Morgan Stanley Releases Greater China Materials Asia Pacific Demand Data Tracking

Overview

The Greater China Materials and Asia Pacific demand tracking report released by Morgan Stanley focuses on analyzing major industrial product demand data for May 2026. The report shows that battery production growth outpaces lithium production, auto sales continue to face pressure, and cement prices show regional differentiation characteristics.

Core views

Core data shows industrial demand presents structural differentiation: 1. Regarding battery materials, May planned capacity expected to grow 7% (MoM), lithium material output growth rate only 2%, battery material growth advantage is clear; 2. Auto sales side, April retail sales fell 20% YoY, new energy vehicle retail quantity -5% but +4% MoM, penetration rate maintained at high 30%; 3. Steel industry aspect, late April crude steel daily output 203.6 million tons, down 3.6% MoM; 4. Cement prices show significant regional differences, eastern prices continue to fall, southern manufacturers push price increases through self-discipline actions.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a data tracking analysis framework to monitor industry prosperity through multi-dimensional high-frequency data. Specifically includes: - Monthly production data MoM analysis: Compare growth rate differences between battery materials and lithium materials - Sales data breakdown: Distinguish new energy vehicle and traditional fuel vehicle sales trends - Regional price monitoring: Compare cement price trends in different regions - Capacity utilization tracking: Judge supply side trend through changes in crude steel daily output

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Analyze supply-demand relationship via comparison of production and sales data

  The report compares production data such as crude steel output and cement shipment volumes, combined with sales data such as NEV penetration rates, to analyze the supply-demand balance state of different industries

• Cycle and Prosperity FrameworkInventory Cycle

  Determine industry prosperity stage through inventory levels

  The report monitors inventory data such as glass inventory growing 21% YoY, combined with capacity utilization changes, to determine the inventory cycle position the industry is in

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• CATL (300750.SZ)

  Beneficiary target of battery material capacity expansion

• Conch Cement (600585.SS)

  Target sensitive to cement price fluctuations

Key data

• Battery Material Planned Capacity7% MoMSignificantly higher than the 2% MoM growth rate of lithium materials
• New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate30%April NEV retail sales share maintained at high level
• Eastern Cement Shipment Volume46%Down 2.8 percentage points MoM, down 6.3 percentage points YoY
• Glass Inventory70.4 mn wt casesMoM +3%, YoY +21% hitting record high

Impact & implications

The research report indicates the new energy vehicle industry chain maintains relatively high prosperity, while traditional industrial products face demand pressure. The growth difference between battery materials and lithium materials may exacerbate the contradiction in lithium resource supply and demand. The regional price differentiation in the cement industry will affect enterprise profit structure.

Risks

• New energy vehicle subsidy withdrawal exceeds expectations
• Infrastructure investment growth continues to slow
• Real estate market deep adjustment

What to watch

• June new energy vehicle sales data
• Impact of rainy season on cement demand
• Local government special bond issuance progress