Goldman Sachs maintains Atour at Buy: RevPar and hotel openings on track, with upside risk to retail revenue guidance

Overview

This report summarizes Goldman Sachs' key views following its meeting with Atour's management at the APAC Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day on June 29. Management stated that despite higher airfares, weak air travel demand, and pressured Chinese consumer sentiment, Atour's RevPar performance remained relatively stable, hotel opening progress was in line with the full-year target, and the retail business continued to grow strongly. Goldman Sachs therefore reiterated its Buy rating on Atour Lifestyle Holdings.

Core views

The core views include: first, the hotel business remains resilient despite macroeconomic headwinds; quarter-to-date RevPar in 2Q26 is slightly below the +2% year-on-year level in 1Q26, but sequential recovery has emerged since June; second, the FY26 target of 480-490 new hotel openings remains on track, while the pace of closures is expected to slow from 2Q onward; third, retail sales momentum is strong, with online GMV up +88% year on year in April-May, potentially creating upside risk to the FY26 retail revenue growth guidance of +30-35%; fourth, following the share price correction, current valuation is near the low end, while management's openness to higher dividends and share repurchases supports Goldman Sachs' positive view.

Analysis framework

The report is primarily based on management discussions, company operating metrics, third-party retail GMV tracking, weekly tracking of domestic hotel supply and RevPar, air passenger traffic and airfare indicators, combined with a SOTP valuation approach to assess the target price.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsSOTP

  Sum-of-the-parts valuation

  Goldman Sachs derives its target price using a SOTP methodology, valuing the core business at 14x FY26E EV/EBITDA and including other investments at book value.

• factor_profileGS Factor Profile

  Comparison of growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles

  GS Factor Profile compares the stock with the broader market and industry peers using metrics including sales, EBITDA and EPS growth, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA.

• event_analysisManagement meeting read-through

  Using management discussions to validate operating trends

  The report cross-validates management's comments on RevPar, hotel openings, franchisee mix, retail categories, and shareholder returns against Goldman Sachs' tracking data.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT.O)

  Research subject

  Strengths

  Relatively resilient RevPar, FY26 hotel opening target progressing as planned, increased contribution from existing franchisees, strong retail GMV growth, and potential for higher shareholder returns.

  Weaknesses

  Business travel demand remains soft, with approximately 70% of room bookings related to business travel; midscale expansion may dilute RevPar.

  Comparison

  Compared with certain travel and consumer stocks, Atour has lower reliance on OTA channels, while its retail business provides an incremental source of growth beyond the core hotel business.

  Risks

  Hotel openings below expectations, excessive industry supply growth, weak recovery in business travel, and retail market competition causing revenue and earnings volatility.

• Atour Retail Business

  Growth driver

  Strengths

  The pillow category continues to grow 50-60% year on year, quilts became a hot-selling product during the 618 shopping festival, and new categories such as loungewear and bed skirts have been added.

  Weaknesses

  Third-party GMV tracking may historically differ from the company's actual disclosures by 20-30%.

  Comparison

  Retail business growth is significantly higher than the company's FY26 retail revenue growth guidance.

  Risks

  Intense online retail competition, promotions, traffic acquisition, and product life cycles may cause margin volatility.

Key data

• RatingBuyGoldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating on Atour Lifestyle Holdings.
• 12-month target priceUS$52.0The target price is based on SOTP valuation.
• 2Q26 quarter-to-date RevParSlightly below +2% year on year in 1Q26Management considers this in line with expectations, with sequential recovery since June.
• FY26 total hotel opening target480-490Management reiterated that the full-year target remains on track.
• FY26 expected total hotel closuresApproximately 80The pace of closures is expected to slow from 2Q compared with 37 closures in 1Q.
• OTA share of bookings20-25%Of this, 60-65% comes from TCOM, indicating Atour has relatively limited reliance on OTA channels.
• Retail revenue growth guidance+30-35%Both management discussions and third-party data indicate upside risk.
• Year-on-year retail GMV growth in April-May+88%Goldman Sachs' monthly GMV tracking shows further acceleration from +77% in 1Q26.
• Expected retail EBIT margin15-16%This is above 13% in the prior year, and management stated that it has not increased promotions or price discounts.
• Current valuation8x FY26E EV/EBITDA, 14x P/E, 6.4% dividend yieldGoldman Sachs believes the share price is near the low end of valuation following the correction.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report implies that Atour is facing short-term disruptions from Chinese consumption and travel data, but its hotel core business has not experienced a significant slowdown in RevPar, hotel openings, or franchisee returns; the retail business may exceed its full-year guidance, driven by new categories; and if the company raises dividends and share repurchases to more than 100% of prior-year earnings, the attractiveness of shareholder returns at the low-end valuation will increase.

Risks

• Hotel unit growth may be slower than expected due to domestic and international brands competing for franchisees.
• Expansion into midscale hotels may dilute RevPar.
• Continued rapid industry supply growth or a persistently weak recovery in business travel could weigh on hotel operating performance.
• Intense retail market competition may increase revenue and earnings volatility.
• Third-party GMV tracking data may differ from the company's actual reports by 20-30%.

What to watch

• Whether sequential RevPar recovery in June and subsequent months can continue.
• Actual execution of the FY26 target of 480-490 new hotels and approximately 80 closures.
• Changes in business travel demand, air passenger traffic, and airfare prices.
• The positioning and hotel opening progress of the newly launched upscale business hotel brand in 2H26.
• The sustainability of sales for new retail categories, particularly quilts, loungewear, and bed skirts.
• Whether the company formally increases dividends or initiates additional share repurchases.