Morgan Stanley adds SpaceX to the Space 60 and redraws the U.S. space value chain

Overview

This report is Morgan Stanley’s thematic mapping of the space technology value chain and an update to the Space 60 list. The report adds SpaceX to the Space 60, along with HawkEye 360, Applied Aerospace & Defense, and Satellogic; it also removes Qorvo, Iridium, Globalstar, and Teck Resources due to pending mergers and acquisitions. The Space 60 is defined as a dynamic, non-exhaustive list of publicly traded companies covering space-economy enablers from upstream raw materials to launch, spacecraft, satellite operations, and services.

Core views

The core view is that investment opportunities in the space economy are not concentrated only in rockets and satellite operators, but are distributed across the full value chain. SpaceX, due to its launch scale, reusable rockets, Starship, Starlink, and potential AI infrastructure business, is seen as the most representative vertically integrated platform; however, its long-term revenue forecasts and capital expenditure requirements also come with significant execution, financing, and regulatory risks. The report also emphasizes the importance of "picks-and-shovels" segments such as critical minerals, specialty alloys, industrial gases, radiation-hardened semiconductors, sensors, valves, pumps, structural components, optical devices, and ground systems.

Analysis framework

The report uses a thematic value-chain mapping approach, breaking the space industry into 7 major categories and listing representative companies in each category that have publicly traded securities, U.S. market relevance, liquidity, and thematic exposure. Constituent selection is not a formal change in investment ratings, but is dynamically adjusted based on factors such as business relevance, market capitalization and trading liquidity, space-related revenue or operational importance, industry subcategory concentration, and corporate actions.

Methodology notes

• Thematic investment frameworkSpace 60 value chain mapping

  space economy value-chain list

  It breaks the space economy into 7 segments—raw materials and mining, specialty materials and alloys, propulsion and fuels, electronics and semiconductors, components and subsystems, spacecraft and launch systems, and satellite operations and services—to identify listed companies exposed to growth in the space industry.

• Valuation and rating referenceMorgan Stanley equity research rating

  ratings, target prices, and risk-reward

  The report cites ratings and target prices from separate coverage reports, for example SpaceX/SPCX.O at Overweight with a $300 target price; HawkEye 360 at Overweight with a $41 target price; and Applied Aerospace & Defense at Equal-weight with a $23 target price.

• Industry supply chain analysiscritical materials and enabling technologies

  critical minerals and aerospace engineering materials

  Through materials and fuels such as rare earths, tungsten, gallium, germanium, copper, aluminum, Inconel, Waspaloy, C-103, CFRP, liquid oxygen, liquid hydrogen, methane, xenon, and krypton, the report illustrates how upstream resources and engineering materials constrain aerospace manufacturing and launch capability.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX.O)

  New addition to the Space 60 and the largest constituent; core platform for launch, Starlink, and potential AI infrastructure

  Strengths

  World’s largest orbital launch service provider; reusable Falcon system; Starship could materially lower cost to orbit; Starlink leads in satellite and user scale.

  Weaknesses

  Long-term revenue and cost assumptions depend on delivery from Starship, Starlink, AI infrastructure, and capital expenditure.

  Comparison

  Compared with single-component suppliers or operators, SpaceX is closer to a vertically integrated platform spanning launch, satellite networks, connectivity, and computing.

  Risks

  Execution risk, financing risk, regulatory risk, and capital expenditure pressure expected to reach about $300bn per year by 2031.

• HawkEye 360 (HAWK)

  New addition to the Space 60; provider of space-based RF data and SIGINT services

  Strengths

  The report says it is the only scaled space company providing unclassified RF data collection and analytics, used in maritime, air defense, navigation interference detection, and communications monitoring, and it has already achieved profitability.

  Weaknesses

  Still an earlier-stage company, with business dependent on continued expansion in demand for data analytics products.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional satellite communications or imagery companies, HAWK is more focused on RF signals intelligence and data analytics.

  Risks

  Commercialization, volatility in government/defense orders, and competition risk.

• Applied Aerospace & Defense (AADX)

  New addition to the Space 60; supplier of aerospace and defense components, structures, and subsystems

  Strengths

  Has more than 2,250 products, about 1.5 million square feet of manufacturing footprint, and capabilities in materials science and advanced manufacturing processes.

  Weaknesses

  The report says the recently merged company still has early-stage execution risk, with relatively balanced risk-reward.

  Comparison

  More exposed to the defense and aerospace manufacturing supply chain rather than satellite operations or launch platforms.

  Risks

  Integration execution, order conversion, and defense-cycle risk.

• Satellogic (SATL)

  New addition to the Space 60; vertically integrated Earth observation company

  Strengths

  As of March 31, 2026, it had 18 satellites in orbit, including 16 operational satellites, can provide imagery with up to 50 cm resolution, and plans the AI-driven Merlin constellation.

  Weaknesses

  The report labels it Not Covered, and the Merlin constellation is still in development and pending launch.

  Comparison

  Compared with Starlink’s connectivity services, Satellogic is focused on Earth observation, imagery, and constellation-capacity sales.

  Risks

  Constellation launch, commercial demand, funding, and execution risk.

• MP Materials (MP)

  Space 60 raw materials and mining segment; rare earth magnets and North American rare earth supply chain

  Strengths

  Operates Mountain Pass, the only scaled rare earth mine and processing facility in the U.S., and produces rare earth magnets in Fort Worth.

  Weaknesses

  Space revenue is an indirect exposure, dependent on aerospace and defense supply-chain demand.

  Comparison

  Provides upstream critical materials rather than direct aerospace hardware or satellite services.

  Risks

  Rare earth prices, policy, processing capability, and supply-chain concentration risk.

• Alcoa (AA)

  Space 60 raw materials segment; potential beneficiary of aluminum, alumina, and gallium supply

  Strengths

  A global leader in the aluminum value chain, and has announced a Western Australia gallium JV project supported by the U.S., Australian, and Japanese governments, targeting annual production of 100 tons of gallium.

  Weaknesses

  Current space demand remains relatively small versus global metals demand.

  Comparison

  Compared with direct space companies, its investment thesis is more tied to critical mineral supply security and material substitution.

  Risks

  Commodity prices, project execution, China supply concentration, and policy risk.

• Hexcel (HXL)

  Space 60 specialty materials and composites segment

  Strengths

  Produces advanced composite materials; in fiscal 2025, Defense, Space & Other segment revenue was $747.0mn, accounting for 39% of revenue, up 5.4% year over year.

  Weaknesses

  Space business is only part of the segment, and revenue exposure is not entirely from space.

  Comparison

  Represents the supply-chain opportunity for lightweight composites in launch vehicles, rocket engines, and satellite structures.

  Risks

  Aerospace and defense cycle, project delivery, and fluctuations in materials demand.

Key data

• SpaceX orbital launchesAbout 650, as of March 2026The report states that SpaceX is the world’s largest orbital launch service provider by launch count and mass delivered to orbit.
• SpaceX mission success rateAbout 99%The report states that most launches use reused Falcon boosters.
• Starlink operational satellites in orbitMore than 10,000About 75% of all active maneuverable satellites in orbit.
• Starlink broadband usersAbout 12 millionCovering more than 160 countries/regions.
• Starlink Mobile monthly active unique devicesAbout 7.4 millionThe report says direct-to-phone service is still at an early stage.
• SpaceX revenue forecast$45bn in 2026, $319bn in 2030, $3.3tn in 2040Morgan Stanley base-case forecast.
• SpaceX capital expenditure outlookAbout $300bn per year by 2031The report lists this as a major source of financing and execution risk.
• Starship cost assumptionApproaching about $500/kg in 2030 and below $150/kg in 2040The report model assumes Starship is fully reusable and has payload capacity more than four times that of Falcon 9.
• U.S. Space Force budget$71bn, about +77% year over yearBased on the proposed U.S. defense budget submitted on April 3.
• Trends in space launches and objects placed into orbitFrom 2020 to 2025, CAGR of objects launched was about +20%, and global successful launches CAGR was about +25%From the report chart title.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that growth in the space industry may benefit vertically integrated platforms, satellite service providers, and upstream "critical input" companies across the value chain. The inclusion of SpaceX increases the Space 60’s representation of launch, satellite internet, and future space AI infrastructure; meanwhile, raw materials, specialty alloys, propellants, and electronics reflect indirect opportunities arising from supply-chain bottlenecks and expanding defense/commercial space demand.

Risks

• SpaceX’s long-term growth model depends on the delivery of Starship, Starlink, and AI infrastructure businesses, creating significant execution risk.
• The report expects SpaceX capital expenditure to reach about $300bn per year by 2031, implying high financing pressure.
• Regulatory approvals, spectrum, launch permits, national security, and cross-border service rules could affect satellite internet and launch businesses.
• Critical mineral supply is highly concentrated, and disruptions in materials such as rare earths, tungsten, gallium, and germanium could delay aerospace manufacturing cycles.
• The Space 60 is a dynamic, non-exhaustive list, and inclusion or removal does not equate to a change in Morgan Stanley’s rating, target price, or fundamental view on a stock.
• Some companies are Not Covered and lack formal Morgan Stanley ratings and target price support.

What to watch

• Progress in SpaceX Starship reusability, the path of launch-cost reduction, and delivery of payload capability.
• Starlink user growth, coverage of direct-to-phone services, and pace of commercialization.
• SpaceX capital expenditure financing arrangements and progress on regulatory approvals.
• Changes in the U.S. Space Force budget, defense space procurement, and commercial space launch demand.
• Critical mineral supply security policies, especially for rare earths, tungsten, gallium, germanium, and aluminum/copper-related projects.
• Subsequent changes to Space 60 constituents, especially additions and removals driven by M&A, liquidity, business relevance, or subindustry concentration.