Data center power is transitioning progressively toward 800V DC/SST, with overseas prefabrication and supply tightness supporting margin premiums

Overview

This report summarizes key points from Goldman Sachs' 2026 AIDC + Power Supply Virtual Corporate Day across six data center power supply chain companies. The core conclusion is that demand for power equipment in AIDC remains robust, traditional UPS order visibility is high in markets such as North America and Europe, and at the same time 800V DC, HVDC, and SST architectures are progressing, but in 2026 the year is likely still mainly characterized by sample validation and small-batch shipments. Industry competition has intensified noticeably since 2025, with participants coming from adjacent power electronics fields including UPS, server PSU, energy storage PCS, transformers, protection relays, and EV charging.

Core views

The report puts forward four themes: first, UPS demand remains solid, 500-600kW and MW-scale systems continue to evolve, and the 800V DC/SST transition will be incremental rather than abrupt; second, more entrants are joining the 800V DC/SST track, and market share conclusions still depend on supply-chain progress in 2H26; third, prefabricated power modules are favored by project owners and CSPs because they shorten overseas delivery and installation cycles, and may materially raise value per watt and overall profitability; fourth, domestic and overseas margins diverge, with domestic margins pressured by price competition and cost pressure, while overseas—especially North America—can more easily sustain cost-plus pricing due to tighter supply.

Analysis framework

The report combines virtual corporate day minutes, company investment views, target price valuation methodology, and risk warnings to assess the China data center power value chain from technology path, order rhythm, competitive landscape, regional margins, business model, and individual stock valuation perspectives.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodP/E Target Price Method

  Derive a 12-month target price using forward P/E multiples and discounting by cost of equity

  Kstar's 12-month target price of Rmb67.0 is based on a 2028E P/E of 26x and discounted back to 2027E at an 11% CoE; Kehua's target price of Rmb54.0 is based on a 2027E P/E of 30x; Megmeet's target price of Rmb112.0 is based on a 2028E P/E of 32x and discounted back to 2027E at an 11% CoE.

• Industry technology assessmentProgressive 800V DC/SST Commercialization Framework

  Stage-by-stage judgment from samples, customer validation, and small-batch shipments to scale commercialization

  Most interviewed companies believe 800V architecture is still in sample, customer validation, or small-batch shipment stages in 2026; large-scale SST deployment requires long-term reliability validation and supply-chain sufficiency in real data center operating environments.

• Market structure analysisDomestic and Overseas Margin Divergence Framework

  Compare pricing power between CSP-dominated domestic markets and supply-constrained overseas markets

  Domestic CSPs have strong bargaining power, and with rising metal and semiconductor costs, product prices are broadly flat or margins are under pressure; overseas, especially in the United States, distribution-system supply shortages make exporters more likely to maintain cost-plus pricing for cost pass-through.

• Goldman Sachs internal frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compare stocks using the four attributes Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated

  Disclosed materials state that GS Factor Profile uses standardized percentiles of sales, EBITDA, and EPS growth, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, and valuation metrics such as P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA to provide investment context versus the market and peers.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Shenzhen Kstar Science & Tech (002518.SZ)

  Covered company, Buy, one of the report's preferred stock calls

  Strengths

  Relatively strong overseas exposure, with high visibility of high-power UPS ODM orders in Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America; advancing 2.4MW integrated prefabricated containers and 800V DC products; using a colo + ODM strategy to bypass part of AVL restrictions.

  Weaknesses

  800V DC products still need to convert progressively from samples and customer validation to small-batch orders; domestic market still faces price competition.

  Comparison

  Compared with Kehua, Kstar has higher 800V ODM visibility in North America and overseas, with stronger margin and return resilience.

  Risks

  Overseas ODM order growth below expectation, slower-than-expected launches of new products such as 800V DC, and lower-than-expected growth and margins in overseas ESS.

• Kehua Data Co. (002335.SZ)

  Covered company, Neutral

  Strengths

  Strong foundation in the China UPS market, serves clients including Tencent, and has won orders for Alibaba power and liquid-cooling products; solid demand backdrop in Southeast Asia, with a 2026 regional order growth target of at least Rmb100mn.

  Weaknesses

  Gross margins in domestic data center, IDC services, and intelligent power businesses face pressure from strong CSP bargaining power and weak infrastructure capex; North America expansion is unlikely to make significant progress in the near term.

  Comparison

  Compared with Kstar, Kehua has deeper domestic exposure and a slower expansion pace in overseas markets, especially in the United States, resulting in a more balanced risk-return profile.

  Risks

  The speed of expansion in overseas markets, especially the United States, volatility in domestic hyperscaler capex, and shifts in domestic data center and ESS product price competition.

• Megmeet (002851.SZ)

  Covered company, Neutral

  Strengths

  Shifted from an automation and controls supplier to a global AI server PSU player and has obtained mass-production orders for 5.5kW PSU while joining the NVIDIA MGX ecosystem.

  Weaknesses

  The high-efficiency product lineup still trails top-tier peers such as Delta Electronics; valuation already reflects relatively high earnings-growth expectations.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional UPS/distribution vendors, Megmeet is more concentrated in server PSU and AI server supply chain positioning, but next-generation 800V competition and SST adoption paths are more uncertain.

  Risks

  Speed of gaining PSU share in the NVIDIA ecosystem, ASIC hardware supply-chain validation progress, mass-production execution, 800V DC R&D cycle, and sustainability of global AI capex.

• Jinpan (688676.SS)

  Conference participant, NC

  Strengths

  1Q26 data center power revenue grew more than 100% year-over-year, with new orders above Rmb1.7bn; strong overseas, especially North American, demand with advantages in cost-plus pricing and shorter delivery cycles; 10kV/2.4MW SST prototypes have been shipped to overseas customers' data centers for testing.

  Weaknesses

  SST remains in real-environment testing and needs further validation before large-scale application; pre-fabricated UPS/HVDC route still requires conversion into customer orders.

  Comparison

  Sits out in transformer and integrated power solution strength and overseas AIDC orders, and benefits more from North American distribution equipment shortages than pure UPS vendors.

  Risks

  Sustained U.S. order flow, SST test outcomes, overseas delivery execution, and raw-material cost volatility.

• Sinexcel (300693.SZ)

  Conference participant, NC

  Strengths

  Leveraging high-voltage DC EV charging and APF/SVG power quality technology reserves, it is developing 400V and 800V HVDC and can provide modules or complete systems to overseas power solution integrators.

  Weaknesses

  As a relatively new entrant in data center applications, it needs to build customer validation, channel, and integration capabilities; competitive intensity in the sector has clearly increased.

  Comparison

  The strategy is more oriented toward becoming a cost-effective HVDC supply-chain partner for overseas integrators rather than building a full channel to CSPs directly.

  Risks

  Competition among integrators, domestic peers fighting for supply share, speed of HVDC solution adoption, and 2H26 product release pace.

• Honor Electronic (300870.SZ)

  Conference participant, NC

  Strengths

  High-power server PSU shipments in China are recovering around 2Q26; Google-related projects are in 6-12 months of R&D and validation, and Vietnam capacity buildout is progressing; early cooperation or technical exchanges exist with AMD, Juniper, Inventec, and Compal.

  Weaknesses

  Overseas collaborative business volume remains small and share allocation is still unclear; customer demand for next-generation 8kW-18kW PSU has not yet been clearly demonstrated.

  Comparison

  More directly exposed to server PSU and AI server power upgrades than to power-distribution systems and prefabricated enclosures.

  Risks

  Customer validation failure, Vietnam capacity ramp pace, share uncertainty, and delayed commercialization timing for 800V architecture.

• Sifang (601126.SS)

  Conference participant, NC

  Strengths

  Has experience in medium-voltage DC project development, simulation, engineering, and supply-chain integration; developing 13.8kV and 34.5kV SST products to serve North America's high-power demand.

  Weaknesses

  10kV SST is mostly aimed at domestic demand, with no visible scale demand in the short term; long-cycle verification of SST long-term reliability in real data center continuous operation is still needed.

  Comparison

  Compared with UPS/HVDC vendors, Sifang is more focused on SST and medium-voltage DC engineering capabilities.

  Risks

  Reliability verification, customer test progress, 2027 small-batch delivery of 13.8kV products, and scale-up timing.

Key data

• Corporate day date and scopeMay 6-8, 2026, 6 companiesThe meeting covered the data center power supply chain, with themes including 800V DC/SST, competitive landscape, prefabrication trend, and domestic versus overseas margin divergence.
• Traditional UPS order visibilitySome global vendors have backlog orders extending into 2028This indicates that current AC UPS solutions still meet most deployment needs, and HVDC/800V conversion will happen progressively.
• 800V DC commercialization paceIn 2026, multiple cases remain at sample, customer validation, or small-batch stageKstar targets sample launch of 800V DC power modules in 2Q26, with potential small-batch shipments in overseas markets possibly from 3Q26 onward.
• SST potential marketSST penetration in North America could reach 30%-40% by 2030, with market size possibly exceeding Rmb100bnThis assumption comes from some industry participant estimates, with ASP assumed at Rmb3-4/W; long-term reliability validation remains a core bottleneck.
• Prefabrication value upliftValue per watt can be up to about three times that of standalone UPS systemsPrefabricated power modules integrating transformers, medium-voltage switchgear, UPS/HVDC, and feeder systems help shorten overseas installation cycles.
• Southeast Asia incremental ordersSome vendors are expected to secure Rmb100mn-level incremental orders in 2026Driven by expansion of Chinese cloud providers and colocation operators in Southeast Asia.
• Jinpan AIDC orders1Q26 new data center power orders up 278% year-over-year, above Rmb1.7bnOverseas demand is mainly from North America, contributing about Rmb1.5bn.
• Kstar target priceRmb67.0, BuyBased on a 2028E P/E of 26x and discounted back to 2027E at an 11% CoE.
• Kehua target priceRmb54.0, NeutralBased on a 2027E P/E of 30x; domestic margins remain pressured, and short-term visibility for North America expansion is limited.
• Megmeet target priceRmb112.0, NeutralBased on a 2028E P/E of 32x and discounted back to 2027E at an 11% CoE; current valuation already reflects high growth expectations.

Impact & implications

For investors, the opportunity in data center power comes not only from AI compute capex growth, but also from power-architecture upgrades, overseas supply tightness, and higher value creation through prefabrication. Companies with stronger overseas exposure, ODM collaboration ability, cost-plus pricing power, and integrated prefabrication solutions are more likely to benefit, while those with higher domestic revenue share and major CSP customers with strong bargaining power may still face margin pressure. Technically, 800V DC and SST are medium- to long-term directions, but in the short term, attention should focus on actual orders, customer validation, reliability, and supply-chain maturity rather than valuation narratives alone.

Risks

• 800V DC and SST commercialization could be slower than expected, with sample validation or small-batch shipments failing to convert to scale orders.
• Insufficient long-term reliability validation of SST in real data center environments affects customer adoption.
• Shortage of critical components or constraints on key devices such as SiC increase cost and delivery risk.
• Strong domestic CSP bargaining power, combined with rising metal and semiconductor costs, keeps domestic margins under pressure.
• Overseas order growth in North America or Southeast Asia could come in below expectations, or geopolitical and AVL constraints could limit Chinese suppliers' supply-chain access.
• If prefabricated product adoption is slower than expected, higher value-per-watt and margin expansion may not be realized.
• AI capex growth could slow, or GPU/ASIC supply recovery may disappoint, weakening data center build-out demand.
• Increasing entrants could intensify competition across HVDC, 800V DC, SST, and server PSU.

What to watch

• 2H26 customer validation, small-batch deliveries, and order announcements for 800V DC, HVDC, and SST.
• Execution pace of Kstar's high-power UPS ODM orders in Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America, and conversion of 2.4MW prefabricated power container orders.
• Progress on Kehua's regional Rmb100mn order growth target in Southeast Asia and breakthrough progress with U.S. customers.
• Megmeet execution on NVIDIA MGX, ASIC supply chain, and yield in 5.5kW PSU mass production.
• Sustainability of Jinpan's overseas AIDC orders, SST overseas test results, and prefabricated module orders.
• Sifang's 13.8kV SST test performance, small-batch deliveries in 2027, and potential scale-up progress.
• Domestic CSP price competition, trends in metal and semiconductor costs, and vendors' ability to pass through costs.
• Whether overseas power-distribution equipment supply gaps persist and whether cost-plus pricing can be sustained.