Hesai Tech Open Day shows parallel progress in ADAS LiDAR upgrades and physical AI expansion

Overview

This report summarizes Hesai Group's Tech Open Day held in Shanghai on April 17, 2026. UBS believes the company demonstrated positive progress in both its ADAS LiDAR technology roadmap and its physical AI strategy: on one hand, it launched the Picasso SPAD-SoC and the next-generation ETX series LiDAR based on this chip; on the other hand, it introduced Kosmo spatial intelligence hardware and plans to enter robot actuation modules.

Core views

UBS's core view is that Hesai is well positioned to further consolidate its global leadership in ADAS LiDAR while expanding its business boundaries from in-vehicle intelligent driving to robotics, embodied intelligence, and foundational physical AI data collection. The report also maintains its US$36.00 target price under the DCF method and a Buy rating.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses an event-driven commentary and fundamentals validation framework, analyzing around new product specifications, mass-production timelines, order and shipment expectations, downstream application scenarios, partners, and valuation assumptions. The valuation section uses the DCF method, while short-term factor analysis references the UBS Quantitative Research Review.

Methodology notes

• Valuation MethodDCF

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  UBS uses the DCF method to derive Hesai Group's US$36.00 target price and maintains a Buy rating.

• Short-term Factor AssessmentQuantitative Research Review

  Analysts' quantitative responses on short-term industry, regulatory, fundamental, and catalyst issues

  Most scores in the short-term questionnaire disclosed in the report are 3, indicating that industry structure, regulatory environment, near-term trends, and risks around the next EPS update are broadly close to neutral, and showing no clear catalyst over the next three months.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• HSAI.US

  Core covered name

  Strengths

  A global leader in LiDAR solutions, with rapid iteration in ADAS LiDAR products, ample ATX orders, leading ETX series specifications, and expansion into robotics and physical AI application scenarios.

  Weaknesses

  Mass production of new products, customer acquisition, and downstream adoption pace still need to be validated; current earnings forecasts still rely on future shipment growth and margin improvement.

  Comparison

  UBS forecasts 2026E EPS at Rmb4.81, above consensus at Rmb4.00; 2027E EPS is Rmb6.20, close to consensus at Rmb6.28.

  Risks

  New product development slower than expected, customer acquisition slower than expected, share changes among customers such as Li Auto and Xiaomi, ADAS penetration or LiDAR adoption below expectations, and pricing pressure from OEMs.

Key data

• Target priceUS$36.00UBS maintains its DCF-based target price.
• Current priceUS$23.25As of April 17, 2026.
• 12-month ratingBuyUBS maintains a Buy rating.
• Market capitalizationUS$3.08bTrading data disclosed in the report.
• 52-week price rangeUS$29.80-11.6152-week range disclosed in the report.
• ATX series orders6 million unitsThe refreshed ATX series entered mass production in April 2026, and the company expects full-year 2026 shipments to exceed 2 million units.
• Picasso chip photon detection efficiency>40%The report states that the chip helps detect longer distances and smaller targets under the same laser efficiency.
• ETX series specificationsup to 4,320 channels, 600-meter detection range, 4K ultra-high-definition perceptionThe company expects deliveries and mass production to begin in 2H26, with broad adoption across multiple flagship models in 2027-2028.

Impact & implications

If the ETX series is delivered as planned and adopted by flagship vehicle models, Hesai's technological leadership and scaling capability in ADAS LiDAR could be further strengthened; if Kosmo and robot actuation modules progress smoothly, the company may gain new growth curves from the physical AI and robotics industry chain.

Risks

• New product development could be faster or slower than expected, affecting mass production and revenue realization.
• Customer acquisition could be faster or slower than expected, affecting order and shipment growth.
• Share gains or losses among customers such as Li Auto and Xiaomi could affect performance.
• China's ADAS penetration rate could be below UBS expectations.
• The pace of LiDAR adoption could be below expectations.
• Significant pricing pressure from OEMs could compress profitability across the industry chain.

What to watch

• Whether the ETX series can be delivered and mass produced as planned in 2H26.
• Actual adoption progress of the ETX series in flagship vehicle models during 2027-2028.
• The delivery pace of the 6 million-unit ATX series order backlog, and whether full-year 2026 shipments exceed 2 million units.
• Kosmo's commercialization path in AI world model training data collection.
• Product definition, customer validation, and revenue contribution after entering robot actuation modules through cooperation with Sharpa.
• Whether future quarterly revenue, gross margin, EBIT margin, and free cash flow improvement meet UBS forecasts.