In April, global shipbuilding orders, values and prices rebounded month-on-month, and additional capacity was put in place earlier

Overview

This report is Goldman’s May global shipyard monthly log tracking global April newbuilding orders, orderbook, newbuild prices, regional shares, shipbuilding costs and changes in yard capacity. The core view is that the month-on-month deterioration seen in March reversed in April, with order volume, order value and prices all improving; tanker earnings remain elevated and dry bulk freight has improved, and with incremental capacity already coming online at selected Chinese and Korean yards, subsequent orders should continue to be supported.

Core views

First, both global newbuilding order volume and value in April returned to growth, with order volume of 6.5mn CGTs and order value of US$20.6bn, up 28% and 44% month-on-month respectively. Second, containership, dry bulk and cruise ship orders were the main drivers of the rebound in order-value month-on-month gains, while tanker orders declined month-on-month but were still up 130% year-on-year. Third, Chinese yards’ overall order share rebounded from 57% in March to 67% in April, while Korea’s share fell from 34% to 16%, but Korea still holds 100% in LNGC orders. Fourth, capacity changes at Hengli, Dajin Panjin and Gunsan imply increasing order absorption capacity for tankers and dry bulk, and Hengli’s order coverage period after including Phase III is 2.6x, below the global average of 3.7x, leaving room to win more orders.

Analysis framework

The report uses Clarksons order, price and delivery data, and combines company disclosures, news sources and Goldman’s global shipyard supply-demand model to break down order volume, order value, orderbook, dynamic return on investment, costs and capacity changes by vessel type, region and covered company, and maps these metrics to the covered shipyards’ order outlook, earnings sensitivity and valuation logic.

Methodology notes

• industry supply-demandglobal shipyard S-D model

  Measures shipyard supply-demand tightness by effective capacity, orderbook coverage and new order demand.

  The report incorporates Hengli Phase III’s earlier completion and ramp-up in the model and focuses on how newly added or restarted capacity at Dajin Panjin and Gunsan affects global effective capacity.

• earnings metricDynamic RoI

  Estimates newbuilding investment returns based on vessel rates or TCE by vessel type.

  As of 2026-05-01, containership Dynamic RoI remains 31%, VLCC can reach 42% under Goldman’s 2026E TCE assumption of US$150k/day, and bulk carriers rose from 12% in March to 14%; LNG is 13%.

• pricing indicatorClarksons newbuild price index

  Tracks global newbuild price cycles using Clarksons’ newbuilding price index.

  In April the index rose 0.7% month-on-month to 183, the first month-on-month improvement in 2026; the index is 3.4% below the September 2024 peak but 46% above the end of 2020 level.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Guangdong Songfa Ceramics / Hengli Heavy Industry

  Buy-rated covered asset, with Hengli Heavy Industry as the core shipbuilding asset.

  Strengths

  Hengli Phase III expansion is progressing faster than expected; adjusted order coverage period is 2.6x, below the global average; in April it won 18 orders, including 14 bulk carriers, 2 VLCCs and 2 LPG carriers; the tanker supercycle and improved dry bulk freight provide order pull.

  Weaknesses

  Higher execution risk for expansion, delivery and ramp-up; earnings are sensitive to steel prices, ASP and FX rates.

  Comparison

  Goldman expects Hengli’s 2025-2027 capacity CAGR to be 29%, materially above the global peer average of 3%; by end-2027, target capacity share is expected to reach 7%.

  Risks

  Delivery delays or delayed release of new capacity; unexpectedly high steel prices; new orders below expectations; ASP below expectations; stronger-than-expected RMB appreciation versus USD; other yards’ expansions faster than expected.

• Yangzijiang Shipbuilding

  Buy-rated covered yard.

  Strengths

  Cost advantage, higher returns and strong pricing competitiveness in profitable orders; expected to accelerate order win after new capacity is added by end-2026.

  Weaknesses

  Needs confirmation of recovery pace after weaker new orders in 2025; current P/B of around 2x is above historical average.

  Comparison

  Order coverage period is about 3.7x, roughly in line with global average; new capacity from Hongyuan Shipyard is expected to support future order wins.

  Risks

  Slower than expected recovery in new order intake, delays in capacity rollout, and potential pullback in global ship prices or margins.

• Namura Shipbuilding Co.

  Buy-rated covered Japanese shipyard.

  Strengths

  Benefits from replacement of older fleets, upgrade toward cleaner vessel fleets, and the long-term revival of Japanese shipbuilding.

  Weaknesses

  April order volume in Japan remains light, at only about 0.1mn CGTs.

  Comparison

  Japan’s overall order coverage period is about 2.2x, below both China and the global average.

  Risks

  Persistent low Japanese yard share, cost inflation, or weaker-than-expected order recovery.

• Mitsui E&S Co.

  Buy-rated covered Japanese related shipbuilding asset.

  Strengths

  Long-term beneficiary of older fleet replacement, demand for cleaner ships and the revival of Japan’s shipbuilding industry.

  Weaknesses

  Weak Japanese new order activity in the near term.

  Comparison

  Like Namura, it is also a Goldman-favored beneficiary of Japan’s shipbuilding revival.

  Risks

  Order recovery, cost and shipping-cycle recovery below expectations.

• Dajin Heavy Industry 002487.SS / Panjin Shipyard

  New capacity monitoring candidate.

  Strengths

  Panjin Shipyard is designed for annual delivery of 6 large vessels; Goldman estimates about 0.3mn CGT capacity; it already has 13 orders, including 8 bulk carriers signed in April 2026.

  Weaknesses

  Some VLCC orders are still at the negotiation/news stage, with uncertainty around execution.

  Comparison

  This capacity has been included in Goldman’s "China others" capacity forecast.

  Risks

  Order conversion, delivery pacing and utilization of new capacity below expectations.

• Gunsan Shipyard

  Korean restarted/transformed capacity monitoring candidate.

  Strengths

  Historically peaked at about 0.5mn CGTs of deliveries, with a 700m dry dock and 1,650-ton gantry cranes; delivered 92 vessels between 2010 and 2017, including 20 VLCCs.

  Weaknesses

  After being idle for a long period since 2017, the restart shifted from block construction toward VLCCs and US Naval ships MRO, which still needs to be verified.

  Comparison

  Historically accounted for about 1% of global deliveries and 5%-17% of global VLCC delivery CGTs.

  Risks

  Restart pace, timing of first VLCC delivery, MRO order flow and capacity utilization remain uncertain.

Key data

• April global newbuilding order volume6.5mn CGTsMoM +28%, YoY +21%.
• April global newbuilding order valueUS$20.6bnMoM +44%, YoY +15%.
• Clarksons newbuilding price index183MoM +0.7%, first month-on-month improvement in 2026.
• Global orderbook197mn CGTsUp 1% month-on-month at end-April; containerships, tankers and bulk carriers account for 30%, 19% and 16% respectively.
• Global order coverage period3.7xChina, Korea and Japan are 4.3x, 3.1x, and 2.2x respectively.
• China new order market share in April67%Rebounded from 57% in March; tanker new order share is 77%.
• Korea new order market share in April16%Down from 34% in March; LNGC order share is 100%.
• Hengli adjusted order coverage period2.6xBelow the global average of 3.7x after including Phase III capacity.
• Yangzijiang orderbook~8.6mn CGTsAs of end-April 2026, MoM -1%, YoY flat.
• Hengli orderbook~10.9mn CGTsAs of end-April 2026, MoM +4%, YoY +116%.

Impact & implications

For investors, the concurrent improvement in orders, prices and earnings metrics reinforces the view that the shipbuilding upcycle remains in force. Chinese yards benefit from higher market share, cost advantage and new capacity, and Hengli may benefit from the tanker supercycle and continued order win potential supported by a low order coverage period; Yangzijiang is expected to resume winning orders after new capacity is brought online at the end of 2026. Korean yards saw lower overall share in the short term, but remain strong in high-end vessel types such as LNGC. Attention should remain on potential pressure on margins and pricing cycles from rising steel prices and from too-rapid release of new capacity.

Risks

• Delays in delivery or release of new capacity.
• Steel prices above expectations, compressing shipyard margins.
• New order wins below expectations.
• Newbuild ASP below expectations or a pullback in the Clarksons newbuilding price index.
• RMB appreciation versus USD stronger than expected harming Chinese shipyard profits.
• Other yards expanding faster than expected, weakening supply-demand tightness.
• Tanker TCE, dry bulk freight or Dynamic RoI falling, reducing owners’ propensity to order.

What to watch

• Whether Hengli Phase III proceeds to mid-2026 completion and full production by end-2026 as projected.
• Whether tankers, dry bulk and containership new orders continue to improve after April.
• Whether the Clarksons newbuilding price index can sustain month-on-month gains.
• Monthly changes in new order shares of Chinese, Korean and Japanese yards.
• New order announcements and order coverage periods for Hengli, Yangzijiang, Namura and Mitsui E&S.
• Steel price movements in China, Korea and Japan and Japanese marine diesel engine PPI trends.
• Progress of first VLCC delivery and US Navy MRO business after Gunsan Shipyard restart.