Weak Domestic Demand in April Auto Market; Overseas Exports Become Key Support
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Weak Domestic Demand in April Auto Market; Overseas Exports Become Key Support
Nomura points out that local auto market demand in China remained sluggish in April 2026, but strong overseas exports offset some pressure; the Beijing Auto Show indicates that large SUVs and smart driving technology have become competitive focuses, favoring automakers with new product cycles and overseas expansion capabilities.
- Overall wholesale sales in April were flat, local demand declined year-on-year, but overseas exports provided strong support.
- BYD sold 314,000 vehicles in April, overseas sales surged 71%, domestic sales declined but improved month-on-month.
- Performance of new forces like Leapmotor, Zeekr, and NIO diverged; Leapmotor saw a 73.9% YoY increase.
- Beijing Auto Show trend: large family SUVs were launched en masse, fast charging and long range became standard, L3/L4 smart driving accelerated rollout.
- LiDAR penetration rate is rapidly increasing, with half of new models equipped, and the entry-level price dropped below 90,000 RMB.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report analyzes the latest sales data of China's auto and EV market in April 2026 and industry trends reflected at the Beijing Auto Show. The core conclusion is that although strong growth in overseas exports supported overall wholesale sales of Chinese automakers, local market demand remains weak and the recovery is weaker than expected. The institution remains cautious about short-term local demand, considering policy certainty as a key variable. At the individual stock level, automakers with successful new product launch potential and strong overseas business are likely to stand out.
Core views
Demand side: Local market under pressure, exports become a bright spot. Dealership foot traffic has been weakening over the past two months, and order recovery trends are below expectations. Although the Beijing Auto Show and May Day holiday may bring short-term boosts, they are insufficient to reverse the year-on-year decline. However, overseas business has become an important buffer, for example, BYD's overseas sales in April increased 71% YoY, and Geely's new energy overseas sales surged 245%. Company performance diverged significantly. BYD sold 314,000 passenger vehicles in April, down 15.7% YoY but up 6.2% MoM; its domestic wholesale sales decline narrowed to 39% from 41% in March, and orders for models like the Song Ultra were positive, with the release of Blade Battery 2.0 capacity expected to drive subsequent improvement. Among new forces, Leapmotor performed best with wholesale sales of 71,400 units, up 73.9% YoY; Zeekr delivered 31,800 units, up 131.6% YoY; NIO delivered 29,400 units, up 22.8% YoY, with high-end model ES8 accounting for 44%; with the delivery of ES9 and Onvo L80 in May, performance is expected to improve quarter by quarter. XPeng delivered 31,000 units, up 13.1% MoM, with the upcoming GX model launch in May expected to bring incremental volume. Li Auto sold 34,100 units, slightly up YoY, focusing on delivery preparation for the new L9 Livis. Technology trends: Large-scale, fast charging, and high-level smart driving. The Beijing Auto Show showed that large family SUVs have become the flagship battlefield for major automakers, covering the mainstream 20-30 million RMB market and the luxury market above 50 million RMB. On the technology front, battery capacity is increasing to extend range, and ultra-fast charging technology (e.g., BYD Blade Battery 2.0, CATL Shenxing III/Qilin III) aims to match refueling experience of ICE vehicles. For smart driving, automakers are competing to deploy L3/L4 levels; XPeng plans to achieve L4 by 2026 and deploy Robotaxi, while Geely plans to launch Robotaxi services by 2027. On hardware, LiDAR penetration has significantly increased, with 50% of new models at the auto show equipped with single LiDAR and 20% with dual LiDAR, and the entry-level threshold has dropped significantly to below 90,000 RMB.
Analysis framework
The report uses a combination method of 'high-frequency data tracking + grassroots research + event-driven analysis.' First, by aggregating April wholesale sales data from major OEMs, it breaks down domestic and overseas contributions to quantify demand strength. Second, it combines expert conference calls and channel research (e.g., dealership foot traffic, order situation) to verify the real temperature of terminal demand, avoiding bias from only looking at wholesale data. Finally, it deeply interprets the Beijing Auto Show as an industry bellwether event, deducing the competitive landscape and technology iteration direction for the coming year from three dimensions: product form (large SUVs), technology path (fast charging, wire-controlled chassis), and intelligent progress (smart driving level, LiDAR configuration), thereby screening targets with alpha returns.
Methodology notes
Differentiate the different contributions of local demand and overseas exports to total sales
In analyzing the automotive industry, splitting total sales into 'domestic sales' and 'overseas sales' helps identify the true drivers of growth. This report finds that while total sales were flat, strong exports masked weak domestic demand; this split reveals structural differences within the industry.
Rapid increase in penetration rate of LiDAR and high-level smart driving functions
After early adoption, new technologies (such as LiDAR) enter a rapid penetration phase as costs decline (entry price below 90,000) and models proliferate. By counting the deployment rate on new models at the auto show, the report judges that this technology is in the steep upward phase of the S-curve, indicating upcoming volume growth for related supply chains.
Conduct sum-of-the-parts valuation for BYD's automotive and electronics businesses
For diversified companies, the report values different business segments (e.g., automotive manufacturing and electronics foundry) using appropriate valuation multiples (e.g., P/E), and then sums them to get the overall target price, more accurately reflecting the value of each part.
Use DCF model to value Li Auto and NIO
For automakers that are not yet fully profitable or are in a growth phase, the report uses discounted cash flow models, assuming parameters such as weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and perpetual growth rate, to estimate intrinsic value.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- BYD (1211 HK)Beneficiary: High overseas sales growth offsets domestic decline, new product cycle begins
- Strengths
- Overseas sales YoY +71%, Blade Battery 2.0 and ultra-fast charging tech received positive market feedback, domestic sales MoM improvement
- Weaknesses
- Domestic wholesale sales still down 39% YoY
- Comparison
- Compared to purely domestic automakers, has stronger global market buffer capability
- Risks
- Intensified market competition impacting margins; overseas expansion below expectations; technology upgrades insufficient to drive demand
- NIO (NIO US)Beneficiary: High-end product portfolio solid, new model deliveries bring incremental volume
- Strengths
- High proportion of high-end models like ES8, ES9 and Onvo L80 about to deliver, expected business improvement quarter by quarter
- Weaknesses
- April deliveries down 17.3% MoM
- Comparison
- Has strong brand power in luxury pure electric market
- Risks
- Capacity ramp-up below expectations; failure to capture market share for new models; operating expense improvement below expectations
- Li Auto (LI US)Neutral: In a new product transition period, focus on new L9 performance
- Strengths
- New L9 Livis about to deliver, expected to reshape luxury SUV benchmark
- Weaknesses
- April sales down 17.0% MoM, only slightly up YoY
- Comparison
- Facing more intense competition in extended-range/luxury SUV segment
- Risks
- Intensified competition in China's EV market; new L series model momentum below expectations; supply chain disruptions
Key data
- BYD April Sales314,100 unitsYoY -15.7%, MoM +6.2%; Overseas sales 134,500 units, YoY +71%
- Leapmotor April Sales71,400 unitsYoY +73.9%, MoM +42.7%, best performance among new forces
- Zeekr April Deliveries31,800 unitsYoY +131.6%, MoM +8.4%
- NIO April Deliveries29,400 unitsYoY +22.8%, MoM -17.3%; ES8 accounts for 44%
- Beijing Auto Show LiDAR Adoption Rate50% (single), 20% (dual)Cheapest equipped model priced below 90,000 RMB
Impact & implications
The report believes that short-term competition in the local market will intensify, especially in the large SUV segment. For investors, attention should be on automakers that can build brand barriers through technological innovation (e.g., ultra-fast charging, high-level smart driving) and successfully expand overseas markets. BYD, with overseas high growth and domestic new product cycles, is expected to gradually improve domestic shipment trends; NIO, due to its high-end product mix and new model deliveries, is expected to see quarterly financial improvement. Conversely, automakers relying solely on the local market and lacking new product catalysts may face greater market share loss risks.
Risks
- Further intensification of market competition, potentially negatively impacting profit margins and market share
- Overseas business expansion pace below expectations
- Demand pull from technology platform upgrades lower than expected
- New model capacity ramp-up unable to meet demand
- Unexpected supply chain disruptions
What to watch
- Year-on-year change trend in local market demand in subsequent months of 2026
- Elimination of policy uncertainty and specific policy support intensity
- Release of BYD Blade Battery 2.0 capacity and its support for more models
- Delivery data and market feedback for NIO ES9, Onvo L80, and Li Auto L9 Livis
- Actual penetration rate increase speed of LiDAR and high-level smart driving functions in production vehicles