Strong momentum in Chinese auto exports: up 79% yoy in Q2 2026, with EVs accounting for more than half

Overview

This report tracks China's auto export performance in Q2 and the first half of 2026. The core conclusion is that export momentum continues to strengthen: new passenger vehicle exports reached 2.51 million units in Q2 2026, up 79% yoy, accelerating further from 64% in Q1 2026 and 43% in Q4 2025; exports accounted for 37.0% of China's wholesale auto volume. EV exports grew significantly faster than ICE exports, and Chinese brands continued to increase their market share across multiple overseas regions.

Core views

Bernstein remains cautious on China's domestic auto industry, expecting subsidy reductions, higher EV purchase taxes, demand pulled forward, a high base, macroeconomic pressure and materials cost inflation to weigh on domestic sales. However, the report maintains a constructive view on long-term EV penetration and the export potential of Chinese automakers, viewing overseas markets as an important strategic opportunity for Chinese OEMs to ease domestic competition, access higher-profit pools and expand scale.

Analysis framework

The report primarily draws on CAAM, China Customs and regional market data, tracking export volume, powertrain mix, destination regions, OEM rankings, overseas market share and the international performance of key automakers. It also explains differences in growth by considering tariffs, oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, regional localization and brand expansion.

Methodology notes

• Industry Data TrackingChina Auto Export Tracking Framework

  Break down export performance by powertrain, region and OEM

  The report cross-references CAAM's new vehicle export data with China Customs' new and used vehicle export data, breaking down growth, market share and structural changes by ICE, BEV, PHEV, destination region and major OEM.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BYD

  Leading Chinese EV exporter and key covered name

  Strengths

  Exports reached 457,000 units in Q2 2026, up 88% yoy and accounting for 33% of China's EV exports; overseas sales are more geographically diversified, with Western Europe, Latin America and ASEAN all important markets.

  Weaknesses

  Domestic competition is intensifying, while overseas expansion requires continued investment in distribution, localization and compliance.

  Comparison

  Leads Geely and Tesla in EV exports; ranks behind Chery in total passenger vehicle exports.

  Risks

  EU tariffs, the pace of overseas localization, price competition and regional policy changes.

• Chery

  Largest passenger vehicle exporter overall

  Strengths

  Exports reached 543,000 units in Q2 2026, up 85% yoy and accounting for 22% of China's exports; first-half exports reached 932,000 units, up 71% yoy.

  Weaknesses

  Its export powertrain mix remains highly dependent on ICE, with ICE vehicles accounting for approximately 88% of export volume in Q2.

  Comparison

  Its total export volume exceeded that of BYD, Geely, SAIC and Great Wall.

  Risks

  Changes in the demand mix for fuel vehicles, regional geopolitical risks and the pace of EV transition.

• Geely

  One of the fastest-growing major OEM exporters

  Strengths

  Exports reached 270,000 units in Q2 2026, up 186% yoy; EV exports reached 150,000 units, up 582% yoy, surpassing Tesla to become China's second-largest EV exporter.

  Weaknesses

  Overseas sales remain relatively concentrated in Eastern and Central Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa.

  Comparison

  Ranks third in total exports, with growth significantly faster than Chery, BYD, SAIC and Great Wall.

  Risks

  Regional demand volatility, localization execution and overseas brand recognition.

• SAIC Motor

  Important European exporter centered on MG

  Strengths

  Exports reached 226,000 units in Q2 2026, up 64% yoy; Western Europe contributed 43% of overseas sales, and MG has a strong presence in markets such as the United Kingdom.

  Weaknesses

  Its BEV exposure remains limited, at approximately 13% in Q2, due to challenges from EU tariffs on Chinese BEVs.

  Comparison

  Ranks fourth in total exports, with a more mature European footprint than other Chinese brands.

  Risks

  EU tariffs, intensifying competition in Europe and pressure to upgrade the product mix.

• Great Wall

  Representative traditional OEM expanding overseas

  Strengths

  Exports reached 144,000 units in Q2 2026, up 57% yoy; Russia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa were its main overseas markets.

  Weaknesses

  Exports remain primarily ICE vehicles, with approximately 85% consisting of fuel-powered models and limited EV penetration.

  Comparison

  Ranks fifth in total exports, with an export mix more tilted toward ICE, similar to Chery.

  Risks

  Policy and economic risks in Russia, changes in fuel vehicle demand and insufficient EV transition.

Key data

• China's new passenger vehicle exports in Q2 20262.51 million units, +79% yoyExports accounted for 37.0% of China's wholesale auto volume, up from 19.7% in Q2 2025 and 32.4% in Q1 2026.
• Powertrain mix of exports in Q2 2026ICE 46%, BEV 33%, PHEV 22%ICE grew 41% yoy, BEV grew 106% yoy and PHEV grew 182% yoy.
• China's auto exports in the first half of 20264.43 million units, +72% yoyExports accounted for 35% of wholesale volume, up from 19% in the first half of 2025.
• Growth in major export destinations in Q2 2026Western Europe +89%, Eastern and Central Europe +104%, Latin America +56%, ASEAN +70%, Oceania +121%, Middle East and Africa -8%The decline in the Middle East and Africa may be related to disruptions to shipping and trade flows around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Major OEM exports in Q2 2026Chery 543,000 units, BYD 457,000 units, Geely 270,000 units, SAIC 226,000 units, Great Wall 144,000 unitsChery ranked first in total exports; BYD accounted for 33% of China's EV exports, while Geely accounted for 11%.

Impact & implications

For investors, strong export growth reinforces the medium- to long-term case for overseas expansion by Chinese OEMs, particularly automakers with high EV exposure or rapid growth such as BYD and Geely. Rising shares in Europe, Latin America, ASEAN and Oceania indicate that the competitiveness of Chinese brands is extending beyond price to products, distribution and localization capabilities. However, slowing domestic demand, potential EU countervailing tariffs on PHEVs, geopolitical shipping disruptions and intense competition will continue to affect near-term momentum and profit realization.

Risks

• The EU may impose countervailing tariffs on Chinese PHEVs, potentially disrupting shipments and inventory absorption in the short term.
• The Strait of Hormuz and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may affect shipping, trade flows and sales in the Middle East and Africa.
• The reduction of domestic subsidies and higher EV purchase taxes may weigh on China's domestic auto demand.
• Intense domestic competition and materials cost inflation may compress OEM profitability.
• Regions such as Russia face rising scrappage costs, war-economy effects and policy uncertainty.

What to watch

• Whether EU countervailing tariffs on PHEVs take effect and their impact on the pace of European shipments by Chinese automakers.
• Whether Chinese automakers can continue to increase their market share in Europe, Latin America, ASEAN and Oceania.
• Whether the export mix of BYD, Chery, Geely, SAIC and Great Wall continues shifting from ICE toward EVs.
• Progress in overseas localized production capacity, distribution network development and completed acquisitions.
• Whether shipping disruptions and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Africa continue to suppress regional exports.