Chinese automakers' overseas sales weakened month on month in February, but regional divergence was clear

Overview

This report focuses on the overseas sales destinations of Chinese automakers in February 2026, covering the registration performance of BYD, Geely, and GWM across markets such as Brazil, Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, Russia, Mexico, Europe, Latin America, ASEAN, and Oceania. The core conclusion is that overseas sales were generally weak on a month-on-month basis in February, but performance diverged clearly across automakers and regions.

Core views

BYD's overseas registrations fell 20-25% month on month, with weakness mainly coming from ASEAN, especially Thailand, which pulled back after a high January base, while Brazil and Europe remained relatively strong; Geely's overseas registrations fell 0-5% month on month, with Russia and Europe under pressure, while Australia continued to accelerate on the back of ZEEKR deliveries; GWM's overseas registrations fell 5-10% month on month, mainly due to weakness in ASEAN, with softer performance in Russia and Thailand and relative stability elsewhere. The report also notes that rising gasoline prices may increase EV interest in ASEAN and Oceania.

Analysis framework

The report uses a regional registration-volume and month-on-month change tracking framework, breaking overseas sales down by automaker and major destination markets, comparing each automaker's sales contribution, month-on-month changes, and relative market performance in core overseas countries and regions, and explaining short-term fluctuations by combining vehicle deliveries, shipping timing, and energy-price factors.

Methodology notes

• Sales trackingMonth-on-month analysis of overseas registrations

  Break down February overseas registrations by automaker and region, and observe month-on-month changes.

  This method is used to identify which countries or regions are driving short-term sales changes, such as BYD being dragged by ASEAN, Geely by Russia and Europe, and GWM by weakness in ASEAN.

• Relative performanceMarket comparison analysis

  Compare company sales changes with overall local market changes.

  For example, BYD's Brazil sales rose 17% month on month, outperforming the Brazilian market's 12% month-on-month growth, indicating stronger relative performance in that market.

• Demand driversGasoline prices and EV interest

  Rising gasoline prices may increase EV demand interest in crude-oil-import-dependent regions.

  The report tends to agree that higher gasoline prices will boost EV interest in ASEAN and Oceania, especially in markets with a high reliance on crude oil imports.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BYD Company Limited（1211.HK/002594.SZ）

  One of the core coverage names; the report tracks its overseas registrations and regional sales structure.

  Strengths

  Brazil sales rose 17% month on month to about 11,400 units, outperforming the local market; Europe sales were close to 30,000 units and remained resilient; Seagull sales were solid.

  Weaknesses

  February overseas registrations fell 20-25% month on month, ASEAN sales were weak, and Thailand fell back to below 1,000 units after a high January.

  Comparison

  Compared with Geely and GWM, BYD showed more resilience in Europe and Brazil, but its month-on-month decline in February was larger.

  Risks

  ASEAN demand volatility, shipping timing disruptions, and a high-base pullback in regional sales.

• Geely Automobile Holdings（0175.HK）

  One of the core coverage names; the report tracks its overseas registrations and performance in key markets.

  Strengths

  Australia sales continued to accelerate, reaching about 1,500 units in February and rising 30% month on month, supported by ZEEKR deliveries.

  Weaknesses

  February overseas registrations fell 0-5% month on month, while sales in Russia and Europe weakened.

  Comparison

  The month-on-month decline was smaller than BYD's and GWM's, but its main market, Russia, remained under pressure.

  Risks

  Weak demand in Russia, softer Europe sales, and high reliance on a small number of markets for overseas growth.

• Great Wall Motor Company Limited（2333.HK/601633.SS）

  One of the core coverage names; the report tracks its overseas registrations and regional performance.

  Strengths

  Russia, Australia, and Brazil together contributed about 70% of overseas sales, while other regions were broadly stable.

  Weaknesses

  February overseas registrations fell 5-10% month on month; Russia sales fell 4% month on month; Thailand sales fell more than 60% month on month.

  Comparison

  GWM's overseas sales structure is more concentrated in Russia, Australia, and Brazil, so ASEAN volatility has a clear drag on short-term performance.

  Risks

  High regional concentration, sharp volatility in ASEAN sales, and weakness in the Russian market.

Key data

• BYD February overseas registrationsDown 20-25% month on monthMainly dragged by weaker ASEAN sales; Europe and Latin America remained stable.
• BYD Brazil salesAbout 11,400 units, up 17% month on monthOutperformed Brazil's 12% month-on-month market growth, supported by solid Seagull sales.
• BYD's major overseas market contributionBrazil, Australia, and Indonesia together accounted for about 40%Refers to BYD's overseas sales structure in February 2026.
• BYD Europe salesClose to 30,000 unitsDescribed in the report as remaining resilient.
• Geely February overseas registrationsDown 0-5% month on monthWeakness in Russia and Europe was the main drag.
• Geely Russia sales5,800 units, down 5% month on monthThe Russian market overall fell 1% month on month.
• Geely Australia salesAbout 1,500 units, up 30% month on monthA record level, supported by solid ZEEKR deliveries.
• Geely's major overseas market contributionRussia, Mexico, Australia, and Indonesia together accounted for 65%Refers to Geely's overseas sales structure in February 2026.
• GWM February overseas registrationsDown 5-10% month on monthAffected by weaker ASEAN sales.
• GWM's major overseas market contributionRussia, Australia, and Brazil together accounted for about 70%Refers to GWM's overseas sales structure in February 2026.
• GWM Russia salesDown 4% month on monthRussia is one of its important overseas markets.
• GWM Thailand salesDown more than 60% month on monthA key reflection of weakness in ASEAN.

Impact & implications

In the short term, Chinese automakers' overseas sales are not growing in lockstep, but are instead influenced by shipping timing, regional demand, the local market environment, and vehicle delivery cadence. BYD's resilience in Europe and Brazil, Geely's acceleration in Australia, and GWM's sharp pullback in Thailand suggest that investors need to assess the quality of overseas expansion by region and brand rather than looking only at total volume. In the medium term, if rising gasoline prices persist, they may improve the growth momentum for EV adoption in markets such as ASEAN and Oceania.

Risks

• Monthly overseas registration volatility can be significant and may be affected by shipping timing, auto show schedules, and local inventory levels.
• Short-term demand weakness in ASEAN affected both BYD and GWM.
• Weak sales in Russia and Europe weighed on Geely, while declining Russia sales also affected GWM.
• The report discloses that Morgan Stanley has or seeks business relationships with a number of covered companies; investors should treat this research as only one factor in investment decisions.
• The research is based on public information and does not constitute personalized investment advice; past performance is not indicative of future performance.

What to watch

• Whether BYD's Thailand sales recover after the Bangkok International Motor Show and whether ASEAN demand normalizes from shipping timing disruptions.
• Whether BYD's sales resilience in Brazil and Europe can be sustained.
• Whether Geely's Australia sales and ZEEKR deliveries can continue to grow.
• Whether Geely's Russia and Europe markets weaken further.
• Whether GWM's sharp sales decline in Thailand rebounds, and the stability of its three core markets: Russia, Australia, and Brazil.
• The impact of gasoline price changes in ASEAN and Oceania on EV demand interest.