Yingliu Shares: Volume and Pricing of Gas Turbine Blades Both Rising, Capacity Expansion Accelerating

Overview

This report summarizes key insights from Goldman Sachs’ 2026 China AI Data Center (AIDC) + Power Supply Virtual Company Day, focusing on gas turbine blade suppliers Yingliu Shares (603308.SS) and Wanzex Shares. The report argues that strong demand for gas turbine blades is being driven by constrained global OEM capacity and surging demand for gas-fired power from AI data centers. As a leading high-end casting manufacturer, Yingliu Shares is capturing overflow demand from the global supply chain thanks to its capacity advantage, cost-effectiveness, and strong customer relationships. Goldman Sachs maintains a 'Buy' rating with a target price of RMB 92, forecasting 2025–2030 sales and earnings CAGRs of 29% and 51%, respectively.

Core views

Demand shows structural strength, with Yingliu Shares’ heavy-duty gas turbine segment standing out. In 1Q26, the company secured RMB 840 million in new orders—approximately RMB 7 billion from overseas and RMB 1.4 billion domestically. By end-use market, heavy-duty gas turbines contributed RMB 5.33 billion, or 63% of total new orders. Cumulative new orders surpassed RMB 10 billion by end-April. Backlog for its dual-engine business (aero engines + gas turbines) stood at RMB 2.11 billion as of 1Q26, with heavy-duty gas turbines accounting for RMB 1.288 billion. Pricing and profitability are turning a corner. Since March, prices of newly signed orders have modestly increased. While the company does not plan to proactively raise prices on existing products to deter potential new entrants, the rising share of higher-priced new orders will continue to improve the overall pricing mix. In contrast, Wanzex Shares uses a 'production cost + fixed gross margin' pricing model, allowing more direct pass-through of raw material cost fluctuations. Capacity expansion plans are aggressive, supporting long-term growth. Yingliu Shares has raised its 2030 capacity guidance to over RMB 6 billion. To support this expansion, the company has procured three large vacuum furnaces, expected to arrive rapidly between May and July; two additional units purchased in March are scheduled for delivery in the first half of 2027. Year-to-date capital expenditures have already reached RMB 3 billion, with an additional RMB 3–5 billion expected over the next two years. Wanzex Shares is similarly aggressive, targeting RMB 1.7–1.8 billion in capacity by end-2026 and RMB 5.5–6.0 billion by 2030. Multiple catalysts are imminent. Yingliu Shares has received approval from Siemens Energy to develop a new gas turbine model specifically for North America, with an estimated development cycle of 12–18 months. The prototype for the 4000F model is expected to be submitted in June–July; if approved, bulk orders could reach 5–10x the sample size. Additionally, the company is likely Doosan Enerbility’s sole Chinese supplier and is participating in tenders for Dongfang Electric’s G50 platform and China United Heavy-Duty Gas Turbine Technology.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs employs a combined top-down and bottom-up analytical framework. First, from a macro industry perspective, it notes that up to 60% of power for U.S. AI data centers is expected to come from gas turbines, while major global OEMs (Siemens Energy, GE Vernova, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries) face severe capacity constraints. Blades represent a critical bottleneck due to high metallurgical requirements, Western suppliers (e.g., PCC, Howmet) prioritizing aerospace, and labor shortages. Second, micro-level company research validates this thesis. Comparing Yingliu Shares (focused on heavy-duty turbines) and Wanzex Shares (focused on light-duty turbines and aero engines) in terms of order structure, pricing mechanisms, and capacity plans confirms Yingliu’s unique advantage in capturing global overflow demand: ample available capacity, competitive pricing with comparable quality, and solid R&D and customer relationships. Finally, valuation is based on a long-term discounted cash flow approach. Given the company’s current global market share of less than 1%, significant growth potential exists. The target price is derived by estimating 2030 earnings and applying a 30x P/E multiple, then discounting back to 2027.

Methodology notes

• Industry/ Sector Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Supply-Demand Imbalance Analysis

  The report analyzes incremental power demand from AI data centers (demand side) against capacity bottlenecks among global OEMs and Western blade suppliers (supply side), concluding that the blade segment is experiencing high景气度 (strong momentum) and that Yingliu Shares is a key beneficiary.

• Valuation MethodPE/PEG valuation

  Forward PE Discounting Method

  For high-growth manufacturing companies, the report estimates terminal value using a 2030E P/E multiple of 30x, then discounts it back to 2027E at a 10% cost of equity to avoid short-term volatility and capture long-term growth value.

• Competition & Strategy FrameworkMoat / competitive advantage

  Supply Chain Substitution Logic

  Emphasizes Yingliu Shares’ role as a complementary supplier to Western vendors, leveraging metallurgical technology barriers, cost advantages, and customer certifications to capture 'overflow demand' during global supply chain stress, thereby building medium-term competitive moats.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Yingliu Shares (603308.SS)

  Beneficiary. Core recipient of overflow demand amid global gas turbine blade capacity constraints, with clear advantages in heavy-duty turbines.

  Strengths

  Ample capacity, high cost-performance ratio, deep certifications with key customers like Siemens and Baker Hughes, smooth R&D progress.

  Weaknesses

  Still low global market share (<1%), long development cycles for new SKUs.

  Comparison

  Compared to Wanzex Shares, Yingliu focuses more on heavy-duty turbines with higher per-unit value and stronger complementarity with Western giants.

  Risks

  Capacity ramp-up delays, new model development slippage, weakening AI data center demand.

• Wanzex Shares (000534.SZ)

  Non-covered name. Supplier of light-duty gas turbine and aero engine blades, also benefiting from sector tailwinds.

  Strengths

  Flexible pricing model (cost-plus), expected involvement in CJ-1000 commercial engine program, expansion into Saudi MRO market.

  Weaknesses

  Report does not detail specific weaknesses.

  Comparison

  Focuses on light-duty turbines and aero engines; minor overlap with Yingliu on certain Siemens models but largely differentiated positioning.

  Risks

  Report does not specify concrete risks, only mentions industry-wide risks.

Key data

• 1Q26 New OrdersRMB 840 millionHeavy-duty gas turbines contributed RMB 5.33 billion (63%); cumulative orders exceeded RMB 10 billion by end-April
• Order BacklogRMB 2.11 billionAs of end-1Q26, with RMB 1.288 billion from heavy-duty gas turbines
• 2030 Capacity Guidance>RMB 6 billionRevised upward capacity target for Yingliu Shares
• Target PriceRMB 92.0Based on 2030E 30x P/E discounted to 2027E
• 2025E–30E CAGRSales 29% / Earnings 51%Goldman Sachs’ long-term growth forecast for Yingliu Shares

Impact & implications

The report views Yingliu Shares as transitioning from a 'supplementary supplier' to a 'core participant.' With ongoing R&D progress on the North American gas turbine model and anticipated bulk deliveries of the 4000F model, the company could achieve step-change order growth within the next 12–18 months. For the industry, Chinese suppliers’ breakthrough in heavy-duty gas turbine blades signals a subtle shift in the global supply chain—while Western dominance remains, Chinese capacity has become a necessary complement to alleviate global shortages.

Risks

• Capacity ramp-up delays: Failure to improve yields or difficulties hiring skilled technicians.
• Lower-than-expected order growth: Long development cycles for new SKUs may slow order realization.
• Weakening AIDC demand: Hyperscalers canceling orders with gas turbine manufacturers.

What to watch

• Siemens Energy’s design review and pricing finalization for the new North American gas turbine model (design expected in May, 12–18 month development cycle).
• Submission of 4000F prototype (expected June–July) and subsequent bulk order negotiations.
• Tender results for Dongfang Electric’s G50 platform and China United Heavy-Duty Gas Turbine Technology.
• Delivery and commissioning progress of new equipment like vacuum furnaces (accelerated arrivals expected May–July).