China NEV orders fell 12% yoy and 14% wow in week 15, while battery prices remained broadly stable

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' weekly China NEV chartbook, focusing on the performance of China's passenger vehicle and NEV markets in week 15 of 2026, covering weekly orders for key NEV brands, upcoming industry events, dealer retail discounts, and upstream battery price dynamics. The core conclusion is that NEV orders weakened in the near term, but terminal discounts and battery-cell prices remained relatively stable.

Core views

In week 15, combined orders for key NEV makers fell 12% yoy and 14% wow, indicating pressure on near-term demand or delivery pace. At the brand level, Li Auto and Tesla still posted week-on-week growth, while HIMA declined slightly but remained relatively strong; on a year-to-date order basis, Nio, Tesla, and XPeng were relatively defensive. On pricing, NEV discounts were flat versus the previous week, while fuel vehicle discounts widened slightly week on week, suggesting more visible pricing pressure in fuel vehicles. Upstream, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices edged lower, but battery-cell prices remained stable.

Analysis framework

The report uses a weekly high-frequency tracking framework that combines automaker orders, CPCA retail and wholesale data, dealer terminal discounts, model launch schedules, and battery material prices to monitor demand, pricing competition, and cost-side changes in China's NEV market.

Methodology notes

• high-frequency industry trackingweekly order tracking

  weekly orders of key NEV makers

  By comparing the year-on-year and week-on-week changes in weekly orders for key NEV makers, the report assesses near-term demand, channel momentum, and relative brand performance.

• terminal price monitoringdealer discount tracking

  average dealer discount versus MSRP

  Dealer discount changes for NEVs and fuel vehicles are used to observe pricing competition intensity; wider discounts usually indicate greater terminal pricing pressure.

• supply-chain cost trackingupstream battery price dynamics

  battery-grade lithium carbonate and cell prices

  Key battery material and cell prices are tracked to assess cost pressure and margin implications across the NEV supply chain.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China NEV OEMs

  core coverage universe

  Strengths

  High-frequency orders can quickly reflect marginal changes in demand, and Li Auto and Tesla showed relatively strong week-on-week performance.

  Weaknesses

  Combined orders in week 15 declined both yoy and wow, indicating near-term demand pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with fuel vehicles, NEV discounts were stable week on week and pricing pressure was temporarily smaller.

  Risks

  If orders continue to decline or discounts widen, revenue growth and margin expectations could be affected.

• fuel vehicle OEMs

  peer comparison asset

  Strengths

  Fuel vehicles still have substantial room for terminal discounts to support sales.

  Weaknesses

  The average dealer discount widened to 19.61% week on week, indicating more visible terminal pricing pressure.

  Comparison

  Fuel vehicle discounts are significantly higher than the 7.52% average discount for NEVs.

  Risks

  High discounts may weigh on profitability and intensify substitution pressure from NEVs.

• battery materials and cell supply chain

  upstream cost variable

  Strengths

  Stable week-on-week cell prices help keep cost expectations steady for automakers and battery companies.

  Weaknesses

  Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices edged lower, which may indicate continued supply-demand pressure in materials.

  Comparison

  Material prices fell slightly while cell prices remained stable, showing that price transmission is not synchronous.

  Risks

  If lithium prices keep falling, upstream material companies' profits may be affected; if cell prices are cut later, battery companies' gross margins may come under pressure.

Key data

• Combined orders for key NEV makers in week 15-14% wow / -12% yoyWeek 15 of 2026, covering April 6 to April 12.
• Top-performing brands on a week-on-week basisLi Auto +10%, Tesla +5%, HIMA -2% wowRelative performance for the key brands highlighted in the report.
• Relatively defensive brands on a year-to-date order basisNio +32%, Tesla -14%, XPeng -19% yoyDescribed in the report as relatively defensive year-to-date order growth.
• CPCA passenger vehicle retail sales from April 1 to 6149k units, -9% yoy / -20% momPassenger vehicle wholesale sales in the same period were 153k units, -28% yoy / -17% mom.
• CPCA NEV retail sales from April 1 to 686k units, -24% yoy / +3% momNEV wholesale sales in the same period were 73k units, -39% yoy / -14% mom.
• NEV penetration rate57.7% / 47.5%The report says penetration rebounded from April 1 to 6, compared with 47.3% / 48.6% in March.
• Average NEV dealer discount7.52%As of April 11, unchanged from 7.52% on April 5, and above 6.95% on April 14, 2025.
• Average BYD dealer discount4.32%As of April 11, unchanged from April 5, and above 3.23% on April 14, 2025.
• Average fuel vehicle dealer discount19.61%As of April 11, above 19.55% on April 5 and below 22.10% on April 14, 2025.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceRmb155.5k/ton, -0.6% wowThe report says battery-cell prices remained stable on a week-on-week basis.

Impact & implications

The near-term decline in orders may weigh on the market's view of NEV demand strength, but the fact that NEV discounts did not widen further and battery-cell prices remained stable means price competition and cost pressure have not deteriorated materially for now. Fuel vehicle discounts continued to widen, showing that traditional fuel vehicle channel pressure remains high. Upcoming model launches, the Beijing Auto Show, and monthly sales data will be important catalysts for judging demand recovery and brand differentiation.

Risks

• Weekly order data can be highly volatile and may be affected by holidays, promotion timing, new model production schedules, or channel statistical conventions.
• The report text contains some OCR noise, and the disclosure pages and some chart information are incomplete.
• If the yoy and wow declines in NEV orders persist, short-term industry demand confidence may weaken.
• If terminal discounts widen again, price competition could intensify and compress OEM margins.
• Volatility in upstream battery material prices may affect profit distribution across the supply chain.

What to watch

• April 15: XPeng GX launch.
• April 16: IM Motors LS8, Leapmotor D19, and VW ID.UNYX 08 launches.
• April 17: Zeekr 8X launch.
• April 21: Nio ONVO L80 launch.
• April 24 to May 3: 2026 Beijing Auto Show.
• May 1: monthly NEV sales release.
• May 10 to 11: CPCA releases passenger vehicle and NEV industry wholesale and retail sales data, including model-by-model breakdowns.