 5% MoM, only 83% of the January peak.
• Miniso China June SSSG+3% YoYBroadly stable versus +4% in May.
• Miniso 2Q26 SSSG+3% YoYShows a positive trend within the sample.
• Miniso monthly sales per storeRmb375k per storeEquivalent to 93% of the 2025 peak.
• Miniso management 1H26 revenue guidance+20-22% YoYIncluding 21-22% growth in China and high-teens growth overseas.
• Miniso FY26 guidanceHigh-teens revenue growth; 450-500 net new stores globally; about 10% adjusted operating profit growthOperating profit growth excludes FX impact.
• Top Toy June SSSG+4% YoYImproved significantly from -13% in May.
• Top Toy 2Q26 SSSG-2% YoYStill negative for the quarter, indicating an uneven recovery.
• Top Toy monthly sales per store84% of May peakStill below the recent peak.
• June SSSG of major IP retailersPop Mart -16%; Miniso +3%; Top Toy +4%; Kule Pop Toys +4%; KKV +2%; The Green Party +4%; Kayou +46%Data source: Jiuqian and Deutsche Bank estimates.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that the market needs to distinguish between industry demand and the cycle of individual leading brands. The June data do not support the view that China's IP retail is weakening across the board, because most peers still posted positive growth; however, Pop Mart's high base, demand fatigue, declining inventory scarcity, and insufficient support from new products may weigh on expectations for a reacceleration of its offline sales in the second half. For Miniso, the resilience of its China business and execution of its store strategy are relatively positive signals; for Top Toy, a single month turning positive is still insufficient to confirm a trend recovery.

Risks

• The alternative data used in the report are not equivalent to companies' official revenue and need to be cross-checked against company disclosures and subsequent operating data.
• If feedback on Pop Mart's new products remains weak, the anticipated reacceleration in offline traffic and sales in 2H26 may fail to materialize.
• Greater inventory availability may weaken scarcity-driven purchasing behavior and secondary-market enthusiasm.
• Competition in the IP retail category is intense, and brands such as Top Toy still face traffic diversion and product homogeneity.
• A weak consumer environment may suppress the overall pace of offline retail recovery.
• Monthly SSSG may be affected by high base effects, promotions, new product timing, and sample changes.

What to watch

• Whether Pop Mart's new products in 2H26 can drive traffic again, especially products related to THE MONSTERS, Labubu, Dimoo, Twinkle Twinkle, and Crybaby.
• Whether inventory, secondary-market prices, and repurchase feedback improve for Labubu 4.0 and THE MONSTERS × FIFA Series.
• Whether Pop Mart's subsequent monthly SSSG remains negative and whether monthly sales per store can return to around the January peak.
• Whether Miniso China's large-store strategy and IP execution continue to support positive SSSG growth.
• Whether Top Toy's June return to positive growth can continue into subsequent months and on a quarterly basis.
• Whether Kayou's high growth is sustainable, and whether peers such as Kule Pop Toys, KKV, and The Green Party continue to maintain positive growth.
• Delivery against Miniso's 1H26 and FY26 guidance for revenue, store openings, and adjusted operating profit.