2Q sales momentum at premium shopping malls slowed, but experts are positive on a K-shaped recovery in 2H

Overview

This report focuses on China's premium consumption channels, based on an expert call with someone familiar with premium consumption trends in China and who has observed a leading luxury shopping mall operator with more than 100 mid- to high-end shopping malls. The core conclusion is that since 2Q26, sales and foot traffic at leading premium malls have slowed versus March, but luxury shopping malls still outperform non-luxury shopping malls; the expert remains optimistic on 2H26 due to China's K-shaped consumption recovery, wealthy consumers benefiting from stock market gains, and stabilizing real estate markets in tier-1 cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Core views

First, sales growth at premium malls slowed at the margin in 2Q26, but this is not a broad-based stall, and May promotional campaigns were still able to significantly boost sales and foot traffic. Second, luxury malls still retain a structural advantage over non-luxury malls, with food & beverage and entertainment performing faster. Third, the gold jewelry segment is overall weak, but Laopu Gold significantly outperformed the segment thanks to its premium positioning, store adjustments, and marketing activities targeting high-end consumers. Fourth, outdoor sports remain resilient, with premium outdoor brands such as Arc'teryx and Salomon maintaining more than 20% YoY same-store sales growth.

Analysis framework

The report uses expert calls and channel checks to observe same-store sales growth, foot traffic changes, and category-level performance across projects under a leading premium shopping mall operator, and combines disclosed ratings, target prices, valuation methods, and risk factors to derive investment implications for relevant listed companies and consumer subsectors.

Methodology notes

• Research methodExpert call / channel checks

  Assess premium consumption momentum in China through expert observations of leading premium shopping mall projects.

  This method can provide relatively timely channel feedback, but the sample is concentrated on one leading operator and its premium projects, so the conclusions are more applicable to premium shopping mall and luxury consumption scenarios.

• Operating metricsSame-store sales growth and foot traffic growth

  Use same-store sales growth (SSSG) and YoY foot traffic growth to measure shopping mall sales momentum.

  The report compares same-store sales and foot traffic changes in March, April, May, and since June to judge whether 2Q26 sales momentum has slowed and the short-term impact of promotional campaigns.

• Valuation methodP/E multiple valuation

  Laopu Gold's target price of HKD 1,114 is based on 22.5x FY26F P/E.

  Nomura believes this multiple is consistent with Laopu Gold's stronger sales and earnings growth trajectory, with the Hang Seng Index as the benchmark index.

• Valuation methodSOTP valuation

  Amer Sports is valued by applying target EV/EBITDA multiples to segments such as Technical Apparel, Outdoor, and Ball & Racquet.

  The report applies target F12M EV/EBITDA multiples separately to Amer Sports' segments, and the target price of USD 49.30 implies 16.3x F12M EV/EBITDA.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Laopu Gold (6181 HK)

  A premium gold jewelry issuer highlighted in the report, with a disclosed Buy rating.

  Strengths

  In leading luxury shopping mall projects, April same-store sales were about +50% YoY and May exceeded +60% YoY, while the company also advanced its luxury positioning through store adjustments and marketing activities aimed at high-end consumers.

  Weaknesses

  The overall gold jewelry segment in which it operates weakened in 2Q26, with same-store sales down low-double digits / mid-double digits YoY in April and May.

  Comparison

  It significantly outperformed the overall gold jewelry segment and also benefited from the structural advantage of luxury shopping malls over non-luxury shopping malls.

  Risks

  A significant decline in gold prices, fashion risk higher than expected, or a weaker-than-expected macro environment.

• Amer Sports Inc (AS US)

  The parent company of premium outdoor brands mentioned in the report; performance of Arc'teryx and Salomon is used to observe resilience in outdoor consumption.

  Strengths

  Arc'teryx and Salomon still achieved more than 20% YoY same-store sales growth since 2Q26, showing resilient demand for premium outdoor products.

  Weaknesses

  Risks to the target price include weaker-than-expected China operations and higher-than-expected inventory levels.

  Comparison

  The outdoor segment is more resilient than the broader slowdown in premium mall sales, and premium sports/outdoor brands are outperforming most general brands.

  Risks

  Weaker-than-expected China operations and higher-than-expected inventory levels; upside risks include stronger-than-expected sales momentum across segments and faster-than-expected DTC expansion.

• China premium shopping malls / luxury malls

  The core scenario of the report's channel checks, used to assess premium consumption trends.

  Strengths

  Luxury shopping malls still outperformed non-luxury shopping malls in 2Q26, and same-store sales growth in the food & beverage and entertainment segments was faster than for other brands.

  Weaknesses

  Sales and foot traffic have slowed since 2Q26 versus March, with growth moderating to the mid-single digits since June.

  Comparison

  Compared with non-luxury malls, they benefit more from high-net-worth consumers and the K-shaped recovery, but overall momentum is still below March.

  Risks

  The May improvement driven by promotional campaigns may not be sustainable; if the wealth effect or real estate stabilization weakens, optimistic expectations for 2H may fail to materialize.

Key data

• Report date2026-06-25The expert call was held on 2026-06-24.
• April same-store sales at leading premium mallsMid-single-digit YoY growthSlower than March's low-double-digit YoY same-store sales growth.
• April foot traffic at leading premium mallsLow-single-digit YoY growthSlower than March's high-single-digit YoY foot traffic growth.
• May performance at leading premium mallsBoth same-store sales and foot traffic grew by high-single digits YoYMainly driven by increased promotional campaigns.
• Performance at leading premium malls since JuneBoth same-store sales and foot traffic grew by mid-single digits YoYIndicates that sales momentum pulled back from May, but remained in positive growth.
• Gold jewelry segment SSSGLow-double-digit / mid-double-digit YoY decline in April and MayThe expert observed weakening momentum in the gold jewelry segment in 2Q26.
• Laopu Gold SSSGAbout +50% YoY in April, more than +60% YoY in MayContinued to outperform expectations in leading luxury shopping mall projects.
• Outdoor brand SSSGArc'teryx and Salomon both exceeded +20% YoY since 2Q26Both are brands under Amer Sports, indicating resilience in the outdoor segment.
• Laopu Gold rating and valuationBuy; target price HKD 1,114; current price HKD 367.80The target price is based on 22.5x FY26F P/E.
• Amer Sports Inc rating and valuationBuy; target price USD 49.30; current price USD 35.10The target price implies 16.3x F12M EV/EBITDA.

Impact & implications

From an investment implication perspective, the report's view on China's premium consumption chain is not simply bearish, but rather emphasizes structural divergence: overall sales growth at premium malls has slowed, but luxury shopping malls, leading premium gold jewelry names, and premium outdoor brands still show relative resilience. If the stock market wealth effect and stabilization in tier-1 city real estate continue, premium consumption may continue to outperform mass consumption in 2H26; otherwise, if the macro environment weakens or the wealth effect fades, the sales slowdown already seen in 2Q26 could spread further.

Risks

• China's K-shaped recovery in premium consumption is weaker than expected, and the sales slowdown at luxury malls broadens.
• The stock market wealth effect weakens, and affluent consumers' spending willingness falls short of expectations.
• Stabilization in real estate in tier-1 cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen is not sustained, dragging on confidence in premium consumption.
• A significant decline in gold prices, fashion risk higher than expected, or a weaker-than-expected macro environment may affect realization of Laopu Gold's target price.
• Amer Sports' China business may be weaker than expected or inventory levels may be higher than expected, potentially pressuring the rating and target price.
• The report's core conclusions rely on expert observations of projects under a leading shopping mall operator, with relatively high sample concentration, and therefore need to be validated against subsequent actual sales data.

What to watch

• Whether same-store sales and foot traffic at leading premium shopping malls in June to July can maintain YoY growth of mid-single digits or above.
• Whether the growth gap between luxury shopping malls and non-luxury shopping malls continues to widen.
• Whether the boost from May promotional campaigns to sales and foot traffic can continue into 2H.
• Whether Laopu Gold's high growth in premium mall projects can continue after June.
• Whether premium outdoor brands such as Arc'teryx and Salomon can continue to maintain more than 20% same-store sales growth.
• The impact of China's stock market performance and the stability of the Shanghai and Shenzhen real estate markets on affluent consumer confidence.