Solar Product Prices Stabilize Overall, Upstream Polysilicon Prices Stop Falling

Overview

This report is a weekly price tracking report on China's solar product prices released by Morgan Stanley, focusing on price dynamics of each link in Week 22 of 2026 (ended May 27). The core conclusion is: the entire solar industry chain prices remained generally stable. Upstream polysilicon prices stopped falling and stabilized after decline. Mid-to-downstream cells and modules prices fluctuated slightly. Raw material EVA resin prices saw significant decline, while key materials such as POE resin prices maintained stability.

Core views

Demand Side: Domestic distributed and utility-scale projects continue demand for TOPCon modules, prices stable at 0.76 yuan/W and 0.72 yuan/W respectively, showing terminal installation demand did not appear weak. Supply Side: After experiencing decline earlier, polysilicon prices stabilized at average 34.5-35 yuan/kg this week, indicating upstream capacity clearance or initial supply-demand balance formed. Cell prices weakened slightly, PERC cell prices dropped to 0.325-0.335 yuan/W, reflecting intensified market competition. Cost Transmission: EVA resin price dropped 18.5% week-over-week, which was the most significant cost change this week, possibly due to loose raw material supply or seasonal demand adjustment; while POE resin price stayed stable, showing its scarcity or cost rigidity in high-end modules. Price Structure: Overseas market prices stable, China-produced TOPCon modules assembled in US priced at 0.30 USD/W, far higher than China exported 0.123 USD/W, indicating significant value addition exists in overseas assembly segment.

Analysis framework

Morgan Stanley adopts industry price tracking and micro-data comparison analysis method. Report does not rely on macro models, but directly collects and integrates weekly prices from third-party market data sources such as PVInfoLink, WIND, SMM, conducting full-chain price monitoring from upstream polysilicon, midstream cell/modules to downstream encapsulation materials (EVA/POE resin). Its analysis logic identifies price turning points and transmission paths by observing YoY, WoW changes in prices at each link. For example, polysilicon price stopping fall is a leading signal of upstream supply side, while EVA resin plunge may indicate component manufacturers' cost pressure relief in short term, but POE resin stability implies high-end product cost support remains strong. Report combines price data with historical trends (such as long-term price curves shown in charts), judges whether current price is cyclical fluctuation or structural transformation, thereby providing short-term pricing reference for investors, rather than long-term valuation judgment.

Methodology notes

• Industrial Analysis FrameworkIndustrial Chain Up-Mid-Down Transmission

  Industrial Chain Up-Mid-Down Transmission

  The core analysis framework of this report is observing the price transmission relationship from upstream (polysilicon) to midstream (cells, modules) to raw materials (EVA/POE resins) in the solar industrial chain. By comparing the magnitude and timing of price changes at each link, judge whether cost pressure can be effectively transmitted downstream, or whether some link price stabilizes first (e.g., polysilicon) as an industry bottom signal.

• Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume and Price Split

  Volume and Price Split

  Although the report did not mention sales volume directly, it achieves a refined split of price changes by precisely distinguishing different technology routes (e.g., PERC vs TOPCon), different sizes (182mm vs 210mm) and different application scenarios (distributed vs utility-scale) prices. This helps identify whether price changes are caused by technology iteration (e.g., TOPCon penetration rate increase) or scale effects, rather than simple total quantity supply-demand changes.

• Industrial Analysis FrameworkCost curve analysis

  Cost Curve Analysis

  The report compares the price trends of EVA resin and POE resin, essentially analyzing the cost curves of different encapsulation materials. EVA price significant drop indicates its cost curve may have entered a downward channel, while POE price stability means its cost curve is relatively rigid, which directly relates to profitability space of different technology routes (e.g., HJT, BC).

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Tongwei Co. Ltd. (600438.SS)

  Benefited from polysilicon price stabilization and EVA resin cost decline, as integrated PV manufacturer, its profitability expected to improve.

• LONGi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd (601012.SS)

  As module leader, its price stability helps maintain market share, but need to focus on downstream module price competition pressure.

• JA Solar Technology Co Ltd (002459.SZ)

  Benefited from TOPCon module price stability, its technology route advantage may bring relatively stable price and profit.

• Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd (0968.HK)

  As glass manufacturer, its product price strongly correlated with module demand, current module price stability helps maintain its demand expectation.

Key data

• Average Polysilicon Price34.5-35 yuan/kgWeekly price stops falling stabilizes, ends previous downward trend
• PERC Cell Price0.325-0.335 yuan/WWeek-over-week slight drop 0-1.5%
• Domestic Distributed TOPCon Module Price0.76 yuan/WWeekly flat
• Domestic Utility-scale TOPCon Module Price0.72 yuan/WWeekly flat
• China-produced Overseas Export TOPCon Module Price0.123 USD/WWeekly flat
• EVA Resin PriceWeek-over-week -18.5%Price significantly dropped
• POE Resin PriceFlatWeekly price kept stable

Impact & implications

The report believes that polysilicon price stabilization may suggest upstream capacity clearance approaching end, providing foundation for overall industry profit recovery. EVA resin price significant drop will reduce raw material costs for module manufacturers, may improve their profit margins in short term, but POE resin stability indicates high-end product cost pressure still exists. Overall price stability means industry may enter staged consolidation period, not fierce price war, which favors market confidence recovery.

Risks

• If downstream demand appears unexpected slowdown, may cause prices pressured again.
• Short-term EVA resin price plummet may be unsustainable, risk of rebound exists.
• Overseas trade policy changes (e.g. US tariffs) may disturb overseas module price stable pattern.

What to watch

• Next week polysilicon price whether can sustain stable above 35 yuan/kg.
• Whether EVA resin price can stabilize at low level, or whether will continue to fall.
• Whether TOPCon module and PERC module price spread expands, reflecting technology replacement rhythm.