China semiconductor equipment imports fell 1% yoy in June, but rebounded 45% mom

Overview

This report tracks semiconductor equipment demand and global equipment vendors' sales trends in China through monthly China customs import data. China accounted for 33.5% of global WFE in 2025, so China import data is a useful reference for assessing global semicap vendors' China business. In June 2026, China's semiconductor equipment imports totaled $4.7bn, down 1% year over year and up 45% month over month; the 3-month moving average declined 3% year over year and rose 1% month over month, below the historical average June 3MMA month-over-month increase of +5%.

Core views

The core conclusion is that June saw a significant month-over-month rebound, but was still slightly down year over year, and 2026 year to date remains down 9%, consistent with expectations from most semiconductor equipment suppliers that China sales are normalizing. Front-end equipment was relatively stronger, up 1% year over year and 57% month over month in June; among these, lithography, heat treatment, process control, and other front-end categories showed better growth, while etching, ion implantation, and deposition declined year over year. Back-end and supporting categories were generally weaker, with A&P, wafer manufacturing, flat panel display, spares, and testing equipment mostly down year over year, though wire bonders surged 153% year over year.

Analysis framework

The report is structured around monthly China customs import value, import volume, ASP, year-over-year, month-over-month, quarter-over-quarter, year-to-date performance, and 3-month moving averages, broken down by major equipment categories, and cross-checks front-end equipment imports against China equipment sales disclosed by five major semiconductor equipment companies.

Methodology notes

• data_trackingChina customs import tracker

  China customs semiconductor equipment import data

  Uses monthly China customs import data to track semiconductor equipment import value, volume, and ASP in order to observe demand in the China market and China sales trends of global equipment vendors.

• time_series3MMA

  3-month moving average

  The report uses 3MMA to smooth monthly volatility and compares year-over-year, month-over-month, and historical seasonal performance.

• cross_checkSupplier disclosed China sales comparison

  Cross-check with equipment suppliers' disclosed sales

  China equipment sales disclosed by the five major semiconductor equipment companies are approximately equal to about 75% of total China customs front-end equipment imports on an annual basis, and range from 58% to 85% on a quarterly basis; therefore, import data can serve as a useful indicator of suppliers' China sales trends.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global semiconductor equipment suppliers

  China customs front-end equipment imports can serve as a proxy indicator for China sales trends

  Strengths

  Total imports rebounded sharply month over month in June, with front-end equipment up 57% month over month; China sales disclosed by the five major equipment companies show a high degree of correspondence with front-end imports.

  Weaknesses

  Overall YTD remains down 9% year over year, and front-end YTD is down 10% year over year, reflecting normalization pressure on China sales.

  Comparison

  China sales disclosed by the five major suppliers are approximately 75% of total annual customs front-end equipment imports, with a quarterly range of 58% to 85%.

  Risks

  There are timing differences between customs data and companies' revenue recognition, and changes in product mix, ASP, and import sources may weaken the explanatory power of single-month data.

• Lithography

  Lithography was one of the front-end categories with the most pronounced month-over-month rebound in June

  Strengths

  June imports were $842mm, up 3% year over year and 184% month over month; Dutch lithography tools accounted for 95% of total lithography import value.

  Weaknesses

  2Q26 lithography imports were down 13% year over year and 25% quarter over quarter; YTD was down 18% year over year.

  Comparison

  The correlation between Dutch lithography tool imports and ASML's disclosed China equipment sales has been 95% since 2015.

  Risks

  ASP is highly volatile, and policy restrictions, shipment timing, and single-month base effects may lead to data fluctuations.

• Deposition

  A core front-end equipment category, with June year-over-year weakness but improved quarterly performance

  Strengths

  2Q26 imports were up 9% year over year and 43% quarter over quarter; 2025 deposition imports were $8.3bn, up 8% year over year.

  Weaknesses

  June imports were down 12% year over year, and ASP declined both year over year and month over month.

  Comparison

  The report notes that deposition's share of global WFE has remained at 19% to 26% for many years, while AMAT has maintained a leading market share of 37% to 48% over the long term.

  Risks

  Declining ASP and changes in China's procurement pace may affect the quality of equipment vendors' revenue.

• Etching

  A core front-end equipment category, still weak year over year in June

  Strengths

  June imports rose 32% month over month, while import volume increased 4% year over year and 24% month over month.

  Weaknesses

  June imports were down 24% year over year, 2Q26 was down 28% year over year, and YTD was down 19% year over year.

  Comparison

  Compared with lithography and process control, etching showed notably weaker year-over-year performance in June.

  Risks

  ASP fell 27% year over year, and if sustained, could weigh on revenue and margin assessments.

• Assembly and packaging equipment

  A tracking indicator for back-end equipment demand

  Strengths

  Up 21% month over month in June, with wire bonders up 153% year over year.

  Weaknesses

  A&P overall was down 6% year over year in June, and YTD fell 14% year over year to $1.9bn.

  Comparison

  Wire bonders stood out in June year-over-year and 3MMA performance, while mounting and bonding was down 9% year over year.

  Risks

  There is significant divergence within back-end categories, and a single strong segment may not represent an overall demand recovery.

Key data

• China semiconductor equipment imports in June$4.7bnDown 1% year over year and up 45% month over month; above the past 3-month average of $3.9bn and the past 12-month average of $4.4bn.
• June 3MMA performance-3% yoy, +1% momBelow the historical average June 3MMA month-over-month increase of +5%.
• Overall import performance YTD 2026-9% yoyThe report states that after June, the YTD decline for 2026 was -9%.
• June front-end equipment imports$3.4bnUp 1% year over year and 57% month over month.
• YTD 2026 front-end equipment imports$15.5bnDown 10% year over year; lithography, etching, other front-end, process control, and ion implantation were drags, while heat treatment grew and deposition was flat.
• June lithography imports$842mmUp 3% year over year and 184% month over month; 2Q26 imports were down 13% year over year and 25% quarter over quarter.
• June deposition imports$831mmDown 12% year over year and up 17% month over month; 2Q26 was up 9% year over year and 43% quarter over quarter.
• June etching imports$505mmDown 24% year over year and up 32% month over month; 2Q26 was down 28% year over year and 5% quarter over quarter.
• June process control imports$444mmUp 24% year over year and 41% month over month.
• June A&P imports$415mmDown 6% year over year and up 21% month over month; YTD fell 14% year over year to $1.9bn.
• Dutch lithography tool share95%In June 2026, Dutch lithography tools accounted for 95% of total lithography import value; since December 2023, over about 90% of China's monthly lithography tool imports have come from the Netherlands.
• Japan import share25%In 2026 YTD, Japan accounted for 25% of China's total semiconductor equipment imports.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, the June month-over-month rebound shows that demand for semiconductor equipment imports in China is not weakening linearly, with particularly strong performance in lithography, process control, heat treatment, and some back-end wire bonders; however, year-over-year and YTD data still indicate normalization pressure, implying that global semicap companies' China revenue may continue to face high-base effects and structural divergence. The heavy reliance of lithography imports on the Netherlands means ASML and Dutch lithography tool data remain important signals for monitoring the pace of advanced manufacturing and equipment procurement in China.

Risks

• Single-month import data can be highly volatile and may be affected by shipment timing, customs clearance, and revenue recognition timing.
• Customs import value and equipment vendors' financial revenue are not perfectly comparable metrics, with differences in quarterly and annual matching.
• China's semiconductor equipment imports are still down YTD, indicating that high-base effects and sales normalization pressure have not yet dissipated.
• Lithography imports are highly concentrated in the Netherlands and may be affected by export controls, product mix, and ASP changes.
• The report is an industry data tracker, not a stock-specific investment recommendation or rating conclusion.

What to watch

• Whether China's semiconductor equipment imports in subsequent months can sustain the June month-over-month rebound.
• Whether 3MMA year-over-year and month-over-month metrics improve from currently weak levels.
• Year-to-date year-over-year changes in key front-end categories such as lithography, deposition, etching, and process control.
• The degree of alignment between Dutch lithography tool imports and ASML's disclosed China sales.
• Whether strength in back-end categories such as A&P, wire bonders, and testing equipment broadens into overall improvement.
• Changes in guidance from major global semicap suppliers regarding normalization of China sales.