Large-sized SUVs Take Center Stage, Demand Remains Weak
AI summary card
Large-sized SUVs Take Center Stage, Demand Remains Weak
Nomura expert interviews indicate that after the Beijing Auto Show, automakers concentrated their bets on large-sized SUV segments, but overall demand in the Chinese market during March-April remained relatively weak, with exports continuing to be a key variable for industry performance this year.
- Automakers compete to layout large-sized SUVs, targeting the "1+N" demand trend for first-time family car buyers
- China auto market demand remained weak in March-April; fuel cars faced significant pressure while new energy vehicles remained relatively stable
- 2026 is a critical year for joint venture companies' electrification transformation in China
- Supply chain (batteries, SoC, chassis) gains influence in the wave of intelligence
- Short-term attention needed for policy uncertainty and insufficient store visit traffic leading to demand hesitation
Report interpretation
Overview
This is a quick review based on automotive industry expert interviews, focusing on two major phenomena in the Chinese auto market after the Beijing Auto Show: first, mainstream automakers collectively concentrate resources on large-sized SUV new products; second, overall terminal demand remains weak in March-April. The report also cites latest order data from brands such as Li Auto, NIO, XPENG, BYD, Zeekr, Xiaomi, Leapmotor, etc., and makes judgments on 2026 joint venture electrification transformation and supply chain role changes.
Core views
Demand Side: Performance of the Chinese market in March-April cannot be described as ideal. New energy vehicles (EV) remain relatively stable, but fuel cars (ICE) saw a significant year-on-year decline. Dealership walk-in traffic additions are limited, and inventory pressure is generally high. Experts judge that unless policy direction becomes clear in the second half, consumers will remain in an "waiting for policy" observation state. Product Side: The Beijing Auto Send sent a clear signal - mainstream automakers have shifted focus to large-sized SUVs, attempting to grasp the consumer trend of "1+N" (first satisfy a large vehicle need, then consider sedans/MPVs, etc.) under family car usage scenarios. Recently launched models include NIO ES9, AITO M9, XPENG GX, BYD Da Tang, Leapmotor D19, etc. Experts predict that the 200,000+ RMB SUV market will face fiercer share struggle after BYD Da Tang officially launches. Industrial Transformation: 2026 is seen as a critical year for joint venture enterprises' electrification transformation in China. There were almost no automakers investing resources in traditional ICE models at the Auto Show, except one Japanese automaker, with others focusing on new energy. Experts believe local teams of joint venture brands will lead and accelerate EV transformation in 2026. Supply Chain: Supply chain companies such as batteries, automotive SoCs, and by-wire chassis showed significantly increased visibility at the Auto Show. As intelligence and functional configurations become competition focal points, the strategic position of key component suppliers in the industry is expected to rise. However, consumer sensitivity to L2+ autonomous driving upgrades is currently not high, instead more focus is placed on practical experience upgrades such as by-wire chassis.
Analysis framework
This report adopts the approach of "expert interviews + frontline orders/inventory grassroots research," rapidly scanning the Chinese auto market from four dimensions: demand, supply (products and capacity), competitive landscape, and supply chain. Its analysis mainline is: first judge product direction through the Beijing Auto Show as an industrial window, then track terminal orders and walk-in traffic to verify demand intensity, finally integrate brand competition, joint venture transformation, and supply chain changes into the same framework to evaluate key variables for the industry in 2026.
Methodology notes
Supply-Demand Framework
Automobile industry analysis often revolves around "Demand-Supply-Price/Inventory": Demand side looks at terminal orders, walk-in traffic and policy stimulus; Supply side looks at new car launches, capacity layout and competitors' product matrix. This report uses Auto Show new products to map supply, verifies demand using dealership traffic and order data, thereby judging industry conditions.
Upstream-Midstream-Downstream Supply Chain Transmission
Intensifying whole vehicle competition transmits demand to upstream parts and supply chain. The rising importance of battery, SoC, and by-wire chassis suppliers mentioned in the report reflects downstream intelligent demand transmitting to upstream supply chain.
Product Life Cycle
In the phase of improving electrification penetration rate, large SUVs are becoming the core category for family users' first car purchases, corresponding to the rapid growth period of the product life cycle. The report explains why all parties concentrate on pushing large-sized SUVs using the "1+N" consumption structure.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- BYD (BYD)Dynasty/Ocean series orders stable, blade battery 2.0 and ultra-fast charging models (Song Ultra, Da Tang) expected to continue pulling demand
- Strengths
- Large order scale (45-50k/week), fast tech iteration, Da Tang expected to reshape 200,000+ RMB SUV landscape
- Risks
- Intense competition in large-sized SUV segment, policy uncertainty affecting consumption rhythm
- Li Auto (Li Auto)i/L series maintains certain order volume, L9 Livis upcoming launch
- Strengths
- i-series weekly orders ~5k, L-series ~3k, clear brand positioning
- Weaknesses
- L9 Livis market expectation may cool down
- Risks
- New car launch performance below expectations, increasing competitors in SUV segment
- NIO (NIO)ES8 orders stable, ES9 pre-orders show good performance
- Strengths
- ES8 not significantly impacted by competitors, ES9 pre-orders close to 35k, potential considerable with 60-70% conversion rate
- Risks
- Uncertainty in pre-order conversion rate
- XPENG (XPENG)Mona brand orders stable, new model implicit price increase improves ASP
- Strengths
- Mona weekly orders ~3k, ASP improvement
- Risks
- Price increase may affect sales elasticity
- Zeekr (Zeekr)9X, 8X strong demand drives orders over 10k
- Strengths
- Recent two weeks orders both exceed 10k, large SUV new products accepted
- Risks
- Capacity ramp-up and delivery rhythm
- Xiaomi (Xiaomi)SU7/YU7 dual-model contribute weekly avg 8k+ orders
- Strengths
- SU7/YU7 demand both relatively stable
- Risks
- Capacity and new model delivery capability
- Leapmotor (Leapmotor)D19 cumulative orders continue growing, total weekly orders over 18k
- Strengths
- Sustainable order growth, D19 cumulative possibly reached 12k by end of April
- Risks
- Intensified competition in large-sized SUV segment
Key data
- Li Auto i-series Weekly New Orders~5,000 vehiclesRecent weeks performance
- Li Auto L-series Weekly New Orders~3,000 vehiclesRecent weeks performance
- NIO (including NIO and firefly, excluding Onvo) Weekly Orders~5,000-5,500 vehiclesRecent weeks performance
- NIO ES8 Weekly New Orders~2,500 vehiclesRelatively stable, not significantly impacted by competitors
- NIO ES9 Pre-order OrdersClose to 35,000 vehiclesIf 60-70% conversion rate expected results will be considerable
- XPENG Mona Brand Weekly Orders~3,000 vehiclesNew model has implicit price increase this year
- BYD Dynasty/Ocean Series Weekly Orders45,000-50,000 vehiclesMaintained recently
- Denza Latest Weekly Orders~2,500-3,000 vehiclesRecent weeks performance
- Zeekr Recent Two Weeks OrdersBoth exceeded 10,000 vehiclesZeekr 9X, 8X demand strong
- Xiaomi Weekly New OrdersExceeding 8,000 vehiclesSU7 ~6,500 vehicles, YU7 ~2,000 vehicles
- Leapmotor Weekly OrdersExceeding 18,000 vehiclesRecent weeks performance
- Leapmotor D19 Cumulative Orders (as of end of April)Likely reached 12,000 vehiclesMaintaining sustainable growth trend
Impact & implications
The report states that 2026 China auto market will present three characteristics: "Deepening Electrification, Rise of Larger SUVs, Accelerated Localization of Joint Venture Brands." Large-sized SUVs are becoming the main battlefield for brand building and share competition, but uncertainty in demand side and wavering policy expectations mean the industry will still bear pressure in the short term. Exports are seen as an important variable supporting full-year industry performance, and if joint venture carmakers cannot establish a competitive local EV product matrix quickly in this round of transformation, their fuel car share may continue to be squeezed.
Risks
- China local auto demand continues to remain weak, dealership new walk-in traffic insufficient
- 2026 subsequent policy stimulus direction and strength uncertain, consumers may continue to observe
- Large-sized SUV segment competition intensifies, price war pressure rises
- Fuel car (ICE) share shrinks rapidly, traditional joint ventures and ICE business bear pressure
- Industry dependence on exports rises, external environment changes may impact growth
What to watch
- Clarity of 2026 subsequent auto stimulus/consumption policies
- Order conversion situation after main automaker new models densely launch following Beijing Auto Show
- Specific impact of BYD Da Tang launch on 200,000+ RMB SUV market
- Product landing rhythm of joint venture carmakers' electrification transformation in China
- Export data and overseas market demand changes