Earnings Beat Offsets Slight Growth Shortfall; DoorDash Bull Case Continues

Overview

Bernstein believes DoorDash’s 2Q26 presented a combination opposite to what the market typically expects: the revenue side was slightly short of buyside expectations, yet did not suffer meaningful negative pricing, while profitability exceeded expectations during ongoing investment and technology platform rebuilding. Demand trends remain healthy, U.S. restaurant business accelerated, average order value and take rate improved, and third-quarter guidance was sufficient to sustain the bull case. Longer term, a large addressable market, strengthening DashPass membership habits, and improving unit economics in new businesses and international markets are expected to lift profitability over the next two to three years.

Core views

Key conclusions include: first, GOV continues to compound rapidly within a large market opportunity, with second-quarter organic GOV growth of 23%; although slightly below the model, the trend was broadly stable excluding FX impact. Second, the DashPass membership flywheel is strengthening, with U.S. paid member additions over the past 12 months exceeding those of the prior 24 months; while membership creates some short-term margin trade-off, it improves retention, order frequency, and gross profit per monthly active user. Third, gross margin is showing operating leverage driven by improvements in take rate and cost of revenue, and unit economics progress in new businesses and international markets could become a medium-term driver of earnings upside. Fourth, 2027 EBITDA remains the focal point of market debate, with Bernstein currently using USD 5B and USD 6.6B as forecast anchors for 2027 and 2028, respectively.

Analysis framework

The report compares second-quarter actual results with Bernstein forecasts and consensus expectations, and evaluates management’s third-quarter guidance. It then breaks down operating drivers through GOV, order volume, average order value, take rate, gross margin, R&D expense, and DashPass penetration, while using membership cohort data to observe retention and unit economics. Finally, it uses a blended valuation approach with 50% weighting each for NTM EV/EBITDA and DCF to determine the target price, while updating medium- to long-term earnings forecasts.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsNTM EV/EBITDA

  Next twelve months enterprise value multiple valuation

  Applies a 25x NTM EV/EBITDA multiple and assigns it a 50% weight in the target valuation to reflect DoorDash’s comparable-company valuation and historical levels as a real-life services platform.

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  DCF accounts for 50% of the target valuation, using an 11% weighted average cost of capital and a 3% terminal growth rate, treating stock-based compensation as a cash expense and calculating the target price on a fully diluted basis.

• Operating analysisMembership cohort analysis

  DashPass penetration and user economics analysis

  Observes the relationship between DashPass penetration and order frequency, retention, GOV, and adjusted gross profit per monthly active user through U.S. user cohorts.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• DoorDash Inc (DASH.US)

  Core covered company

  Strengths

  U.S. restaurant business is accelerating, DashPass improves retention and order frequency, take rate and cost of revenue improvements drive gross margin leverage, and new categories and international markets have medium-term earnings potential.

  Weaknesses

  GOV growth was slightly below expectations, membership benefits create a short-term margin trade-off, and technology platform rebuilding keeps R&D expense elevated.

  Comparison

  Compared with Uber’s accelerating organic growth, DoorDash’s overall GOV performance was slightly weaker, but acceleration in the U.S. restaurant business and stronger profitability are more important for valuation.

  Risks

  Reinvestment leading to profit below expectations, macro demand slowdown, customer churn, competitive pricing, regulatory changes, and execution risks in international and new-category expansion.

Key data

• 2Q26 organic GOV growth23%About 1 percentage point below Bernstein’s model, but the trend was broadly stable excluding FX impact.
• 2Q26 organic order growth17%In line with expectations, with more items per order driving average order value and take rate higher.
• 2Q26 adjusted EBITDAUSD 914MExceeded expectations, as improved gross margin leverage offset part of the impact from higher R&D investment.
• 3Q26 GOV guidanceUSD 33B–34BThe report believes this range still has upside relative to sell-side expectations.
• 3Q26 adjusted EBITDA guidanceUSD 950M–1,100MAbove Bernstein’s prior expectation, supporting the view that quarterly EBITDA is approaching USD 1B.
• 2027 adjusted EBITDA forecast anchorUSD 5BStill a key variable in the market’s bull-bear debate.
• 2028 adjusted EBITDA forecast anchorUSD 6.6BReflects expectations for continued improvement in unit economics in new businesses and international markets.
• Model adjustmentGOV unchanged, EBITDA raised by about 2%F26E adjusted EPS was raised from USD 5.50 to USD 5.70, and F27E from USD 7.87 to USD 8.02.
• Target priceUSD 270.00Represents about 30% potential upside versus the closing price of USD 207.27.

Impact & implications

The results combination reinforced market confidence in DoorDash’s earnings quality: even amid technology rebuilding, R&D investment, and long-term reinvestment, the company still delivered better-than-expected EBITDA and gross margin improvement. If DashPass continues to increase user stickiness, while U.S. restaurant, new categories, and international businesses maintain growth and improve unit economics, profit growth could outpace GOV growth. However, the high valuation means the stock price is sensitive to the delivery of 2027 EBITDA, R&D expense leverage, and the competitive environment.

Risks

• The company may increase long-term reinvestment, causing EBITDA to fall below consensus expectations.
• The macro environment and post-pandemic consumption changes could slow growth, make customer acquisition more difficult, or reduce order frequency among existing users.
• Expansion in new business categories and international markets may be more challenging than expected, weighing on growth or profitability.
• Regulatory changes such as driver classification and delivery commission caps may increase costs and pressure valuation.
• Competition in the delivery industry is intense, and irrational pricing, subsidies, or market share gains by competitors could cause low profitability, losses, or exits from certain markets.
• If R&D and technology platform rebuilding expenses lack operating leverage for an extended period, margin improvement may be limited.
• Investor expectations and valuation are high, so even a small miss in operating metrics could trigger significant stock price volatility.

What to watch

• Whether 2027 adjusted EBITDA can reach around USD 5B.
• GOV and order growth in subsequent quarters, especially the gap versus Uber’s organic growth.
• Whether the acceleration trend in the U.S. restaurant business can continue.
• DashPass paid member growth, penetration, retention, and gross profit per monthly active user.
• Unit economics improvement in grocery and retail, other new categories, and international markets.
• When R&D expense and technology platform rebuilding costs begin to show operating leverage.
• The magnitude of continued improvement in take rate, cost of revenue, and adjusted gross margin.
• Changes in driver classification, delivery commission caps, and other regulatory policies.