Summer Off-Season Weighs on Industry Orders, While New Models Drive Weekly Growth for Leapmotor and BYD

Overview

This report tracks orders, sales, retail discounts, and upstream battery prices in China's NEV market for Week 33 of 2026. Industry orders improved slightly QoQ during the summer off-season but remained materially weaker YoY; new model launches became the core driver of divergence in brand orders.

Core views

Aggregate orders of key NEV manufacturers rose 2% QoQ and fell 38% YoY. Leapmotor, BYD, and Xiaomi posted QoQ order growth of 22%, 13%, and 9%, respectively, mainly driven by new model launches. In terms of year-to-date orders, Nio, HIMA, and XPeng recorded YoY growth of 40%, 23%, and 1%, respectively, demonstrating relatively stronger defensiveness. At the industry level, NEV wholesale penetration in early August increased versus July, while retail penetration declined.

Analysis framework

The report uses a cross-tracking framework of weekly brand orders, CPCA passenger vehicle retail and wholesale data, dealer discounts relative to suggested retail prices, and battery raw material and cell prices to identify short-term changes in demand, competitive pricing, and costs.

Methodology notes

• Market TrackingWeekly Order and Sales Tracking

  Observes demand changes through weekly orders for key brands and CPCA retail/wholesale data.

  Orders are used to identify short-term brand sell-through, while retail and wholesale data validate end-market demand, channel restocking, and NEV penetration.

• Competitive AnalysisDealer Discount Tracking

  Measures terminal price competition using dealer discounts as a percentage of suggested retail prices.

  Narrowing discounts generally indicate marginal easing of pricing pressure, although sales and model mix must also be considered.

• Cost AnalysisBattery Supply Chain Price Tracking

  Tracks battery-grade lithium carbonate and LFP and NCM prismatic cell prices.

  Rising raw material prices may affect battery costs and vehicle gross margins, while stable cell prices indicate that short-term pass-through remains limited.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Leapmotor

  NEV Manufacturing Brand

  Strengths

  New models such as the A05 drove 22% QoQ order growth, leading weekly performance.

  Weaknesses

  Industry-wide YoY order declines indicate that the demand environment remains weak.

  Comparison

  Weekly growth outpaced BYD and Xiaomi.

  Risks

  Sustainability of new-model momentum, off-season demand, and industry competition.

• BYD

  NEV Manufacturing Brand and Supply Chain Participant

  Strengths

  New models such as the Qin Max drove 13% QoQ order growth; its average dealer discount was 3.95%, below the NEV industry average.

  Weaknesses

  Weekly growth was lower than Leapmotor's; the company still faces the broader industry off-season.

  Comparison

  QoQ order growth was higher than Xiaomi's but lower than Leapmotor's.

  Risks

  New product ramp-up, 2Q26 earnings release on August 28, and rising lithium carbonate costs.

• Xiaomi

  NEV Manufacturing Brand

  Strengths

  Weekly orders rose 9% QoQ, and the company plans to officially launch the N70/N90 in September.

  Weaknesses

  The report did not provide absolute order volumes or profitability data.

  Comparison

  Weekly growth was lower than that of Leapmotor and BYD.

  Risks

  New model launch execution, intensifying competition, and demand volatility.

• Nio / HIMA / XPeng

  NEV Manufacturing Brands

  Strengths

  Year-to-date order growth was 40%, 23%, and 1% YoY, respectively, indicating relative defensiveness.

  Weaknesses

  XPeng's year-to-date order growth was comparatively low.

  Comparison

  Nio recorded the highest year-to-date growth.

  Risks

  The impact of XPeng OTA upgrades, earnings releases, and new product cadence on market expectations.

Key data

• Weekly Orders of Key NEV Manufacturers+2% QoQ, -38% YoYWeek 33 of 2026, as the market entered the summer off-season.
• Weekly Orders for Leapmotor / BYD / Xiaomi+22% / +13% / +9% QoQMainly driven by new model launches.
• Passenger Vehicle Retail Sales317,000 units, -22% YoY, -3% QoQFrom August 1 to 9; source: CPCA.
• Passenger Vehicle Wholesale Sales276,000 units, -24% YoY, +2% QoQFrom August 1 to 9; source: CPCA.
• NEV Retail/Wholesale Sales195,000 units eachRetail: -17% YoY and -4% QoQ; wholesale: -5% YoY and +5% QoQ.
• NEV Retail/Wholesale Penetration Rate61.6% / 70.9%From August 1 to 9; July figures were 64.4% / 65.3%.
• Average NEV Dealer Discount7.24%As of August 15, slightly narrower than 7.29% on August 8.
• Average ICE Vehicle Dealer Discount19.83%As of August 15, slightly narrower than 19.85% on August 8.
• Battery-Grade Lithium Carbonate PriceRmb151.5k/ton, +5.6% QoQPrismatic LFP and NCM cell prices were unchanged QoQ.

Impact & implications

Short-term industry demand remains constrained by seasonal weakness, with order growth concentrated among brands benefiting from new model catalysts. Wholesale penetration rising to 70.9% indicates resilience in NEV supply and channel performance, but weaker retail performance suggests that recovery in end-market demand still requires validation. Slightly narrowing retail discounts help ease concerns about price competition; meanwhile, rising lithium carbonate prices are a cost variable to monitor for future vehicle and battery profitability.

Risks

• A prolonged summer off-season or further weakening in end-market demand.
• Failure of new-model order momentum to sustain, leading to a narrowing of order divergence among brands.
• Continued increases in lithium carbonate prices and pass-through to cell and vehicle costs.
• Dealer discounts widening again, reflecting intensifying price competition.
• Monthly sales, earnings releases, or product launch outcomes falling below market expectations.

What to watch

• BYD Tai 7 launch on August 18.
• XPeng VLA2.0 OTA launch in August.
• XPeng and Leapmotor 2Q26 earnings releases on August 24; Li Auto 2Q26 earnings release on August 26; BYD 2Q26 earnings release on August 28.
• Monthly sales releases by NEV manufacturers on September 1.
• CPCA releases of passenger vehicle and NEV industry and model wholesale/retail data on September 10-11.
• Launch progress of the facelifted Li Auto MEGA, i9, and Xiaomi N70/N90.