Summer off-season weighs on industry orders, while new models drive sequential growth for Leapmotor, BYD, and Xiaomi

Overview

This report tracks orders, passenger vehicle sales, end-market discounts, and battery supply-chain prices in China's NEV market for Week 33 of 2026. The market is in the summer off-season, with orders and sales under YoY pressure, but new model launches have driven sequential order improvements for certain brands, while NEV wholesale penetration has continued to rise.

Core views

Near-term industry demand remains constrained by seasonality, with aggregate orders for key automakers declining sharply YoY; structurally, new models are the main driver of order growth. Leapmotor, BYD, and Xiaomi performed relatively well, while NIO, HIMA, and XPeng demonstrated stronger resilience in year-to-date order growth. End-market discounts narrowed slightly, while rising lithium carbonate prices may increase battery material cost pressure.

Analysis framework

Using weekly brand orders as the core metric, combined with CPCA passenger vehicle retail and wholesale data, dealer discount tracking, and upstream battery raw-material prices, the report provides a high-frequency assessment of demand, competition, and cost changes in the NEV industry.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency industry trackingWeekly order and sales tracking

  Orders, retail sales, wholesale sales, and penetration rate

  Tracks industry demand strength and changes in NEV penetration through weekly orders for key brands and CPCA passenger vehicle retail and wholesale data.

• Price and cost trackingEnd-market discount and battery price tracking

  Dealer discounts, lithium carbonate, and battery cell prices

  Compares end-market discounts for NEVs and ICE vehicles and tracks lithium carbonate and battery cell prices to assess end-market competitive intensity and upstream cost changes.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Leapmotor

  New energy vehicle brand

  Strengths

  Week 33 orders increased 22% QoQ, among the higher growth rates of key brands; the new A05 model provides an order catalyst.

  Weaknesses

  The industry as a whole is in the off-season, and orders for key automakers remain significantly lower YoY.

  Comparison

  Weekly order growth exceeded BYD's 13% and Xiaomi's 9%.

  Risks

  Sustainability of new-model orders, off-season demand, and industry price competition.

• BYD

  New energy vehicle brand

  Strengths

  Week 33 orders increased 13% QoQ, with the new Qin Max as a key driver; its average dealer discount was 3.95%, below the NEV industry average.

  Weaknesses

  Weekly growth relies primarily on new models, while total industry demand remains under pressure.

  Comparison

  Sequential order growth was below Leapmotor's 22% but above Xiaomi's 9%.

  Risks

  New-product ramp-up below expectations, end-market competition, and rising upstream lithium prices.

• Xiaomi

  New energy vehicle brand

  Strengths

  Week 33 orders increased 9% QoQ, with catalysts from new model launches.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide its absolute order volume or profitability data.

  Comparison

  Sequential order growth was below that of Leapmotor and BYD.

  Risks

  Launch timing for new N70/N90 models, intensifying competition, and demand volatility.

• NIO, HIMA, XPeng

  New energy vehicle brands

  Strengths

  Year-to-date orders increased 40%, 23%, and 1% YoY, respectively, reflecting relatively defensive growth.

  Weaknesses

  XPeng's year-to-date order growth rate was low.

  Comparison

  All three outperformed most industry peers cited in the report on a year-to-date order basis.

  Risks

  Earnings performance, OTA and new-model progress falling short of expectations, and an extended industry off-season.

Key data

• Weekly orders for key NEV companiesQoQ +2%, YoY -38%Week 33 of 2026, with the market entering the summer off-season.
• Weekly orders for Leapmotor/BYD/XiaomiQoQ +22%/+13%/+9%Mainly driven by new model launches, including Leapmotor A05 and BYD Qin Max.
• NEV passenger vehicle retail sales195,000 units, YoY -17%, QoQ -4%CPCA basis, August 1 to 9.
• NEV passenger vehicle wholesale sales195,000 units, YoY -5%, QoQ +5%CPCA basis, August 1 to 9.
• NEV penetration rateRetail 61.6%, wholesale 70.9%August 1 to 9; July levels were 64.4% and 65.3%, respectively.
• Average dealer discount for NEVs7.24%As of August 15, slightly narrowed from 7.29% on August 8.
• Average dealer discount for ICE vehicles19.83%As of August 15, slightly narrowed from 19.85% on August 8.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceRmb151.5k/ton, QoQ +5.6%LFP and NCM prismatic cell prices were flat QoQ.

Impact & implications

New models can improve brands' short-term order performance during the off-season, but overall industry demand remains weak YoY and requires validation from monthly sales and subsequent orders. Rising NEV penetration on the wholesale side supports the continuation of the electrification trend; however, higher lithium carbonate prices may compress battery supply-chain margins or increase pressure to pass through costs to vehicle prices.

Risks

• The summer off-season may last longer than expected, causing further weakness in orders and sales.
• Order conversion or sustainability after new model launches may fall short of expectations.
• Changes in end-market discounts may intensify price competition and affect vehicle profitability.
• Further increases in lithium carbonate prices may raise battery costs and compress supply-chain margins.
• Weekly order data are subject to high-frequency volatility and may not represent monthly delivery or profitability trends.

What to watch

• BYD Tai 7 launch on August 18.
• XPeng VLA2.0 OTA rollout in August.
• XPeng and Leapmotor to report 2Q26 earnings on August 24.
• Li Auto to report 2Q26 earnings on August 26.
• BYD to report 2Q26 earnings on August 28.
• NEV manufacturers to announce monthly sales on September 1.
• CPCA to release passenger vehicle and NEV wholesale and retail data on September 10-11.
• Launch progress of the refreshed Li Auto MEGA, i9, and Xiaomi N70/N90.