May HDD/SSD data show data center storage demand remains at elevated levels

Overview

This report tracks monthly HDD/SSD data related to Japanese electronic components, with a focus on data center storage demand. It argues that data center storage is likely to remain tiered across SSDs, HDDs, and tape; driven by high production volumes and rising capacity per drive, total shipment capacity for NL HDDs and enterprise SSDs still has room for continued growth.

Core views

The core view is to maintain a positive stance on capacity growth for data center NL HDDs and enterprise SSDs. Although the 2026 forecast for total HDD shipment capacity was slightly lowered from 2,058.2EB last month to 2,055.5EB, it still implies 26.3% YoY growth; meanwhile, the 2026 forecast for total SSD shipment capacity was raised from 675.30EB to 759.36EB, implying 52.5% YoY growth. The report emphasizes that a higher shipment mix of high-capacity products allows capacity growth to continue outpacing unit shipment growth.

Analysis framework

The report is based on TSR monthly production, shipment, and capacity data, breaking the market down by HDD vs. SSD, data center vs. non-data center, and unit shipments vs. capacity shipments, while comparing month-over-month changes, year-over-year changes, historical annual data, and revisions to 2026 forecasts.

Methodology notes

• industry supply-demand trackingTSR monthly HDD/SSD production and shipment data

  Use monthly production, shipment volume, and shipment capacity to observe the health of the storage industry

  The report uses TSR data to compare May actual data, historical annual data, and 2026 forecasts to judge whether data center HDD/SSD demand is sustaining elevated levels.

• capacity mix analysisComparison of unit shipments and capacity shipments

  Capacity growth may outpace unit shipment growth

  The report believes the share of high-capacity products is rising in NL HDDs and enterprise SSDs, so total shipment capacity growth may continue to exceed unit shipment growth.

• submarket analysisData center storage tiering

  SSDs, HDDs, and tape play different roles in data center storage

  The report judges that data center storage may continue to be tiered across SSDs, HDDs, and tape, rather than being fully replaced by a single medium.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• enterprise SSD

  One of the core beneficiary categories of data center storage growth

  Strengths

  Both unit shipments and capacity shipments grew significantly in May, and the 2026 capacity forecast was raised to 509.33EB.

  Weaknesses

  Overall SSD unit shipments declined slightly YoY, indicating growth is concentrated mainly in enterprise and high-capacity mix rather than synchronized expansion across all SSD subsegments.

  Comparison

  Compared with HDDs, enterprise SSDs saw a more significant upward revision to the 2026 capacity forecast, but their positioning remains tiered and complementary with HDDs and tape.

  Risks

  If data center procurement slows or penetration of high-capacity products comes in below expectations, capacity growth forecasts could be revised downward.

• NL HDD

  An important category carrying large-capacity data center storage

  Strengths

  May data center NL HDD production rose 14.8% YoY and 4.0% MoM, and the 2026 capacity forecast remains for high growth.

  Weaknesses

  Growth in total HDD unit production is slower than capacity growth, indicating industry growth relies more on increases in capacity per drive.

  Comparison

  Compared with enterprise SSDs, NL HDDs are more oriented toward high-capacity, cost-sensitive data center storage scenarios.

  Risks

  Declining SSD costs, traffic diversion to tape storage, or volatility in cloud vendor procurement could affect the demand pace for NL HDDs.

• HDD component supply chain

  Affected by HDD production, capacity mix, and manufacturers' in-house production ratios

  Strengths

  The report shows HDD supply chain, HDD parts suppliers' market share, and HDD heads/media in-house production trends, indicating the components segment is highly correlated with the HDD cycle.

  Weaknesses

  Some HDD heads/media segments have relatively high in-house production ratios, which may limit the addressable market for external suppliers.

  Comparison

  The elasticity of the component supply chain usually lags or amplifies changes in HDD finished-drive production and the mix of high-capacity products.

  Risks

  If finished-drive makers raise in-house production ratios or product mix changes are unfavorable to external suppliers, components may benefit less than HDD capacity growth.

• Seagate, Western Digital, Toshiba

  Major HDD manufacturers linked to changes in NL HDD production capacity and shipment capacity

  Strengths

  The report tables track HDD production and capacity shipments of major manufacturers, showing that data center NL HDDs still have growth support.

  Weaknesses

  Performance diverges across manufacturers and form-factor categories, with traditional non-data-center categories such as 2.5-inch and 3.5-inch ATA remaining weak.

  Comparison

  Data center NL HDDs are stronger than some traditional HDD applications, and manufacturers' benefits depend on product mix.

  Risks

  If the decline in traditional HDDs outpaces NL HDD growth, or if concentration in data center orders changes, earnings elasticity among manufacturers may diverge.

Key data

• 2026 forecast for data center enterprise SSD shipment capacity509.33EB, up 94.0% YoYTSR raised the forecast from 476.1EB last month.
• 2026 forecast for data center NL HDD shipment capacity1,841EB, up 30.1% YoYThe report maintains its view of capacity growth for data center NL HDDs.
• 2026 forecast for total HDD shipment capacity2,055.5EB, up 26.3% YoYSlightly lowered from 2,058.2EB last month, but still above 2025's 1,627.9EB.
• 2026 forecast for total SSD shipment capacity759.36EB, up 52.5% YoYSignificantly raised from 675.30EB last month; 2025 was 498.0EB.
• May data center NL HDD production7.07 million units, up 14.8% YoY and 4.0% MoMTSR forecasts 2026 NL HDD production at 84.37 million units, up 12.8% YoY.
• May enterprise SSD shipment capacity41.35EB, up 138.8% YoY and 9.7% MoMIt was 17.32EB in the same period last year and 37.70EB last month.
• May total HDD production11.26 million units, up about 6.9% YoY and 0.7% MoMTSR forecasts 2026 HDD production at 134.85 million units, up 4.1% YoY.
• May total SSD shipments29.64 million units, down 0.5% YoY and up 1.5% MoMUnit shipment performance was weaker than enterprise SSD capacity shipment performance.
• May enterprise SSD unit shipments5.83 million units, up 45.8% YoY and 2.6% MoMTSR forecasts 2026 enterprise SSD unit shipments at 72.31 million units, up 28.0% YoY.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, the continued strength in data center storage demand is more favorable for companies or assets tied to high-capacity enterprise SSDs, NL HDDs, and related component supply chains. The report also notes a divergence between unit shipment growth and capacity shipment growth, suggesting investment judgments should focus on high-capacity product penetration, data center capital expenditure, and the structural division of roles between HDDs and SSDs.

Risks

• TSR forecasts may still be adjusted with changes in monthly orders, capacity, and customer procurement pace.
• Unit shipment performance for SSDs and HDDs is weaker than capacity shipment performance; if the increase in the mix of high-capacity products slows, capacity growth may come in below expectations.
• Changes in data center capital expenditure, cloud vendor inventories, and AI-related storage demand will affect demand for enterprise SSDs and NL HDDs.
• The tiered relationship among SSDs, HDDs, and tape may change, and technology substitution or cost-curve shifts could affect each category's share.
• The HDD component supply chain is also affected by changes in finished-drive makers' in-house production ratios and supplier share.

What to watch

• Whether subsequent TSR monthly data continue to raise the 2026 enterprise SSD capacity forecast.
• Whether NL HDD production and shipment capacity can maintain double-digit YoY growth.
• Changes in the share of high-capacity HDDs and enterprise SSDs in total shipments.
• Data center customer procurement pace, inventories, and cloud capex signals.
• Changes in external supplier share and in-house production ratios for key components such as HDD heads and media.