Nomura expects the global GLP-1 RAs boom to continue, with Asian market and value-chain opportunities accelerating

Overview

This is a Nomura Anchor Report on the global GLP-1 RAs value chain. The report states that tirzepatide and semaglutide have become among the best-selling drugs globally, and GLP-1 RAs are expanding from T2D treatment to chronic weight management, driving changes in pharma business models, R&D direction, pricing systems, and the global supply chain. The US remains the core profit market, but incremental growth is gradually shifting to Europe, emerging markets, and Asia.

Core views

The core view is that GLP-1 RA growth has not ended, but has entered a more globalized and diversified value-chain phase. Rising price transparency and policy-driven price pressure in the US market will create pressure, but in ROW markets, larger patient populations, higher penetration at lower prices, oral convenience, generic diffusion, and next-generation molecule R&D will continue to expand category size. Asian markets, especially China, have integrated strengths in population, reimbursement, R&D, outbound licensing, and CDMO, while Korea is more focused on partnerships, formulations, and manufacturing platforms, and Japan is mainly centered on licensing, introductions, and local commercialization.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes dimensions such as global market size, regional sales migration, treatment paradigm, price changes, oral formulations, generic timelines, next-generation pipelines, Asian country opportunities, and company beneficiary pathways, and combines these with company ratings, price targets, and DCF or comparable valuation frameworks to form investment recommendations.

Methodology notes

• 市场规模预测2025-2035F地区GLP-1 RAs销售预测

  Estimate patient base, penetration rate, annual treatment cost, and market size by country.

  The report gives sales forecasts for markets such as China, Japan, Korea, and India to 2030F and 2035F, explaining Asian growth potential through high patient assumptions and lower price assumptions than the U.S.

• 产业链分析GLP-1价值链映射

  Split opportunities into R&D, commercialization, licensing, CDMO, generics, and formulation innovation.

  This framework is used to identify how different companies benefit from the GLP-1 wave, for example Wuxi Apptec and Asymchem leaning toward CDMO, while Innovent and Celltrion lean toward innovative drugs and commercialization.

• 竞争格局分子疗效与安全性比较

  Compare efficacy and safety indicators such as weight loss, HbA1c reduction, nausea, and vomiting.

  The report argues that future molecules do not necessarily need to comprehensively outperform tirzepatide, semaglutide, and orforglipron, but can narrow the competitive gap through one or two differentiated dimensions.

• 估值DCF与目标价调整

  Derive target prices based on assumptions for cash flow, WACC, terminal growth rate, and equity.

  The report discloses Asymchem's H-share DCF table and lists target price changes, both old and new, for multiple companies as support for Buy ratings and implied upside.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Wuxi Apptec (603259 CH / 2359 HK)

  Direct beneficiary of CDMO and the GLP-1 value chain

  Strengths

  It has comprehensive CDMO capabilities, and the report believes it can benefit from the GLP-1 wave over the long term, with FY26E guidance potentially being raised.

  Weaknesses

  Monetization depends on the sustainability of GLP-1-related order flow and the pace of client R&D and commercialization.

  Comparison

  Compared with pharmaceutical companies, Wuxi Apptec is more about value-chain services and order-driven benefits.

  Risks

  The achievement of target prices may be affected by order volatility, policy, geopolitics, capacity utilization, and industry competition.

• Asymchem (002821 CH / 6821 HK)

  CDMO beneficiary

  Strengths

  Its prior CDMO track record provides GLP-1 opportunities, with near-term growth drivers potentially from peptides and mid-term from small molecules.

  Weaknesses

  Recovery and growth pace may be impacted by project ramp-up, capital expenditure, and client concentration.

  Comparison

  Like Wuxi Apptec, Asymchem is in the CDMO beneficiary chain, but the report highlights peptide and small-molecule, stagewise drivers for it.

  Risks

  Project progress, pricing competition, ramp-up of capacity, and slower-than-expected order conversion.

• Innovent (1801 HK)

  China domestic GLP-1 innovative drug beneficiary

  Strengths

  The report says it is one of the first domestic Chinese participants in the GLP-1 market, with Mazdutide being only part of its success story.

  Weaknesses

  Commercialization of innovative drugs still faces pressure from competition, reimbursement, and clinical expansion.

  Comparison

  Compared with CDMO companies, Innovent's leverage is more directly tied to product pipeline and domestic commercialization.

  Risks

  Clinical, regulatory, competitive drugs, pricing, and reimbursement uncertainty.

• Celltrion (068270 KS)

  Korea biotech/pharma favored stock and GLP-1-related innovative drug opportunity

  Strengths

  The report lists it as a favored Korea pharma stock, highlighting opportunities in obesity-related innovative biologics.

  Weaknesses

  GLP-1-related contribution still depends on development, collaboration, and commercialization progress.

  Comparison

  The Korean ecosystem is overall more focused on partnerships, formulations, and manufacturing platforms, while Celltrion represents the innovative biologics route.

  Risks

  R&D failure, intensified competition, commercialization delays, and valuation volatility.

• Dr. Reddy's; Sun Pharma; Zydus

  Semaglutide generic opportunities and emerging-market exposure

  Strengths

  Dr. Reddy's has obtained approval for generic semaglutide in Canada and plans to cover about 80 countries through direct or partnered channels; multiple Indian companies hold first-generic positions for Ozempic.

  Weaknesses

  Generic opportunities are more dependent on patents, regulation, supply, and price competition.

  Comparison

  Compared with branded innovative drugs, generics are more oriented toward mass-market penetration and improved affordability.

  Risks

  Patent litigation, approval delays, downward pricing pressure, and supply competition.

Key data

• Current global GLP-1 RAs market size约USD72bnThird-party institutions Frost & Sullivan, Evaluatepharma, and GlobalData forecast that it could reach about USD180bn over the next 10 years.
• Projected global GLP-1 RAs CAGR over the next 10 years约11%Corresponding to growth from about USD72bn to about USD180bn.
• Share of global GLP-1 RAs revenue from the US52%In 2025, the US remains the core source of profits.
• Total sales of major GLP-1 drugs in 2025超过USD70bnIncludes Lilly's Mounjaro/Zepbound and Novo Nordisk's Ozempic/Wegovy/Rybelsus.
• China GLP-1 RAs sales forecast2025年USD1.6bn，2030F USD9.7bn，2035F USD19.4bnThe report believes China is the more representative Asian market for this theme.
• Japan GLP-1 RAs sales forecast2025年USD2.1bn，2030F USD5.2bn，2035F USD7.2bnThe report separately lists Japan market forecasts to 2030F and 2035F.
• Korea GLP-1 RAs sales forecast2025年USD0.7bn，2030F USD3.0bn，2035F USD4.8bnThe Korean ecosystem is more oriented toward partnerships, long-acting formulations, biologics development, and manufacturing.
• India GLP-1 RAs sales forecast2025年USD0.1bn，2030F USD1.3bn，2035F USD4.1bnGeneric drugs and emerging-market expansion are important opportunities.
• Wegovy pill clinical weight reduction约15.1%至16.6%OASIS 1 shows that oral semaglutide 50mg results in about 15.1% weight loss after 68 weeks; another section of the report cites a 16.6% reduction for Wegovy pill.
• Foundayo/orforglipron weight reduction约12.4%ATTAIN-1 shows about 12.4% weight reduction at 36mg over 72 weeks.
• Retatrutide weight reduction28.3%TRIUMPH-1 shows 28.3% weight change after 80 weeks at 12mg weekly.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that the GLP-1 theme should not only focus on existing U.S. bestsellers, but also on Asian market expansion, low-cost mass markets, generic diffusion, outbound licensing of innovative molecules, CDMO order flows, and platformization of formulations. For equities, the report prefers Asian names that can directly capture GLP-1 R&D, manufacturing, or commercialization upside.

Risks

• US GLP-1 pricing remains under pressure from IRA, MFN, and competition.
• Clinical efficacy, safety, or tolerability of next-generation molecules may fall short of expectations.
• Asian market penetration increases more slowly than expected, or affordability/reimbursements are insufficient.
• Generic launch timing may be affected by patents, data protection, approvals, and litigation.
• CDMO order realization may fall short of expectations, or capacity utilization may be below expectations.
• Real-world adherence, efficacy, and side-effect profile of oral GLP-1 may be weaker than clinical expectations.
• Rapid changes in competitive structure may pressure the share of existing brands or regional companies.

What to watch

• Penetration and pricing changes in Chinese, Indian, Korean, and Japanese GLP-1 markets.
• Number, value, and GLP-1 asset share of China out-license transactions.
• Launch timelines and pricing of semaglutide generics in markets such as China, India, Canada, and Brazil.
• Prescription trends for orforglipron, oral semaglutide, and other oral formulations.
• Later-stage clinical results for retatrutide, berobenatide, elecoglipron, aleniglipron, siRNA, and amylin therapies.
• Updates on target prices, guidance, orders, and product progress for Wuxi Apptec, Asymchem, Innovent, and Celltrion.
• Changes in US CMS negotiated prices, MFN policy, and commercial insurance coverage.