China’s high-frequency economic indicators show improving real estate, divergent travel, and energy price shocks coexisting

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs’ weekly high-frequency tracker for China economic activity and policy, covering four groups of indicators: consumption and travel, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy. The report emphasizes the impact of energy supply shocks on China’s economy, and therefore is updated at a higher frequency to observe marginal changes in real estate transactions, transportation activity, port activity, energy prices, and macro policy announcements.

Core views

The core picture in the report is: real estate transactions improved at the margin, with the secondary market outperforming the primary market; travel activity was mixed, with the number of domestic flights below last year and cancellation rates sharply higher, although the urban congestion index was only slightly below last year; energy and some chemical prices rose significantly after March, potentially affecting corporate margins and household consumption through cost pressures; port container throughput weakened on a week-over-week basis but remained above the same period last year, indicating that trade activity still has some support.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses high-frequency time-series comparisons, contrasting 2026 indicators with comparable periods in 2025 and 2019, and applies 7-day moving averages, year-over-year changes, price indices, and seasonally adjusted indices to identify short-term changes in economic activity. The focus is not on forecasting a single asset price, but on cross-checking China’s macro momentum, travel recovery, property transactions, and cost pressures through multiple activity indicators.

Methodology notes

• Macro High-Frequency TrackingHigh-Frequency Economic Activity Indicators

  Weekly Tracking

  Observe short-term changes in China’s economic activity through indicators such as real estate transactions, flights, congestion, port throughput, energy, and commodity prices.

• Time-Series ComparisonYear-over-Year and Historical-Year Comparison

  Year-over-Year Change

  Multiple charts compare 2026 data with 2025, 2019, or 2024 to distinguish seasonality from genuine changes in activity.

• Data Smoothing7-Day Moving Average

  Short-Term Noise Filtering

  Indicators such as real estate transactions and urban congestion use a 7-day moving average to reduce daily volatility and holiday distortions.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China Macro Economy

  Core tracking object

  Strengths

  Some indicators, including real estate transactions and port throughput, improved, showing that economic activity is not weakening in a one-directional manner.

  Weaknesses

  Travel indicators are mixed, with flight volumes below last year and cancellation rates rising, indicating disruption in service activity.

  Comparison

  In 2026, multiple indicators are compared with the same period in 2025, with real estate transactions outperforming last year and flight activity weaker than last year.

  Risks

  Energy price shocks, travel disruptions, and insufficient policy transmission could weigh on short-term growth momentum.

• China Real Estate Market

  An important subcomponent of macro activity

  Strengths

  Primary-home sales turned positive year over year, and used-home sales grew even more strongly.

  Weaknesses

  Primary-home sales are still below 2019 levels, suggesting that the long-term recovery remains incomplete.

  Comparison

  Used-home sales increased 25.2% from the same period in 2025, stronger than the roughly 6.9% year-over-year gain in primary-home sales.

  Risks

  If the sales recovery cannot be sustained, it may weaken investment along the property chain and household confidence.

• Transportation and Consumer Activity

  A proxy for consumer and service-sector momentum

  Strengths

  The urban congestion index recovered from the February low and was only slightly below last year’s level in mid-May.

  Weaknesses

  Domestic passenger flights declined year over year, and cancellation rates were significantly above the same period last year.

  Comparison

  Flights were temporarily stronger than 2024 and 2025 in February to March 2026, but turned weaker in mid-May.

  Risks

  If flight disruptions persist, they may affect tourism, business travel, and services consumption.

• Energy and Commodities

  A source of cost and inflation pressure

  Strengths

  Higher prices can support upstream energy and some chemical producers’ revenue.

  Weaknesses

  Rising gasoline, diesel, crude oil, and chemical prices will push up corporate costs and transportation expenses.

  Comparison

  Price indices for sulfuric acid, polypropylene, methanol, and others rose markedly after March, with sulfuric acid showing the most pronounced increase.

  Risks

  Imported price shocks may compress downstream margins and affect the policy balance between growth and inflation.

Key data

• Primary-home sales in 30 citiesAbout 6.9% YoY growth on May 14Sales volume increased from the previous week and was above the same period last year, but remained below 2019 levels.
• Used-home sales in 16 citiesAbout 25.2% YoY growth on May 14Used-home sales recovered from the February low and were roughly in the 300,000 to 360,000 square meter range from April to May.
• Domestic passenger flightsDown 12.7% from the same period in 2025 on May 14Flights were once above 2024 and 2025 levels in February to March 2026, but weakened noticeably in mid-May.
• Domestic flight cancellation rateAbout 28.5% on May 14The cancellation rate was about 12.9 percentage points higher than the same period in 2025, indicating greater travel disruption.
• Traffic congestion index in major citiesDown 0.8% YoY on May 13The congestion index recovered after the February low, but it was still slightly below last year’s level in mid-May.
• China gasoline and diesel retail pricesSignificantly raised from March to MayGasoline rose to about 10,800 to 11,000 yuan per ton, and diesel rose to about 9,700 to 9,800 yuan per ton, lagging Brent fluctuations.
• Sulfuric acid price indexRose to about 275 in MayThe index, with 2025 as 100, shows sulfuric acid recorded the largest increase after March.
• Port container throughputDown slightly over the past week but still above the same period last yearOfficial port throughput data still indicate some resilience in trade-related activity.

Impact & implications

The implications of these high-frequency indicators for China’s macro outlook are: the property transaction side has shown some repair, especially with stronger used-home sales; however, household travel and transportation activity have not improved in a unified way, and lower flight volumes plus higher cancellation rates may weigh on services consumption readings. Rising energy and chemical prices imply stronger imported cost pressures, which may affect corporate margins, transportation costs, and some downstream industries. On the policy side, it remains necessary to continue monitoring macro policy announcements since March and whether they can translate into sustained improvement in real estate, consumption, investment, and trade activity.

Risks

• Energy supply shocks continue to push up crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and chemical prices, increasing cost pressures.
• High domestic flight cancellation rates and falling flight volumes may drag on travel and services consumption.
• The improvement in real estate transactions may still be only a short-term fluctuation and has not yet proven to be a sustainable recovery.
• High-frequency indicators are affected by holidays, weather, policy timing, and statistical conventions, so single-week data should not be extrapolated too aggressively.
• The report discloses that some information is based on public sources and may be updated at any time, and it does not constitute personalized investment advice.

What to watch

• Whether primary and secondary home sales can continue to stay above last year in the coming weeks.
• Whether domestic flight volumes recover and whether cancellation rates fall from the mid-May high.
• Whether the traffic congestion index in major cities can rise above the same period last year again.
• Whether Brent crude, gasoline and diesel, and major chemical prices continue to rise and pass through downstream.
• Whether official port container throughput remains above the same period last year.
• Whether macro policy announcements since March lead to sustained improvement in consumption, investment, and property-chain indicators.