Nomura projects a USD/CNY fixing model value of 6.7853

Overview

This is a USD/CNY fixing model forecast report published by Nomura Asia FX Strategy. Its core content is a model estimate of the RMB fixing against the US dollar, together with recent model errors, daily changes in the fixing, and a calendar of China-related macroeconomic events. The main body of the report is relatively brief, while most subsequent pages consist of research disclosures, fixed-income valuation methodologies, and disclaimers.

Core views

The report's core view is that the USD/CNY model forecast is 6.7853, below the previous fix of 6.8047; when the countercyclical factor is included, the model forecast is 6.7934. This indicates that the current fixing is expected to be lower than the previous fix, but still 49 points above the previous official spot close.

Analysis framework

The report uses a USD/CNY fixing model to provide forecasts under two specifications, excluding and including the countercyclical factor, and uses overnight contributions, recent model errors, daily changes in the USD/CNY fixing, and an event calendar to support the explanation.

Methodology notes

• Macro FXUSD/CNY fixing model

  RMB fixing model forecast

  The model estimates the USD/CNY fixing and compares the forecast with the previous fix and the previous official spot close.

• Macro FXCountercyclical factor adjustment

  Fixing forecast including the countercyclical factor

  The report separately discloses the model forecast of 6.7934 after including the countercyclical factor, to assess the impact of policy adjustment factors on the fixing estimate.

• Event AnalysisMacro event calendar

  Tracking of Chinese policy and macroeconomic events

  The report lists several China-related events in the second half of 2026, indicating that these events may affect RMB exchange-rate expectations and macroeconomic policy assessments.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• USD/CNY

  Directly covered foreign exchange asset

  Strengths

  The report provides a clear model forecast and discloses both the specifications excluding and including the countercyclical factor.

  Weaknesses

  The main text lacks complete model parameters, detailed weights, and reproducible data.

  Comparison

  The base model forecast is 6.7853, while the forecast including the countercyclical factor is 6.7934, a difference of 81 points.

  Risks

  Model errors, policy adjustments, US dollar movements, and macroeconomic events may all cause the actual fix to deviate from the forecast.

• CNY

  Asset related to RMB exchange-rate expectations

  Strengths

  The fixing forecast helps assess short-term RMB pricing signals.

  Weaknesses

  A single fixing forecast cannot replace an assessment of medium- to long-term exchange-rate trends.

  Comparison

  It is 194 points below the previous fix, indicating a stronger fixing under the model specification.

  Risks

  Chinese policy meetings, external trade, and China-US relationship events may alter the RMB risk premium.

Key data

• Model forecast6.7853USD/CNY fixing model forecast excluding the countercyclical factor.
• Previous fix6.8047The model forecast is 194 points below the previous value.
• Relative to previous official spot close49 points higherThe report states that the model forecast is 49 points above the previous official spot close.
• Model forecast including the countercyclical factor6.7934113 points below the previous fix.
• Event: Politburo economic work meeting in late JulyLate July 2026The meeting communiqué typically contains clues regarding economic work and senior-level policy priorities.
• Event: National Day Golden Week1-7 October 2026Chinese holiday factors may affect market liquidity and short-term trading arrangements.
• Event: APEC Shenzhen meetingNov 2026China will host the 31st APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting.
• Event: Central Economic Work ConferenceMid December 2026This is typically an important window for observing the policy direction for the next stage of economic development.
• Event: Indications of visits by the Chinese and US heads of stateTowards end of 2026The report mentions President Trump saying that President Xi may visit the White House at year-end.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report primarily provides a short-term reference for the USD/CNY fixing rather than direct trading advice. The forecast is below the previous fix, suggesting that the RMB fixing may be temporarily stronger; however, the specification including the countercyclical factor is above the base model value, indicating that policy adjustment factors may alter the market's interpretation of the fixing. The event calendar suggests that subsequent Chinese policy meetings, APEC, and China-US interactions may become important reference points for RMB expectations.

Risks

• The model forecast may differ from the actual USD/CNY fixing.
• Policy adjustments such as the countercyclical factor may cause the fixing to deviate from the base model.
• The report's disclaimer states that forecasts and simulations are not reliable indicators of future performance.
• Exchange-rate volatility may adversely affect the prices of related securities, derivatives, or cross-currency assets.
• Events such as Chinese policy meetings, APEC arrangements, and China-US interactions may change market expectations.

What to watch

• Whether the actual USD/CNY fixing is close to the two model specifications of 6.7853 or 6.7934.
• Whether recent model errors widen.
• The wording on economic policy priorities at the Politburo economic work meeting in late July.
• The Shenzhen APEC meeting in November 2026 and related signals on Asia-Pacific cooperation.
• The policy direction on growth stabilization, the exchange rate, and the external environment at the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2026.
• Arrangements for year-end visits by the Chinese and US heads of state and their impact on RMB risk appetite.