Policy noise did not disrupt China’s online GLP-1 sales momentum
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Policy noise did not disrupt China’s online GLP-1 sales momentum
Citing Meritco data, Jefferies notes that May online sales of five key GLP-1 products reached Rmb757mn, up 41% month over month, led by Mounjaro; falling prices were offset by volume growth, while JDH/ALH were relatively limited in their exposure to regional prescription policy impacts.
- May online GLP-1 sales rose 41% month over month to Rmb757mn, with Mounjaro up about 61% to 64% month over month, reaching a monthly online sales scale of over Rmb500mn for the first time.
- After Shanghai and Jiangxi tightened GLP-1 retail/online dispensing requirements, online sales remained strong, supporting the report’s view that JDH/ALH can remain resilient through licensed internet hospital workflows.
- The 6.18 e-commerce promotion drove ASPs further down; Xinermei’s June price fell about 25% month over month, and Mounjaro also saw a double-digit percentage decline, but volume growth temporarily offset the pricing pressure.
- The high user base created by the 2025 food-delivery subsidy war makes traffic trends in June and July 2026 a key observation point; if GLP-1 momentum continues, it will reinforce the sustainability of 2H26 growth.
- R&D and BD remain active, with Innovent, Hengrui, Vincentage, Sciwind/Pfizer, Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, and Novo Nordisk all disclosing obesity pipeline progress, while competition in semaglutide biosimilars is also heating up.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report tracks May online sales, pricing, platform share, regional policy impact, R&D progress, and biosimilar competition for obesity GLP-1 drugs in China. The core conclusion is that despite stricter GLP-1 retail/online dispensing policy noise emerging in Shanghai and Jiangxi in May, online sales still accelerated significantly, indicating strong current demand and resilience in internet healthcare channels; however, before confirming that policy pressure has fully faded, it remains necessary to watch whether more provinces follow suit.
Core views
The report’s core views include: 1) May online GLP-1 sales were strong, with five key products totaling Rmb757mn, up 41% month over month, mainly driven by Mounjaro; 2) price competition intensified, but volume was sufficient to offset ASP compression, creating a positive read-through for 2H26 in the short term; 3) as leaders in B2C and internet hospitals, JDH/ALH are relatively insulated from regional offline prescription restrictions, though policy diffusion remains an overhang on sentiment; 4) June and July traffic performance against a high base will test growth sustainability; 5) domestic obesity drug pipelines, MNC licensing partnerships, and semaglutide biosimilars will reshape the medium-term competitive landscape.
Analysis framework
The report mainly uses Meritco’s monthly high-frequency online sales data, covering B2C e-commerce platforms such as JD.com and Tmall, and treats it as a proxy indicator for JDH/ALH-related demand; it also combines regional policy, platform pricing, market share, clinical conference data, BD transactions, and the CDE filing landscape to form a multidimensional tracking view of China’s obesity GLP-1 market.
Methodology notes
Use monthly B2C sales on JD.com and Tmall as a proxy for JDH/ALH sales
The report believes that more than 80% of GLP-1 sales for the obesity indication come from online channels and are not covered by public insurance reimbursement, so online e-commerce data can reflect retail demand reasonably well, though the accuracy of third-party databases and historical restatements need to be considered.
Observe whether more provinces follow Shanghai and Jiangxi in imposing GLP-1 prescription restrictions
If more regions require recent hospital prescriptions or tighten online/retail dispensing, sentiment and transaction processes could come under pressure; if there is no further spread, the policy noise may have limited impact on JDH/ALH.
Assess whether promotional price cuts are offset by volume growth
The 6.18 promotion pushed ASPs of products such as Xinermei and Mounjaro further down, but strong May volumes provided a constructive near-term signal for 2H26 demand.
Compare pipelines targeting GLP-1, GIP, GCG, FGF21, and non-incretin pathways
The report summarizes obesity and T2DM clinical progress from Innovent, Hengrui, Vincentage, Sciwind/Pfizer, Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, and Novo Nordisk to assess future competition and licensing value.
Assess potential cost advantages based on CDE filings and in-house API manufacturing capability
A total of 26 semaglutide biosimilar finished-drug applications have been submitted to the CDE, and about 7-8 of the first 12 potential launch companies have in-house API manufacturing capability, which may determine cost efficiency and pricing flexibility.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- JD Health / JDHOne of the core channels for online GLP-1 sales in China, with JD/Tmall at about 52%/48% in 5M26.
- Strengths
- Maintains a leading share, and internet hospital workflows help sustain compliant dispensing under regional prescription policies.
- Weaknesses
- The high user base created by 2025 food-delivery subsidies may affect year-over-year traffic in June-July 2026.
- Comparison
- Still ahead of Tmall, though Tmall has recently been catching up due to discounts and promotions.
- Risks
- More provinces following prescription restrictions, platform traffic decline, and margin pressure caused by promotions.
- Alibaba Health / ALH / TmallTmall online sales can serve as a proxy for ALH-related demand, with recent promotions driving share recovery.
- Strengths
- Discounts and e-commerce promotions support demand release, and the B2C platform has broad reach.
- Weaknesses
- More reliant on promotions, and ASP compression may affect earnings quality.
- Comparison
- 5M26 share at about 48%, below JD’s roughly 52%, but the month-over-month trend is improving.
- Risks
- Promotions may be unsustainable, tighter regulation of online dispensing, and intensifying price competition with JD Health.
- Eli Lilly / Mounjaro (Tirzepatide)The main driver of May online GLP-1 sales growth, with about 56% share of online B2C sales in 5M26.
- Strengths
- Strongest volume momentum, up about 61% to 64% month over month in May, reaching a monthly online sales scale of over Rmb500mn for the first time.
- Weaknesses
- Prices continue to fall after NRDL inclusion, with a double-digit percentage month-over-month ASP decline in June.
- Comparison
- Growth is significantly faster than Xinermei and the semaglutide portfolio, making it the current leader in the online market.
- Risks
- Price competition, changes in reimbursement and commercialization strategy, and competition from peer multi-target drugs.
- Innovent / Xinermei (Mazdutide)A domestic GLP-1/glucagon dual-target product and an important name to watch in online sales and clinical data.
- Strengths
- Strong DREAMS-3 and GLORY-2 data, showing advantages in glycemic control and composite weight-loss endpoints.
- Weaknesses
- Month-over-month sales growth slowed to +7%, with June ASP down about 25% month over month.
- Comparison
- Clinical results show highlights relative to semaglutide, but the commercial side is under short-term pressure from aggressive price cuts.
- Risks
- Continued ASP compression, gastrointestinal AEs, competing product launches, and policy restrictions.
- Semaglutide portfolio / Novo NordiskOzempic/Wegovy/Rybelsus form a mature benchmark, with May sales up 13% month over month.
- Strengths
- Solid brand and clinical foundation; price cuts for Wegovy/Rybelsus support year-over-year growth; oral Wegovy China NDA is expected to be submitted within months.
- Weaknesses
- Current growth is slower than Mounjaro, and it will face biosimilar pressure in the future.
- Comparison
- As a representative mature GLP-1 franchise, it is an important benchmark for new pipelines such as Mazdutide and Ecnoglutide.
- Risks
- A concentrated wave of biosimilar launches after patent expiry, price competition, and uncertainty around channel policy.
- China obesity drug pipelines and BD assetsChinese biotech has become an important source for MNCs seeking obesity and metabolic pipelines.
- Strengths
- Small-molecule, oral, long-acting, dual/triple-target, and non-incretin approaches are active, with deals such as Sciwind/Pfizer, AstraZeneca/CSPC, and GSK/SiranBio demonstrating external demand.
- Weaknesses
- Most assets are still in clinical or early commercialization stages, and efficacy, safety, and manufacturing costs still need validation.
- Comparison
- Relative to mature GLP-1s, differentiation is focused on oral convenience, long-acting dosing, multi-target mechanisms, and preservation of lean mass.
- Risks
- Clinical failure, NMPA approval delays, uncertainty in BD milestone realization, and homogeneous competition.
Key data
- May online sales of key productsRmb757mn, +41% month over monthCovers five key GLP-1 products; data from Meritco.
- Mounjaro sales momentumAbout +61% to +64% month over month; 56% share of online B2C sales in 5M26Mounjaro reached a monthly online sales scale of over Rmb500mn for the first time and was the main driver of May growth.
- Xinermei sales and pricingSales +7% month over month; 21% share in 5M26; June ASP about -25% month over monthPrice cuts have begun to affect sales momentum, but the clinical data still attract attention.
- Semaglutide portfolioSales +13% month over month; 23% share in 5M26; June year-over-year sales growth about 36%Ozempic/Wegovy/Rybelsus were relatively stable overall, supported by price cuts for Wegovy and Rybelsus.
- Platform share5M26 JD/Tmall about 52%/48%JD Health remains ahead, but Tmall has recovered somewhat with deeper discounts and promotions.
- Representativeness of online salesEstimated 80%+ of obesity GLP-1 sales come from online channelsThe obesity indication is not covered by public insurance reimbursement, and healthcare e-commerce penetration is relatively high in China.
- June maintenance-dose pricingXinermei about Rmb700/month; Mounjaro about Rmb500-700/month; Ozempic about Rmb500-600/monthClearly down versus levels at end-2025 or January 2026, with volume growth temporarily offsetting the pricing impact.
- JD Health user base2025 AAU +19% year over year, versus about +7% in 2024The peak food-delivery subsidy period from April to July 2025 created a high base, so traffic after June-July 2026 needs monitoring.
- Innovent Mazdutide clinical dataIn DREAMS-3, 48% achieved HbA1c <7.0% and ≥10% weight loss, versus 21% in the semaglutide groupIn GLORY-2, 9mg delivered average weight loss of 16.65% at 60 weeks; common AEs included vomiting 53%, nausea 47%, and diarrhea 39%, mostly mild to moderate.
- Hengrui HRS953126-week weight loss of 6.9%/12.1%/12.1%, versus 2.3% for placebo10/25/50mg dose data are from ADA 2026, with waist circumference reductions of about 10.8cm for 25mg and 50mg.
- Vincentage VCT22052-week weight loss of 12.2%/12.4%, versus 1.3% for placeboThe oral small-molecule GLP-1RA met its primary endpoint, and the company is preparing an NMPA filing.
- Semaglutide biosimilars26 finished-drug applications submitted to the CDE; about 7-8 of the first 12 companies have in-house API manufacturing capabilityIn-house API production is seen as key to cost efficiency and pricing flexibility.
Impact & implications
The report offers a constructive interpretation of 2H26 obesity GLP-1 demand in China: current volume growth can absorb the pressure from promotions and price cuts, online channels show resilience to regional prescription restrictions, and active R&D and BD are raising medium- to long-term industry attention. At the same time, investment judgments cannot ignore policy diffusion, the high base from platform subsidies, continued ASP declines, and profit and competitive pressure from a concentrated wave of biosimilar launches.
Risks
- If more provinces beyond Shanghai and Jiangxi follow with hospital prescription or retail/online dispensing restrictions, sentiment could be pressured and transaction processes affected.
- If the price declines driven by 6.18 and platform subsidies continue, ASPs and earnings quality may be eroded.
- The high user base created by the 2025 food-delivery subsidy war may pressure year-over-year traffic after June and July 2026.
- Meritco third-party high-frequency data have accuracy limitations, and historical data have already seen minor restatements.
- A concentrated wave of semaglutide biosimilar launches after patent expiry may intensify price competition.
- There is uncertainty around gastrointestinal AEs, regulatory approvals, NMPA filings, and commercialization timing for GLP-1 and multi-target drugs.
- The obesity indication is not covered by public insurance reimbursement, and patients’ willingness to self-pay is sensitive to pricing, the macro environment, and promotional intensity.
What to watch
- Whether the policies in Shanghai and Jiangxi are replicated or escalated by other provinces.
- Whether platform traffic and GLP-1 sales in June and July 2026 can overcome the high base from 2025.
- Whether volume growth for Mounjaro, Xinermei, and the semaglutide portfolio continues to offset ASP compression.
- Market share changes and promotional intensity between JD Health and Tmall/ALH.
- Clinical or approval milestones for oral Wegovy China NDA, VCT220 NMPA filing, Hengrui HRS9531, Ecnoglutide, Retatrutide, and Elecoglipron.
- CDE progress for semaglutide biosimilars and the listing pace of companies with in-house API manufacturing.
- Whether BD deals between MNCs and China obesity pipelines continue, and whether long-acting, oral, and non-incretin directions gain further validation.