Global e-commerce heads toward 6% long-term growth, with scale consolidation, ecosystem monetization, and agentic shopping as three key themes

Overview

This report reviews global e-commerce across market size, online penetration, industry concentration, platform business models, agentic shopping, retail media, and valuation frameworks. Goldman Sachs believes the industry has moved from rapid online migration into a more mature stage, but global retail growth, catch-up in low-penetration regions, consolidation among leading platforms, and ecosystem monetization will continue to support long-term growth.

Core views

The report first estimates that global e-commerce sales will increase from $4.5 trillion in 2025 to $4.9 trillion in 2026, representing 8% year-over-year growth; from 2026 to 2031, sales are expected to rise at a 6% CAGR to $6.4 trillion. The principal driver is overall retail sales growth, while online penetration provides a modest incremental contribution: using "addressable retail sales," which exclude autos, gasoline, and restaurants, as the denominator, global e-commerce penetration is expected to rise from 24% in 2026 to 27% in 2031. E-commerce sales outside China are expected to grow at a 7% CAGR over the same period. Regional maturity varies significantly. Because of their currently low penetration rates, India and Latin America are expected to achieve 2026–2031 CAGRs of 18% and 13%, respectively; nevertheless, China and the United States will still contribute most of the incremental growth in global e-commerce. Regarding industry structure, Goldman Sachs continues to emphasize scale effects and the concentration of market share among large platforms. In 2025, the five largest pure-play e-commerce platforms outside China accounted for 47% of online sales within the covered markets, with Amazon at 33%, Shopify at 7%, eBay at 3%, and Coupang and MercadoLibre at 2% each; by 2028, their combined share is expected to rise to 54%. The Chinese market is more concentrated, with the top five platforms accounting for more than 90% in 2025: Alibaba at 35%, Pinduoduo at 24%, JD at 19%, Douyin at 17%, and Kuaishou at 5%. Alibaba has experienced the largest share decline in recent years, while Pinduoduo and Douyin have posted the largest gains, but the report expects the total share of China's top five platforms to remain above 90% going forward. The report characterizes the evolution of e-commerce business models as a progression from Commerce 1.0 to Commerce 3.0. Commerce 1.0 centers on moving 1P retail online, with competition determined by product selection, price, convenience, and the scale of fulfillment networks, but it requires substantial investment in inventory, labor, warehousing, and logistics. Commerce 2.0 introduces 3P inventory, marketplaces, and mobile interfaces. Platforms connect buyers and sellers and provide payments, logistics, advertising, and customer-acquisition services, monetizing through transaction commissions while leaving more inventory risk with merchants; compared with the traditional 1P model, this structure can expand GMV without proportionate increases in inventory, working capital, and fulfillment assets. Commerce 3.0 shifts the center of value from individual transactions to consumer and merchant relationships, expanding ecosystem monetization through advertising, payments, subscriptions, logistics, financial products, merchant software, and AI shopping experiences. This diversifies the revenue mix, strengthens margin resilience, and reduces dependence on merchandise transaction volume as the sole source of growth. Different ecosystem businesses play distinct economic roles. Fulfillment and logistics services can use existing networks to increase package density and utilization of idle capacity while strengthening merchant stickiness through faster delivery, lower unit costs, and a broader range of deliverable products, although their asset intensity and margins are generally less attractive than those of advertising or software. Retail media leverages platform traffic, first-party data, and purchase intent to connect advertising spending with actual purchases and returns on investment; although it may represent a relatively small share of revenue, it often contributes a disproportionate share of operating profit and is viewed by the report as one of the most important sources of margin expansion. Payments and financial services reduce checkout friction and improve transaction visibility, which is particularly important in emerging markets. Membership programs generate limited revenue on their own, but members typically purchase more frequently and have higher annual spending and retention rates. Merchant software, analytics, marketing, and operating tools can generate high-margin, recurring revenue and deepen seller dependence on the platform. Agentic commerce is another long-term theme in the report, but it remains at an early stage. The report distinguishes between two paths: first, large language models act as off-site shopping engines, searching, comparing, and recommending products across websites and structured data sources, thereby directing still-small but rapidly growing and high-intent referral traffic to e-commerce sites; second, platforms deploy AI shopping assistants within existing websites or applications to help users compare options and provide recommendations based on specific needs. Goldman Sachs believes that higher model accuracy, stronger personalization, broader merchant-system integration, and the convenience of delegated shopping tasks will gradually drive adoption. However, consumer trust and willingness to authorize automated execution are not yet mature, and meaningful profit growth may take years to materialize. Shopping automation is expected to progress from preset repeat purchases to research assistants, multi-item bundles, and authorized execution. Existing services such as Amazon Subscribe & Save and Chewy Autoship can already automate routine replenishment. At the research stage, agents scan websites and generate recommendations, but humans still make the final decisions and payments. At the multi-item bundle stage, agents must resolve trade-offs among products. At the execution stage, they are permitted to make purchases directly within specified parameters. A Visa survey shows that 53% of U.S. businesses are willing to allow AI agents to negotiate directly with other agents on their behalf. As buyers shift from humans to agents, e-commerce platforms must not only retain human-oriented visual and brand expression but also provide clear data and transparent, predictable policies and formats. Everyday goods that require little research and are repeatedly purchased are more suitable for entering the execution stage first, while emotionally and experientially driven categories such as luxury goods are more likely to remain at the AI-assisted research stage, with humans making the final decision. Considering market size, concentration, ecosystem monetization, and regional growth, Goldman Sachs identifies Amazon.com, JD.com, Coupang, MercadoLibre, Zalando, and Eternal as Buy-rated long-term e-commerce winners representing the United States, China, South Korea, Latin America, Europe, and India, respectively. The report explicitly lists 12-month price targets of $375, $43, $29, and $2,300 for Amazon, JD, Coupang, and MercadoLibre, respectively. The valuation section also examines e-commerce companies' trading multiples based on GMV, gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA, as well as adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow multiples and intrinsic-value frameworks for broader internet companies, reflecting the scale, profitability, and cash-flow characteristics of different business models.

Analysis framework

The report first aggregates bottom-up forecasts from six global research teams to build a global e-commerce industry model covering the United States, China, South Korea, Latin America, Europe, India, Canada, Japan, and Australasia. It then explains regional growth through sales scale, addressable retail sales, and online penetration before assessing concentration through platform-share estimates. Next, the report analyzes business models along the evolution from 1P retail to 3P marketplaces and ecosystem monetization, separately discussing the profitability and competitive roles of logistics, advertising, payments, subscriptions, merchant services, and agentic tools. Finally, it combines trading multiples, cash flow, and intrinsic-value frameworks to select regional platforms.

Methodology notes

• (Method outside the vocabulary)

  Bottom-up global e-commerce industry model

  Goldman Sachs aggregates company and regional forecasts from six regional research teams to produce estimates of global sales, growth rates, and penetration, which are used to compare market maturity and growth contributions.

• (Method outside the vocabulary)

  Addressable retail sales methodology

  The report uses total retail sales excluding autos, gasoline, and restaurants as the denominator for e-commerce penetration; for platforms primarily focused on discretionary goods, it also uses core retail sales excluding autos, gasoline, and food.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkIndustry concentration analysis

  Market-share analysis of leading platforms

  The report calculates the shares of the five largest platforms outside China and in the Chinese market and compares historical changes with forecast shares to assess scale advantages and the direction of further industry consolidation.

• Competitive and Strategic FrameworkValue chain analysis

  Evolution of business models from Commerce 1.0 to 3.0

  The report examines inventory ownership, marketplace intermediation, fulfillment, payments, advertising, merchant services, and other links to explain how platforms expand from retail transactions into consumer and merchant ecosystems.

• (Method outside the vocabulary)

  Trading multiples and intrinsic-value framework

  The report combines multiples related to GMV, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow with intrinsic-value frameworks to compare e-commerce and internet companies with different business models.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Amazon.com (AMZN)

  The report identifies it as a Buy-rated long-term winner in U.S. e-commerce and explicitly assigns a 12-month price target of $375.

  Strengths

  It held a leading 33% share of covered markets outside China in 2025; the report also identifies it as a leading U.S. platform in agentic commerce and uses its fulfillment and membership services to illustrate ecosystem advantages.

  Weaknesses

  Its 1P and logistics businesses require substantial infrastructure investment, and logistics margins are generally lower than those of advertising or software businesses.

  Comparison

  Its 2025 share was significantly higher than SHOP's 7% and the 2%–3% shares of the other top-five platforms.

  Risks

  The adoption of agentic commerce, consumer trust, and profit realization remain at an early stage.

• JD.com (JD)

  The report identifies it as a Buy-rated long-term winner in Chinese e-commerce and explicitly assigns a 12-month price target of $43.

  Strengths

  It held a 19% share of China's e-commerce market in 2025, ranking third among the major platforms.

  Comparison

  Its share was below Alibaba's 35% and Pinduoduo's 24% but above Douyin's 17% and Kuaishou's 5%.

  Risks

  Online return rates are rising in China, and the report uses GMV net of returns for industry and company comparisons.

• Coupang (CPNG)

  The report identifies it as a Buy-rated long-term winner in South Korean e-commerce and explicitly assigns a 12-month price target of $29.

  Strengths

  It ranks among the five largest pure-play e-commerce platforms outside China, with a 2% share in 2025; its WOW membership program helps increase purchase frequency, retention, and share of wallet.

  Comparison

  Among the covered platforms outside China, its share was the same as MercadoLibre's at 2%.

• MercadoLibre (MELI)

  The report identifies it as a Buy-rated long-term winner in Latin American e-commerce and explicitly assigns a 12-month price target of $2,300.

  Strengths

  It held a 2% share of covered markets outside China in 2025; Mercado Envios, MELI+, and its payment services demonstrate its logistics, membership, and financial ecosystem, while Latin America is expected to grow by 13% from 2026 to 2031.

  Comparison

  Along with Coupang, it ranks among the five largest pure-play e-commerce platforms outside China and benefits from faster growth in lower-penetration regions.

• Zalando (ZALG.DE)

  The report identifies it as a Buy-rated long-term winner in European e-commerce and a leading local platform in agentic commerce.

  Strengths

  It represents the European market's long-term e-commerce opportunity in the report's regional platform selection.

  Comparison

  It was selected alongside Amazon, JD, Coupang, MercadoLibre, and Eternal as a Buy-rated winner in its respective region.

• Eternal (ETEA.BO)

  The report identifies it as a Buy-rated long-term winner in Indian e-commerce.

  Strengths

  India's e-commerce market is expected to achieve an 18% sales CAGR from 2026 to 2031, offering substantial catch-up potential due to low penetration.

  Comparison

  India's forecast growth rate of 18% is higher than Latin America's 13% and the global rate of 6%.

  Risks

  India's quick-commerce market has multiple competing platforms, and the report states that industry competition remains intense.

Key data

• 2025 global e-commerce sales$4.5tnGoldman Sachs industry model estimate
• 2026 global e-commerce sales$4.9tnExpected to grow 8% year over year
• 2031 global e-commerce sales$6.4tnCorresponding to a 6% CAGR from 2026 to 2031
• Global e-commerce penetration24% in 2026; 27% in 2031Using addressable retail sales excluding autos, gasoline, and restaurants as the denominator
• E-commerce growth outside China2026–2031 CAGR 7%Above the 6% global forecast for the same period
• India e-commerce growth2026–2031 CAGR 18%Above-average growth in a low-penetration market
• Latin America e-commerce growth2026–2031 CAGR 13%Above-average growth in a low-penetration market
• Share of the five largest platforms outside China47% in 2025; 54% in 2028The report expects market share to continue concentrating among large platforms
• 2025 shares of major platforms outside ChinaAMZN 33%; SHOP 7%; EBAY 3%; CPNG 2%; MELI 2%Share of addressable e-commerce sales within the covered markets
• 2025 shares of major Chinese platformsBABA 35%; PDD 24%; JD 19%; Douyin 17%; Kuaishou 5%The five largest platforms account for more than 90% combined
• Share of businesses accepting agentic negotiation53%Share of U.S. businesses in a Visa survey willing to let AI agents negotiate directly with other agents on their behalf
• Explicitly stated 12-month price targetsAMZN $375; JD $43; CPNG $29; MELI $2,300The report assigns Buy ratings to all four

Impact & implications

The report believes that the maturation of global e-commerce does not mean platform economics will cease improving. Overall retail growth and modestly rising penetration can continue to expand the market, while market-share concentration and ecosystem revenue from advertising, subscriptions, payments, and merchant services can enhance the earnings resilience of leading platforms. Agentic shopping may reshape product discovery, comparison, customer acquisition, and transaction execution, but its near-term impact will primarily involve high-intent traffic and assisted research; meaningful profit contributions are expected to take years to emerge.

Risks

• Consumer adoption of and trust in agentic shopping remain at an early stage, and translating it into meaningful profit growth may take years.
• The global expansion of Chinese e-commerce companies continues to face the geopolitical risks explicitly cited in the report.
• Fulfillment and logistics businesses are asset-intensive, and their margins are generally lower than those of advertising and software businesses.
• Agents may change how products are discovered, customers are acquired, and transactions are executed, requiring traditional e-commerce interfaces and platforms to adapt to potential industry disruption.
• India's quick-commerce market has numerous participants, and competition remains intense.

What to watch

• Track whether global e-commerce sales can achieve a 6% CAGR from 2026 to 2031 and whether penetration can rise from 24% to 27%.
• Monitor whether India and Latin America can achieve their forecast CAGRs of 18% and 13%, respectively.
• Watch whether the combined share of the five largest platforms outside China can rise from 47% in 2025 to 54% in 2028.
• Track the scale, growth rate, and purchase intent of LLM-referred traffic, as well as changes in consumer trust in automated shopping execution.
• Monitor progress in model accuracy, personalization capabilities, merchant-system integration, and the convenience of delegated shopping.
• Watch the pace at which AI shopping migrates from research assistants to multi-item bundles and authorized execution, particularly its adoption in routine repeat-purchase categories.
• Monitor retail media revenue and its contribution to platform operating profit and margin expansion.