Goldman Sachs raises Montage target prices, maintains Buy, positive on MRDIMM boosting AI memory bandwidth demand

Overview

This report is a company research and rating change report on Montage by Goldman Sachs. The report maintains a Buy rating and raises target prices for both A-shares and H-shares, on the grounds that memory interface products such as MRDIMM and MRCD/MDB are poised to benefit from AI workload-driven demand for higher-bandwidth DRAM and improved data transmission capability in CPU servers.

Core views

The core view is that Montage made an early move in MRDIMM-related MDB/MRCD chips, with first-generation products developed in 2022 and second-generation products launched in early 2025; current high-volume sampling feedback is positive. As new CPU platforms supporting second-generation MRDIMM technology launch in late 2026 to 2027, Goldman Sachs expects MRDIMM adoption to accelerate from 2027E, and Montage is likely to capture strong market share thanks to its early R&D lead and product availability.

Analysis framework

The report combines earnings forecast upgrades with valuation multiple updates: the A-share target price is based on 47.9x discounted 2030E P/E, with the multiple derived from the correlation between peer P/E and net profit growth; the H-share target price is based on 66.1x 2030E P/E, incorporating a 38% valuation premium to A-shares and a 1.09 CNY/HKD exchange rate. The report also extends the H-A premium sample period from 20 trading days to 30 trading days to reflect longer-term momentum amid recent valuation volatility.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methods2030E discounted P/E

  Derive the 12-month target price using long-term earnings forecasts and a target P/E multiple.

  The 12-month A-share target price of Rmb387 is based on 47.9x discounted 2030E P/E. The target multiple is derived from the correlation between peer P/E and net profit growth; the methodology is unchanged, but the parameters are updated for the market.

• Valuation methodsH-A premium valuation

  The H-share target price is built on the A-share valuation with additional H-A premium and exchange rate assumptions.

  The 12-month H-share target price of HK$582 is based on 66.1x 2030E P/E, including a 38% valuation premium to A-shares and using 1.09 CNY/HKD; the premium observation period is extended from 20 trading days to 30 trading days.

• factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Characterizes stock attributes from growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors.

  The disclosure section explains that Goldman Sachs calculates percentiles using metrics such as forward sales, EBITDA, EPS, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, P/E, and P/B to provide investment context.

• event frameworkM&A Rank

  Uses a 1-to-3 rating to assess the probability of a company becoming an acquisition target.

  The disclosure section explains that Goldman Sachs assesses M&A potential using both qualitative and quantitative factors; if a company is rated 1 or 2, M&A factors may be incorporated into the target price under the standard process.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Montage (A) 688008.SS

  primary rating target and A-share target price subject

  Strengths

  Early positioning in MRDIMM/MRCD/MDB, second-generation products already in high-volume sampling, strong customer adoption interest, and higher-bandwidth DRAM demand driven by increasing AI workloads.

  Weaknesses

  Growth realization depends on the launch of compatible CPU platforms, customer adoption timing, and mass production of new products; valuation is relatively sensitive to long-term earnings growth and peer multiples.

  Comparison

  The A-share target price of Rmb387 is based on 47.9x discounted 2030E P/E, about 7% above the previous target price of Rmb363.

  Risks

  Weaker-than-expected growth in the memory interface IC market, slower-than-expected new product adoption, and stronger-than-expected competition.

• Montage (H) 6809.HK

  valuation mapping and target price subject for the same company's H-shares

  Strengths

  Shares the same fundamentals as the A-shares and benefits from the same MRDIMM, MRCD/MDB, and AI memory bandwidth demand thesis.

  Weaknesses

  The target price is more sensitive to the H-A valuation premium, sample period selection, and CNY/HKD exchange rate assumptions.

  Comparison

  The H-share target price of HK$582 is based on 66.1x 2030E P/E, including a 38% valuation premium to A-shares and about 14% above the previous HK$510.

  Risks

  In addition to business risks, investors should also watch H-A premium volatility and changes in exchange rate assumptions.

Key data

• report date2026-05-26The header shows 26 May 2026.
• ratingBuyThe report explicitly maintains Buy.
• target price revisionA-share Rmb387 (previously Rmb363); H-share HK$582 (previously HK$510)Target prices for A-shares/H-shares are raised by about 7%/14%, respectively.
• EPS revision2028E-2032E EPS raised by about 1% annuallyThe increase comes from a more optimistic view on MRCD/MDB product growth.
• MRCD/MDB revenue growth2026E-2030E CAGR 85%Goldman Sachs believes this business will become Montage's next near-term growth driver.
• MRDIMM bandwidthAbout 2x that of traditional server RDIMMThe report states that MRDIMM is an upgraded technology over traditional server RDIMM.
• A-share valuation multiple47.9x discounted 2030E P/EPrevious value was 45.2x; corresponds to average EPS growth of 34% in 2030E-2031E.
• H-share valuation multiple66.1x 2030E P/E, a 38% premium to A-sharesUses 1.09 CNY/HKD and extends the H-A premium sample period to 30 trading days.
• disclosed priceMontage (A) Rmb272.29; Montage (H) HK$462.00This price comes from the company-specific regulatory disclosure section.

Impact & implications

If the MRDIMM ecosystem ramps as expected in the report from 2027E alongside new CPU platforms, Montage's memory interface IC portfolio could expand from traditional demand into AI server and high-bandwidth DRAM scenarios, driving upgrades to long-term revenue and earnings forecasts. The target price increase also implies that the market's sensitivity to MRCD/MDB volume ramp, peer valuations, and the H-A premium will rise.

Risks

• Weaker-than-expected growth in the memory interface IC market.
• Slower-than-expected new product adoption.
• Stronger-than-expected market competition.
• If new CPU platforms supporting second-generation MRDIMM are delayed in launch or volume ramp, MRCD/MDB revenue realization will be affected.
• Volatility in the H-A premium and peer valuations may affect target price derivation.

What to watch

• The launch timeline of new CPU platforms compatible with second-generation MRDIMM in late 2026 to 2027.
• Whether MRDIMM sampling feedback can convert into volume orders and customer adoption.
• The intensity of demand for high-bandwidth DRAM and memory interface ICs after CPU servers begin carrying agentic AI tasks.
• Whether MRCD/MDB revenue tracks close to the forecast path of 85% CAGR in 2026E-2030E.
• Changes in the correlation between peer P/E and net profit growth, the H-A premium, and the 1.09 CNY/HKD exchange rate assumption.
• Progress in expanding new products into PCIe, CXL, Ethernet, and Optical interconnect ICs.