China Sportswear's Online Recovery Cooled in July, While Domestic and Select International Brands Continued to Outperform

Overview

The report tracks end-market online sportswear GMV on Taobao, Tmall, and Douyin in Mainland China. Industry performance weakened in July 2026 versus May–June, indicating that the recovery remains unsteady. Domestic leaders and select international brands such as Adidas performed better, but previously high-growth categories such as outdoor and running are normalizing, while discounting and competitive pressures remain the primary constraints.

Core views

China sportswear online sales weakened in July 2026 versus May–June, reducing the sustainability of the previous rebound. Deutsche Bank believes the industry recovery remains fragile amid subdued consumer sentiment and a challenging macroeconomic environment. Both online and offline discounts remain high, with brands continuing to rely on promotions to support traffic and conversion. Performance divergence is pronounced, with domestic brands such as Anta and select international brands such as Adidas relatively outperforming. The tracking data represents end-market online GMV after returns and refunds, but platform-wide or store-wide subsidies on Taobao and Tmall are not included, and these sales figures are not equivalent to brand revenue. The previously fast-growing outdoor and running categories normalized further. Outdoor brands grew 9% year over year in July, significantly below 25% in May–June; running brands grew 14%, also below the previous 18%. The report attributes the slowdown to high comparison bases following years of rapid expansion and intensifying competition, citing Li Ning management's comments regarding fierce competition in running shoes. Its assessment is that if the market cannot develop another large and fast-growing new category, weak consumption and intensified competition may continue to constrain industry growth. Domestic leaders remained resilient overall. Anta's core brand online sales growth accelerated to 26% year over year in July, above 20% in May–June and 8% in April, extending the strong recovery from weak performance in the second half of 2025. The report believes Anta's execution capabilities and brand portfolio are relatively outstanding within the industry and therefore maintains its Buy rating. Li Ning grew 17% year over year in July, slowing from 26% in May–June but remaining significantly better than the 2% decline in April. This indicates that online sales have recovered from the April low, but not enough to dispel concerns about weak offline traffic, intensified competition, and deeper discounting. Running-shoe products such as Feidian 6 and Red Hare 9 previously supported growth, but the running category has entered a normalization phase after rapid penetration over the past two years. Anta's brand portfolio also showed divergence. Fila grew 13% year over year in July, below 20% in May–June and 27% in April, but maintained positive growth despite a high base and sizable scale. The report considers it the most resilient compared with other sports fashion brands. Kolon's growth accelerated to 79% from 71% in May–June, retaining its position as one of the strongest-performing brands in China's outdoor market. Descente rebounded to 44% from 1% in May–June, close to but still below 47% in April. This suggests the previous sharp slowdown may not represent sustained deterioration, although the high base makes it difficult to maintain the strong growth seen at the beginning of the year. International-brand performance was more uneven. Adidas grew 42% year over year in China in July, above 35% in May–June. The report believes its recent execution has been stronger and that it benefits from World Cup-related exposure, placing it in a more favorable position than other international brands. Nike's growth over the same period slowed to 5% from 25%. It had previously performed poorly in China, and its recovery still requires close monitoring. Puma accelerated to 31% from 22%, while Skechers improved to 13% growth from a 3% decline. The report also notes that Nike plans to terminate online franchise distribution agreements in 2027, and its online distributors may increase discounting in the fourth quarter of 2026, potentially affecting international brands positioned in similar price bands. The Amer brand portfolio and running brands likewise showed cooling after high growth. Arc'teryx grew 14% year over year in July, broadly in line with 12% in May–June but far below 311% in April. Salomon grew 26%, below 56% in May–June and 145% in April. Xtep-owned Saucony remained down 28% year over year. Although this narrowed from the 55% decline in May–June, it was worse than the 26% decline in April, reflecting intensifying running-shoe competition from both domestic and international brands. Among other international running-shoe brands, Hoka grew 41%, Asics 32%, On 10%, and Mizuno was broadly flat with 1% growth. Leading brands continued to grow, but overall momentum slowed versus May–June. Lululemon's sales in China remained weak, declining 23% year over year in July, with the decline widening further from 16% in May–June. This indicates continued weak brand momentum and underscores risks in China's yoga category. Considering the outdoor, running, and yoga categories and data for major brands, the report's core conclusion is that the industry has not entered a broad-based recovery. Growth is normalizing in previously high-growth categories, competition and discounting continue to weigh on the industry, and domestic leaders with stronger execution and more robust brand portfolios, along with a small number of international brands, can still achieve relative advantages.

Analysis framework

The report first assesses overall industry conditions using monthly end-market GMV from Taobao, Tmall, and Douyin, then compares July year-over-year growth with April and May–June across categories such as outdoor, running, and sports fashion. It subsequently analyzes domestic brands, international brands, and the Anta and Amer brand portfolios individually, linking sales momentum to high comparison bases, consumer sentiment, competition, discounting, brand execution, and distribution arrangements. Finally, it provides valuation observations through a comparable-company valuation table and 12-month rolling P/E charts.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis Framework

  Monthly Online End-Market GMV Tracking

  The report aggregates brand sales on Taobao, Tmall, and Douyin in Mainland China and uses end-market GMV net of returns and refunds to observe actual sell-through. Platform-wide or store-wide subsidies on Taobao and Tmall are excluded, and GMV cannot be directly equated with brand revenue.

• Cycle and Business Conditions FrameworkBusiness Cycle Inflection Analysis

  Comparison of Year-over-Year Growth and Periodic Momentum

  The report compares July's year-over-year growth with April and May–June to assess whether the previous rebound continued and identify whether high-growth categories such as outdoor and running are entering a normalization phase.

• Valuation MethodP/E and PEG Valuation

  Comparable-Company Valuation and 12-Month Rolling P/E

  The report includes a comparable-company valuation table and 12-month rolling P/E charts to examine relative valuations and historical valuation changes among relevant companies, but the main text does not provide specific valuation multiples or a resulting target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Anta

  The core brand's online sales grew 26% year over year in July, and the report maintained its Buy rating.

  Strengths

  Relatively outstanding execution capabilities and brand portfolio, with continuous improvement in core-brand growth; Fila, Kolon, and Descente provide multi-brand support.

  Weaknesses

  Growth diverged within the portfolio, with Fila slowing versus April and May–June.

  Comparison

  The report identifies Anta's core brand as one of the better-positioned domestic brands.

  Risks

  Weak industry consumption, heavy discounting, intensified competition, and normalization of outdoor-category growth.

• Li Ning

  Online sales grew 17% year over year in July, slowing from May–June but significantly better than the 2% decline in April.

  Strengths

  Running-shoe products such as Feidian 6 and Red Hare 9 previously supported growth, and online sales have recovered from the April low.

  Weaknesses

  Offline traffic is weak, discounting has deepened, and July's data has not fully dispelled market concerns.

  Comparison

  It remains relatively resilient among domestic brands, but July's growth rate and direction of change were weaker than Anta's core brand.

  Risks

  Fierce running-shoe competition and category normalization following rapid penetration over the past two years.

• Adidas

  China online sales grew 42% year over year in July, with momentum strengthening further versus May–June.

  Strengths

  Strong recent execution and exposure related to the World Cup.

  Comparison

  The report believes it is in a more favorable position than Nike.

  Risks

  Increased discounting by Nike distributors may affect international brands in similar price bands.

• Nike

  China online-sales growth slowed from 25% in May–June to 5% in July, indicating a significant deceleration in the recovery.

  Weaknesses

  It previously performed poorly in China, and July's momentum was weaker than Adidas, Puma, and Skechers.

  Comparison

  July's growth significantly lagged Adidas's 42%.

  Risks

  In preparation for terminating online franchise distribution agreements in 2027, distributors may increase discounting in the fourth quarter of 2026.

• Puma, Skechers

  Puma grew 31% year over year in July, while Skechers improved to 13% growth from a 3% decline in May–June.

  Strengths

  Both recorded improved growth in July versus May–June.

  Comparison

  They performed better than Nike, which grew only 5% in July, but below Adidas, which grew 42%.

  Risks

  A potential escalation in Nike's discounting may affect similar price bands.

• Amer Brand Portfolio: Arc'teryx, Salomon

  Both brands continued to grow in July but cooled significantly from the high-growth phase in April.

  Strengths

  Arc'teryx and Salomon grew 14% and 26% year over year in July, respectively.

  Weaknesses

  Arc'teryx's growth was far below 311% in April, while Salomon also slowed significantly from 145% in April and 56% in May–June.

  Comparison

  July growth momentum was weaker than Kolon and Descente.

  Risks

  Growth normalization and high-base pressure in the outdoor and running categories after years of expansion.

• Xtep-owned Saucony

  Online sales declined 28% year over year in July. Although this improved from the 55% decline in May–June, sales remained in contraction.

  Strengths

  The decline narrowed versus May–June.

  Weaknesses

  July's performance remained weaker than the 26% decline in April.

  Comparison

  It significantly lagged Hoka, Asics, On, and Mizuno, which continued to record growth.

  Risks

  Fierce competition from domestic and international brands and normalization following rapid penetration of the running category.

• Lululemon

  China online sales declined 23% year over year in July, deepening the weakness.

  Weaknesses

  The decline widened from 16% in May–June, indicating persistently weak brand momentum.

  Comparison

  It performed weakly among the major sports and sports fashion brands tracked in the report.

  Risks

  Risks to demand and growth momentum in China's yoga category.

Key data

• Outdoor Brand Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +9%May–June 2026 YoY +25%, indicating significant growth normalization
• Running Brand Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +14%May–June 2026 YoY +18%
• Anta Core Brand Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +26%+20% in May–June and +8% in April
• Li Ning Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +17%+26% in May–June and -2% in April
• Fila Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +13%+20% in May–June and +27% in April
• Kolon Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +79%+71% in May–June
• Descente Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +44%+1% in May–June and +47% in April
• Adidas China Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +42%+35% in May–June
• Nike China Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +5%+25% in May–June, indicating a significant growth slowdown
• Puma Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +31%+22% in May–June
• Skechers Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +13%-3% in May–June
• Arc'teryx Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +14%+12% in May–June and +311% in April
• Salomon Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +26%+56% in May–June and +145% in April
• Saucony Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY -28%-55% in May–June and -26% in April
• Hoka Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +41%Continued to maintain relatively rapid growth among international running-shoe brands
• Asics Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +32%Continued to grow among international running-shoe brands
• On Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +10%Growth slowed
• Mizuno Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY +1%Sales were broadly flat
• Lululemon China Online SalesJuly 2026 YoY -23%-16% in May–June, with the decline widening further

Impact & implications

The report believes July's data does not support the view that the industry has entered a stable, broad-based recovery. Outdoor and running categories slowed after years of expansion, and without a new large-scale, high-growth category, industry growth may continue to be constrained by weak consumption, intensifying competition, and heavy discounting. The impact at the brand level is clearly divergent: Anta and parts of its brand portfolio, as well as Adidas, enjoy relative advantages through execution and brand strength, while Nike, Saucony, and Lululemon continue to face recovery or category-momentum issues. Nike's distribution-system adjustment could also intensify price competition among international brands in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Risks

• Subdued consumer sentiment and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop may keep the industry recovery fragile.
• Online and offline discounts remain high, and brands' reliance on promotions may intensify price competition.
• Outdoor and running categories face high comparison bases and growth normalization after years of rapid expansion.
• Nike distributors may increase discounting in the fourth quarter of 2026 and affect international brands in similar price bands.
• Further deterioration in Lululemon's sales indicates growth risks in China's yoga category.

What to watch

• Closely monitor whether Nike's online-sales recovery in China can reaccelerate.
• Track changes in discounting by Nike's online distributors in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the impact on other international brands.