Bilibili Investor Day reinforces confidence in community monetization and game pipeline

Overview

This report summarizes the key takeaways from Bilibili's 2026 Investor Day. Morgan Stanley believes that Bilibili's community strength, monetization potential, and game pipeline depth all signal positive developments, especially the content community's long-term relationships, user interaction, and purchasing power, which support advertising revenue growth.

Core views

The core views include: first, what differentiates Bilibili from content distribution platforms is its accumulated time value, long-lifecycle content, and trust-based creator relationships; second, advertising monetization benefits from improvements in DAU, time spent, interaction, and user purchasing power; third, AI advertising tools are expected to improve click-through rates and eCPM, while expanding spending from mid- and long-tail advertisers; fourth, the gaming business has further room to expand in category leaders, globalization, cross-platform development, and self-developed pipelines.

Analysis framework

Based on management disclosures from Investor Day and Morgan Stanley's ModelWare forecasting framework, the report evaluates Bilibili's investment attractiveness across content community, advertising monetization, game pipeline, valuation methodology, and risk factors.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  The base case uses discounted cash flow valuation, with a WACC of 12% and a terminal growth rate of 3%, consistent with Morgan Stanley's China Internet coverage methodology.

• financial_modelMorgan Stanley ModelWare

  Financial forecasting framework

  Unless otherwise specified, the financial metrics in the report are based on the Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework, with some metrics using the consensus methodology or Morgan Stanley Research estimates.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BILI.US

  Core covered target

  Strengths

  Strong community stickiness, high user interaction, greater room for advertising monetization, deeper game reserves, and AI advertising tools that may improve delivery efficiency.

  Weaknesses

  Margins may still be affected by sales and marketing expenses as well as content costs, and MAU growth may face stronger competition as the user base expands.

  Comparison

  Morgan Stanley assigns an Overweight rating and believes its total return over the next 12-18 months is likely to exceed the average level of its covered industry universe.

  Risks

  Advertising growth below expectations, user retention and gross receipts for games below expectations, margin pressure, and competition leading to weaker-than-expected MAU growth.

Key data

• RatingOverweightStock rating, indicating better relative returns than the average of covered industry peers over the next 12-18 months.
• Industry viewAttractiveThe industry view disclosed in the report is Attractive.
• Target priceUS$31.00The target price time frame is typically 12-18 months.
• Closing priceUS$17.70As of July 10, 2026.
• Target price upside75%Relative to the closing price of US$17.70.
• 2026e net revenueRmb 33,106mnMorgan Stanley Research estimate.
• 2026e EBITDARmb 3,764mnMorgan Stanley Research estimate.
• 2026e EPSRmb 6.67Based on the consensus methodology.
• 2026e P/E18.0xDisclosed in the valuation table.
• User interactions17bn monthly interactionsUsed in the report to illustrate community interaction strength.
• Long-video viewing time share65%The proportion of user viewing time coming from videos longer than five minutes.
• Core user trust>8mn usersNumber of users who have followed creators for more than 10 years and actively interact.
• Average user age27Used in the report to illustrate improving user purchasing power.
• Tier 1 and Tier 2 city share55%Used in the report to illustrate user mix and advertising value.
• AI advertising click-through rate impact+8pptInternal tests show AI-generated ad covers can improve click-through rates.
• AI advertising eCPM potential+5%Broader adoption could improve eCPM.

Impact & implications

If community mindshare continues to strengthen and converts into advertising pricing power, the sustainability of Bilibili's advertising business growth will become stronger; if the game pipeline delivers and produces new evergreen category-leading products, the company's earnings and valuation flexibility may improve further.

Risks

• Sales and marketing expenses or content costs may rise, causing margins to come in below expectations.
• As the user base expands, competition may intensify and MAU growth may fall short of expectations.
• Advertising revenue growth may be affected by the macro environment and advertiser budgets.
• User retention and revenue longevity of games such as San Mou may be below expectations.

What to watch

• The pace of adoption of AI advertising agents among advertisers and their ability to drive budgets from mid- and long-tail advertisers.
• Whether advertising revenue growth, eCPM, and click-through rate improvements continue to materialize.
• Testing and launch performance of games such as San Wang, N Card, Lumi Master, Three Kingdoms: The Ravages of Time, and Mistbound.
• Progress toward the goal of adding two new evergreen category-leading games over the next two to three years.
• Changes in content costs, sales and marketing expenses, and margins.