Goldwind Technology's 1Q26 results beat expectations; UBS maintains Buy rating

Overview

This report is UBS's review of Goldwind Technology's A-share 1Q26 results. The company's 1Q26 performance exceeded expectations, with key highlights including strong revenue growth, a significant increase in turbine deliveries, and a quarter-on-quarter rebound in gross margin and net margin. The report believes the earnings improvement was mainly driven by growth in wind turbine sales volume and gross margin recovery from higher product prices.

Core views

UBS maintains its Buy rating, EPS forecasts, and target price for Goldwind Technology unchanged. The core judgment is that the company's operating momentum in 1Q26 was stronger than expected, with turbine deliveries surging 133% year-on-year; total contracted orders remained at 53.9GW, including 9.6GW of overseas orders, indicating a stable order base; meanwhile, margin improvement enhanced earnings quality. Near-term catalysts include a greater profit contribution from green chemicals and faster overseas expansion.

Analysis framework

The report combines earnings breakdown and valuation review: it first compares 1Q26 net profit, revenue, deliveries, gross margin, and net margin against market expectations and quarter-on-quarter changes, then assesses earnings quality together with order scale, investment income, and business outlook, and finally maintains the target price through a sum-of-the-parts valuation method.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsSum-of-the-parts valuation

  Segment valuation

  UBS uses a sum-of-the-parts approach to determine Goldwind Technology's target share price, which is suitable for a company spanning turbine manufacturing, wind farm development and operations, and new businesses.

• Earnings AnalysisQuarterly earnings breakdown

  Breakdown of revenue, deliveries, gross margin, and net margin

  The report attributes the 1Q26 earnings beat to year-on-year growth in turbine deliveries, gross margin improvement driven by higher product prices, and the contribution of increased investment income to net margin.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Goldwind Technology A-shares (002202.SZ)

  Report coverage target

  Strengths

  1Q26 revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, turbine deliveries grew sharply, gross margin and net margin improved quarter-on-quarter, and order backlog remained stable.

  Weaknesses

  Performance remains affected by turbine manufacturing costs, product price cycles, financing costs, and wind power installation policies.

  Comparison

  UBS's 12/26E and 12/27E EPS forecasts are above consensus, while 12/28E is in line with consensus.

  Risks

  Rising costs, constraints on new wind power installations, rising curtailment rates, and higher financing costs.

Key data

• 1Q26 net profitRmb907 millionUp 60% year-on-year and above market expectations.
• 1Q26 revenueRmb15.0 billionUp 63% year-on-year.
• 1Q26 turbine deliveries6.04GWUp 133% year-on-year; of which about 4.3GW were 6-10MW models and about 1.2GW were models above 10MW.
• 1Q26 gross margin16.8%Up 3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, mainly driven by higher product prices.
• 1Q26 net margin6.5%Up 5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by gross margin improvement and increased investment income.
• 1Q26 investment incomeRmb282 millionHigher than Rmb87 million in 4Q25.
• Total contracted orders53.9GWAs of the end of 1Q26, broadly flat versus the end of 2025.
• Overseas orders9.6GWAs of the end of 1Q26, broadly flat versus the end of 2025.
• 12-month target priceRmb33.10Maintained unchanged by UBS.
• Current priceRmb25.48As of 2026-04-24.
• Market capitalizationRmb108.0 billion / US$15.7 billionAs presented in the report.
• 12/26E EPSUBS: Rmb1.11; consensus: Rmb0.99From the report's EPS table.
• 12/27E EPSUBS: Rmb1.27; consensus: Rmb1.23From the report's EPS table.
• 12/28E EPSUBS: Rmb1.52; consensus: Rmb1.52From the report's EPS table.

Impact & implications

If improving turbine prices and delivery growth continue, Goldwind Technology's earnings elasticity and valuation support are likely to strengthen. Stable order scale and progress in overseas business help improve revenue visibility, but turbine costs, policy limits on installations, curtailment rates, and financing costs remain key variables affecting earnings delivery.

Risks

• Further increases in costs for wind turbine manufacturers.
• Government or grid restrictions on new wind power installations could result in turbine sales falling short of expectations.
• Increased power curtailment or wind curtailment rates.
• Rising financing costs.
• If green chemicals or overseas expansion fall short of expectations, near-term catalysts may fail to materialize.

What to watch

• Whether turbine deliveries can sustain high growth in subsequent quarters.
• Whether higher product prices can continue to support gross margin.
• Whether total contracted orders and overseas orders continue to expand.
• The actual earnings contribution from the green chemicals business.
• The pace of overseas business expansion and order conversion.
• Changes in financing costs and the sustainability of investment income.