Global Gas Turbine Orders Set a Record in 2Q26, with the United States Remaining the Core Demand Market
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Global Gas Turbine Orders Set a Record in 2Q26, with the United States Remaining the Core Demand Market
Global gas turbine orders totaled approximately 38GW, up 71% year over year, while U.S. natural gas demand and LNG feedgas flows increased, generating moderately positive signals for energy equipment and natural gas demand.
- Global gas turbine orders totaled approximately 38GW in 2Q26, a quarterly record, up 71% year over year.
- U.S. orders were approximately 18GW, up 49% year over year, maintaining its position as the largest global market.
- Advanced H/J-class gas turbine orders were approximately 19.8GW, up 93% year over year.
- LNG feedgas flows were approximately 18.2 Bcf/d, up 2% sequentially; Henry Hub spot prices rose 8% sequentially to $2.77/MMBtu.
- U.S. natural gas inventories were 7% above the five-year average and propane inventories were 30% above the five-year average, with inventories remaining a constraint on higher prices.
Report interpretation
Overview
This edition of Natural Gas and NGL Reservoir focuses on global gas turbine orders in 2Q26, U.S. natural gas supply and demand, LNG flows, natural gas and NGL prices, and inventory changes. The central theme is the sharp increase in gas turbine orders, signaling strong power-generation equipment demand, particularly driven by the U.S. market and advanced turbine models.
Core views
JPM believes that, at the current pace, global gas turbine industry orders could reach approximately 120GW in FY2026. Known first-half orders total 67GW, compared with approximately 100GW in FY2025. Order growth supports gas turbine original equipment manufacturers and the gas-fired power generation value chain. In natural gas, higher U.S. gas consumption for power generation has driven total demand higher year over year, but inventories remain above the five-year average and the supply-demand backdrop has not yet become broadly tight.
Analysis framework
The report employs a weekly supply-demand and price-monitoring framework, combining global gas turbine order tracking; regional and manufacturer order breakdowns; U.S. natural gas production and consumption; LNG terminal flows; inventories; rig counts; and spot and futures prices for cross-analysis.
Methodology notes
Order capacity breakdown by region, turbine type, and OEM
Tracks global gas turbine orders in GW and compares year-over-year and sequential changes to assess demand for gas-fired power equipment and OEM order momentum.
Production, consumption, exports, inventories, and rig counts
Assesses marginal market supply and demand through U.S. natural gas production, gas use for power generation, industrial demand, LNG feedgas flows, inventory injections, and rig counts.
Henry Hub, AECO, Asian LNG, and European natural gas prices
Uses weekly price changes and cross-regional price comparisons to observe natural gas and LNG market pricing and regional spreads.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- ENRGas Turbine OEM
- Strengths
- Approximately 12.5GW of orders in 2Q26, ranking first among the OEMs listed in the report.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not provide margins, capacity, or order-to-revenue timing.
- Comparison
- Order volume exceeded that of GEV, MHI, Solar, and BKR.
- Risks
- Order cancellations, supply-chain constraints, project delays, and changes in end-market power demand.
- GEVGas Turbine OEM
- Strengths
- Approximately 11.3GW of orders in 2Q26, supported by rising global gas turbine demand.
- Weaknesses
- Quarterly order volume was slightly below ENR's.
- Comparison
- Second-highest order volume among the listed OEMs, above MHI, Solar, and BKR.
- Risks
- Intensifying competition, project execution risks, and longer delivery lead times.
- MHIGas Turbine OEM
- Strengths
- Approximately 5.3GW of orders in 2Q26, supported by higher demand for advanced gas turbines.
- Weaknesses
- Order volume was below ENR and GEV.
- Comparison
- Above Solar and BKR, but below ENR and GEV.
- Risks
- Regional order volatility, capacity constraints, and supply-chain execution risks.
- SolarCAT's Gas Turbine Subsidiary
- Strengths
- Approximately 2.8GW of orders in 2Q26, supported by distributed and industrial gas turbine demand.
- Weaknesses
- Order scale was below that of large gas turbine OEMs.
- Comparison
- Slightly above BKR's 2.3GW, but below ENR, GEV, and MHI.
- Risks
- An industrial-cycle downturn, equipment competition, and changes in project financing conditions.
- U.S. Natural Gas ProducersNatural Gas Price and Supply-Demand Exposure
- Strengths
- Natural gas demand rose year over year, LNG feedgas flows increased, and Henry Hub spot prices strengthened.
- Weaknesses
- Natural gas inventories remain 7% above the five-year average, limiting the extent of supply-demand tightness.
- Comparison
- Natural gas-levered equities rose 3.7% for the week and 7.4% over the past month, below XOP's 8.5%.
- Risks
- High inventories, production recovery, weather deviations, LNG terminal disruptions, and price declines.
Key data
- Global Gas Turbine Orders (2Q26)Approximately 38GWQuarterly record; up 71% year over year and approximately 150% above 2Q24.
- FY2026 Global Gas Turbine Order ForecastApproximately 120GWBased on the current order pace; first-half 2026 orders have reached 67GW, versus approximately 100GW in FY2025.
- U.S. Gas Turbine Orders (2Q26)Approximately 18GWUp 49% year over year, representing the largest regional market.
- Advanced H/J-Class Gas Turbine OrdersApproximately 19.8GWUp 93% year over year.
- Major OEM OrdersENR 12.5GW; GEV 11.3GW; MHI 5.3GW; Solar 2.8GW; BKR 2.3GWGlobal order volumes for 2Q26.
- U.S. Lower 48 Natural Gas Production111.1 Bcf/dUp 0.1% sequentially; averaging 111.0 Bcf/d month-to-date in August.
- U.S. Natural Gas Demand91.8 Bcf/dUp 5% sequentially and 3% year over year, primarily driven by increased gas use for power generation.
- LNG feedgas flowsApproximately 18.2 Bcf/dUp 2% sequentially, with notable increases at Corpus Christi and Freeport.
- Henry Hub Spot Price$2.77/MMBtuUp 8% sequentially.
- U.S. Natural Gas Inventories3.15 Tcf7% above the five-year average and 1% below the prior-year level.
- Propane Inventories104,974 Mbbl30% above the five-year average and 18% above the prior-year level.
Impact & implications
Rapid growth in gas turbine orders supports the medium-term demand outlook for gas turbine OEMs, critical components, power-generation equipment, and related natural gas infrastructure. Rising U.S. gas use for power generation and LNG feedgas flows benefit natural gas demand, but the high-inventory environment means that spot prices and upstream company earnings still require continued validation. For energy equities, near-term performance has improved, although monthly returns remain slightly behind XOP.
Risks
- Global gas turbine orders may be affected by project delays, financing conditions, and changes in power demand.
- Natural gas inventories above the five-year average may restrain sustained price increases.
- A recovery in U.S. natural gas production or a decline in LNG export flows could weaken supply-demand improvement.
- Short-term volatility in hot weather and gas use for power generation could amplify natural gas price fluctuations.
- OEM orders do not equate to immediate revenue; delivery lead times, supply chains, and cancellation risks require continued monitoring.
What to watch
- Whether global gas turbine orders can be sustained in the second half of 2026 and support the approximately 120GW full-year order expectation.
- The geographic distribution of gas turbine orders in the United States and other regions, and the share of advanced H/J-class models.
- Subsequent orders, backlog, and delivery guidance from ENR, GEV, MHI, Solar, and BKR.
- Changes in U.S. natural gas inventories relative to the five-year average and the pace of weekly injections.
- LNG feedgas flows, particularly at Corpus Christi, Freeport, and other U.S. export terminals.
- Henry Hub and AECO spot prices, as well as futures price trends for 2026 and 2027.
- Concurrent changes in U.S. gas use for power generation, production, and rig counts.