In Week 25, China new energy vehicle orders rose 31% year over year and 34% month over month, with new model launches lifting industry momentum

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' weekly chartbook on China's new energy vehicle market, covering orders for key new energy vehicle brands in Week 25 of 2026, passenger vehicle and new energy vehicle retail/wholesale performance, dealer terminal discounts, and upstream battery material prices. The core conclusion is that new model launches drove significant year-over-year and month-over-month growth in weekly new energy vehicle orders, industry penetration remained high, but terminal discounts and upstream raw material prices still require continued monitoring.

Core views

The report believes that demand for new energy vehicles in China remained strong in Week 25 of 2026, with total orders for key manufacturers up 31% year over year and 34% month over month, and new model launches serving as the main catalyst. At the brand level, BYD, Xiaomi, and Leapmotor saw the strongest month-over-month order growth; on a year-to-date basis, Nio, HIMA, and Tesla were relatively defensive. CPCA data show that overall passenger vehicle sales in the first half of June remained under year-over-year pressure, but new energy vehicle wholesale volume grew year over year and penetration stayed high, indicating that new energy vehicles continue to maintain a structural advantage over internal combustion engine vehicles. On pricing, new energy vehicle discounts narrowed slightly month over month, while internal combustion engine vehicle discounts widened month over month, showing that competitive pressure persists but is clearly differentiated.

Analysis framework

The report uses a weekly high-frequency tracking framework, combining observations of orders from key brands, CPCA retail/wholesale data, terminal dealer discounts, and battery material prices to assess new energy vehicle demand momentum, pricing competition intensity, and cost-side changes. The event calendar is used to flag potential catalysts in the coming weeks, including new vehicle launches, presales, monthly sales releases, and CPCA data disclosures.

Methodology notes

• Industry high-frequency trackingWeekly new energy vehicle order tracking

  By tracking year-over-year and month-over-month changes in weekly orders of key new energy vehicle brands, this framework observes short-term demand momentum and the impact of new model launches.

  This method is suitable for identifying the impact of new model releases, promotions, and seasonal factors on short-term orders, but weekly data are volatile and need to be validated against monthly deliveries and wholesale/retail data.

• Industry penetration analysisCPCA retail and wholesale penetration

  It measures the industry's structural substitution trend by using the share of new energy vehicle retail and wholesale volume in the overall passenger vehicle market.

  The report cites CPCA data from June 1 to 14 and compares overall passenger vehicle versus new energy vehicle retail and wholesale performance to judge the relative strength of new energy vehicles versus internal combustion engine vehicles.

• Pricing competition analysisDealer discount tracking

  It uses the ratio of average dealer discount relative to MSRP to measure terminal pricing pressure.

  New energy vehicle discounts narrowed slightly month over month while internal combustion engine vehicle discounts widened month over month, indicating divergence in the pricing competition landscape across different powertrain types.

• Cost-side trackingBattery material and cell price tracking

  It tracks battery-grade lithium carbonate as well as LFP and NCM cell prices to assess changes in power battery cost pressure.

  In this period, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell 4.0% month over month, while prismatic LFP and NCM cell prices were stable month over month, with potential implications for margins across vehicle manufacturers and the battery supply chain.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China new energy vehicle manufacturers

  Direct industry coverage target

  Strengths

  Weekly orders rose clearly both year over year and month over month, while new energy vehicle penetration remained high.

  Weaknesses

  Overall passenger vehicle retail and wholesale volumes remain under year-over-year pressure, and weekly orders may be heavily influenced by short-term catalysts from new model launches.

  Comparison

  Compared with internal combustion engine vehicles, new energy vehicles performed better in penetration and wholesale growth.

  Risks

  Price competition, reliance on promotions, fading momentum of new model launches, and macro consumption pressure.

• BYD

  Key brand and this week's leading growth performer

  Strengths

  Weekly orders rose 134% month over month, with the June 17 launch of Da Tang acting as a catalyst; the average dealer discount is below the industry average for new energy vehicles.

  Weaknesses

  Given the brand's large scale, the sustainability of follow-up growth still needs verification through monthly sales.

  Comparison

  Month-over-month order growth exceeded that of Xiaomi and Leapmotor.

  Risks

  Conversion of new vehicle orders, competitor promotions, and terminal pricing pressure.

• Xiaomi

  Key new energy vehicle brand

  Strengths

  Weekly orders rose 44% month over month, showing strong short-term order momentum.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not disclose more detailed model mix or delivery fulfillment information.

  Comparison

  Its month-over-month growth rate was lower than BYD's but higher than Leapmotor's.

  Risks

  Production and delivery capacity, order sustainability, and competition among similarly priced models.

• Leapmotor

  Key new energy vehicle brand and beneficiary of new model catalysts

  Strengths

  Weekly orders rose 22% month over month, with facelifts of the C10/C11/C16 launched on June 16; the D99 presale was also listed as a follow-up event to watch.

  Weaknesses

  Part of the growth came from facelift launches, so sustainability remains to be seen.

  Comparison

  Its month-over-month order growth ranked among the top three high-growth brands mentioned in the report.

  Risks

  New product conversion rates, price competition, and changes in the brand competitive landscape.

• Nio, HIMA, Tesla

  Relatively defensive brands on a year-to-date order basis

  Strengths

  YTD orders increased 96%, 31%, and 3% year over year, respectively, making them relatively defensive under the report's framework.

  Weaknesses

  Tesla's year-over-year growth rate was relatively low, while Nio and HIMA still need observation on new product and channel momentum.

  Comparison

  Unlike the Week 25 brands with high month-over-month growth, the highlight for this group lies in the year-to-date dimension.

  Risks

  Product cycles, delivery pace, brand competition, and changes in the policy environment.

• Power batteries and upstream materials

  Cost side of the new energy vehicle supply chain

  Strengths

  Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices declined month over month, potentially easing some cost pressure; LFP and NCM cell prices were stable month over month.

  Weaknesses

  Falling material prices may not immediately flow through to vehicle profits and may also reflect weakening supply-demand expectations.

  Comparison

  Upstream raw material prices changed faster than cell prices, with the cell segment more stable this week.

  Risks

  Raw material price volatility, inventory cycles, supply-demand mismatches, and battery pricing competition.

Key data

• Total orders for key new energy vehicle manufacturers in Week 25+31% year over year, +34% month over monthThe statistical period is June 15 to June 21, 2026, and the growth was mainly driven by new model launches.
• Leading brands in month-over-month order growthBYD +134%, Xiaomi +44%, Leapmotor +22%The report identifies these three as the key brands with the highest month-over-month order growth in Week 25.
• Relatively defensive brands in year-to-date ordersNio +96%, HIMA +31%, Tesla +3% year over yearThe report states that these brands were relatively defensive on a YTD order basis.
• Passenger vehicle retail volume from June 1 to 14534k units, -18% year over year, -5% month over monthData are from CPCA weekly trends.
• Passenger vehicle wholesale volume from June 1 to 14556k units, -15% year over year, +8% month over monthData are from CPCA weekly trends.
• New energy vehicle retail volume from June 1 to 14341k units, -8% year over year, +5% month over monthNew energy vehicle retail performance was more resilient than the overall passenger vehicle market.
• New energy vehicle wholesale volume from June 1 to 14378k units, +10% year over year, +22% month over monthNew energy vehicle wholesale volume increased both year over year and month over month.
• New energy vehicle retail/wholesale penetration63.9%/67.9%Data from June 1 to 14, above May's 63%/61.1%.
• Average dealer discount for new energy vehicles7.48%As of June 20, 2026, versus 7.54% in the prior week and 8.15% on June 23, 2025.
• Average dealer discount for BYD4.27%As of June 20, 2026, unchanged from 4.27% in the prior week and versus 5.50% on June 23, 2025.
• Average dealer discount for internal combustion engine vehicles19.62%As of June 20, 2026, versus 19.56% in the prior week and 22.95% on June 23, 2025.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceRmb167.5k/ton, -4.0% month over monthPrismatic LFP and prismatic NCM cell prices were stable month over month.

Impact & implications

The report's implications for China's new energy vehicle supply chain are broadly positive: in the short term, orders are being boosted by the new model cycle, and the structural penetration of new energy vehicles relative to internal combustion engine vehicles continues to deepen; if the improvement in orders is validated in subsequent monthly deliveries and wholesale/retail data, it would strengthen market confidence in the resilience of industry demand. However, discounts for both new energy vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles remain elevated, indicating that price competition has not fully subsided; declining upstream lithium carbonate prices help ease cost pressure, but may also reflect changes in supply or demand expectations and should continue to be monitored alongside cell prices and vehicle margins.

Risks

• Weekly order data are highly volatile and may be influenced by new model launches, promotions, and seasonal factors, so they cannot alone represent medium- to long-term demand trends.
• Terminal discounts for both new energy vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles remain high, and price competition may pressure profitability for manufacturers and dealers.
• Overall passenger vehicle retail and wholesale volumes are still down year over year, and macro consumption pressure may limit the extent of industry demand recovery.
• Although falling battery-grade lithium carbonate prices help the cost side, they may also reflect changes in supply-demand expectations or inventory pressure in the supply chain.
• The report does not provide stock ratings or target prices, so it cannot be used to directly infer specific stock investment recommendations.

What to watch

• June 23: Li Auto officially launches the facelifted L8.
• June 23: BYD launches the N8L flash-charging version.
• June 25: Leapmotor begins D99 presales.
• June 28: Nio begins presales of the five-seat ES8.
• July 1: New energy vehicle manufacturers release monthly sales.
• July 2: XPeng launches the MONA L03.
• July 10 to 11: CPCA releases wholesale/retail data for the passenger vehicle and new energy vehicle industries and by model segment.
• August 1: New energy vehicle manufacturers release monthly sales.