Robinhood's April metrics mostly strengthened, with account and asset-side performance better than expected

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' monthly update on Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD.US), focusing on the impact of April 2026 operating metrics on earnings forecasts and the target price. The report shows that HOOD's April data were broadly stronger than expected, especially in accounts, net deposits, platform assets, margin balances, and stock, options, and event contract activity; the main drag came from continued declines in crypto trading volume.

Core views

The core view is that Robinhood's user and asset base is still expanding, and stock, options, and event contracts provide solid support for trading activity. Improvements in platform assets and margin balances also help the revenue base; however, the pullback in crypto trading volume led Goldman Sachs to modestly lower its 2026E revenue and EPS forecasts. Overall, Goldman Sachs did not change its valuation framework or 12-month target price, indicating that its view of the medium-term fundamentals remains constructive.

Analysis framework

The report uses a monthly operating metrics tracking approach, comparing April funded accounts, trading volume, average daily trading activity, net deposits, platform assets, margin balances, cash sweep balances, and securities lending revenue against the prior month, the same period last year, Goldman Sachs' estimates, and the trailing 12-month average, and then updating revenue, EPS, and valuation assumptions accordingly.

Methodology notes

• equity_researchmonthly_operating_metrics_update

  Monthly operating data tracking

  Use high-frequency indicators such as accounts, assets, trading volume, commissions, net deposits, and margin balances to gauge platform momentum and update revenue and earnings forecasts.

• Valuation methodsprice_to_earnings_multiple

  P/E valuation multiple

  Goldman Sachs maintained the Q5-Q8 P/E multiple at 33.0x and therefore kept the 12-month target price at $94.

• proprietary_frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs factor profile

  This framework compares a stock's growth, financial returns, valuation multiple, and composite attributes relative to the market and industry peers to provide investment context.

• strategic_optional_valueM&A Rank

  M&A probability score

  Goldman Sachs scores the likelihood of a company becoming an acquisition target from 1 to 3, where 1 indicates a high probability, 2 a medium probability, and 3 a low probability.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• HOOD.US

  covered_company

  Strengths

  Accounts and platform assets continue to grow; stock, options, and event contract volume reached the second-highest monthly level on record; margin balances rose sharply year over year; net deposits were above expectations.

  Weaknesses

  Crypto trading volume fell sharply sequentially; app downloads declined sequentially; cash sweep balances remained below the 12-month average; securities lending revenue declined sequentially.

  Comparison

  In April, stock/options/event contract volume rose 15%/9%/7% sequentially, which was better than or close to Goldman Sachs' expectations; crypto trading volume fell 33% sequentially, becoming the main negative variance.

  Risks

  A decline in retail trading participation could weaken trading volume and commission revenue; lower rates may affect the growth path of net interest income; cross-selling new products to the user base may be weaker than expected and those products may have lower margins; payment for order flow regulatory changes could disrupt the business model.

Key data

• Funded accounts27.6mnApril net additions of about 0.2mn, ~7% y/y growth, implying about 9% annualized growth.
• Platform assets$345.4bnUp 12% sequentially and 49% year over year, supported by stronger market levels.
• Net deposits$6.0bnAbove Goldman Sachs' estimate of $5.1bn; relative to March 2026 platform assets, this implies about a 30% annualized growth rate.
• Margin balances$18.0bnUp 6% sequentially and 114% year over year, slightly above Goldman Sachs' estimate.
• Cash sweep balances$27.6bnUp 6% sequentially, but the chart indicates only 4% y/y growth, about 12% below the 12-month average.
• Stock trading volume$248.5bnUp 15% sequentially and 58% year over year, reaching the second-highest monthly level on record.
• Options trading volume225mn contractsUp 9% sequentially and 34% year over year.
• Event contract volume3.2bn contractsUp 7% sequentially; event contract commissions per day grew sharply year over year, with a meaningful low-base contribution.
• Crypto trading volume$11.9bnDown 33% sequentially and up 38% year over year; Bitstamp and Robinhood App volumes declined 46% and 5% sequentially, respectively.
• Total commissions/day$9.3mnUp 11.3% sequentially and 26.3% year over year, close to the 12-month average.
• Forecast revision2026E revenue -1%; 2026E/2027E EPS -2%/-1%Mainly reflects lower crypto trading volumes, partly offset by stock, options, event contracts, and account growth.
• 12-month target price$94Unchanged; valuation multiple remains 33.0x Q5-Q8 P/E.

Impact & implications

The implication for HOOD is that business momentum remains supported by diversified trading activity, account growth, and asset expansion, especially as improvements in stock, options, event contracts, and margin balances help cushion the impact of weaker crypto trading. From an investment perspective, an unchanged target price and only modest revenue/EPS reductions suggest Goldman Sachs does not believe the near-term crypto drag is enough to alter the medium-term valuation framework.

Risks

• A decline in retail customer participation could weaken trading volume and commission revenue.
• Lower interest rates could affect the growth path of net interest income.
• Cross-selling new products to the user base may be weaker than expected, and the related products may have lower margins.
• Changes in payment for order flow regulation could pressure the business model.
• Continued declines in crypto trading volume could keep weighing on revenue and EPS forecasts.

What to watch

• Whether monthly stock, options, crypto, and event contract volumes continue the April trend.
• Whether net new funded accounts and app downloads can reaccelerate.
• Whether growth in net deposits and platform assets is sustainable.
• The contribution of margin balances and cash sweep balances to interest-related revenue.
• The divergence between Bitstamp and Robinhood App volumes within the crypto business.
• Regulatory developments around payment for order flow.