China Battery June Monthly Monitor: xEV and ESS Battery Demand Continues High Growth

Overview

This report, China Battery Monthly Monitor: June 2026, published by Deutsche Bank, covers monthly production, sales, exports, installations, and upstream battery material prices for China's EV batteries and energy storage batteries. The report is positioned as an industry update and chartbook, focusing on monthly data to observe the health of China's battery industry chain rather than issuing investment ratings on a single company.

Core views

Based on the disclosed tables, China's battery industry chain maintained strong growth in June: total production, total sales, and exports of xEV and ESS batteries all achieved high double-digit year-over-year growth, with ESS sales growing faster; LFP accounted for a relatively high share across production, sales, exports, and installation mix, while NCM also maintained growth but at a relatively milder pace. Installation data indicate that leading battery makers remain the core focus within the industry chain, with CATL, BYD, CALB, EVE, Gotion, and Zenergy all included in the monthly tracking.

Analysis framework

The report uses a monthly monitoring framework, breaking the battery industry chain into dimensions such as production, sales, exports, installations, and material prices, while distinguishing among LFP, NCM, and other battery types by product type, and also tracking installation performance by battery maker. Jun-26, year over year, month over month, cumulative 1H26, and cumulative year over year are the core reporting metrics in the data presentation.

Methodology notes

• Industry monthly trackingProduction, sales, export, and installation monitoring

  Use production, sales, exports, and installations to measure the health of China's xEV and ESS battery industry chain.

  This framework is suitable for observing demand strength, inventory, and overseas expansion momentum, but the report excerpt does not disclose complete data sources, differences in statistical methodology, or specific price data values.

• Product mix analysisLFP/NCM product-level breakdown

  Break down production, sales, exports, and installation data by LFP, NCM, and other battery types.

  A product-level breakdown helps assess growth differences across technology routes. In the June data, LFP showed larger scale and faster growth across multiple metrics.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China's xEV and ESS battery industry chain

  Core coverage target

  Strengths

  Production, sales, exports, and installations all maintained year-over-year growth, indicating strong demand and industry chain activity.

  Weaknesses

  The report excerpt mainly provides volume growth and lacks profitability, inventory, and corporate earnings data.

  Comparison

  ESS sales posted faster year-over-year growth than xEV battery sales, and LFP's scale and growth were overall stronger than NCM.

  Risks

  Price declines, overcapacity, changes in export policies, raw material price fluctuations, and intensifying competition.

• LFP batteries

  Main product route

  Strengths

  In June, LFP production reached 169.2GWh, xEV sales were 99.8GWh, and xEV installations were 63.7GWh, all significantly higher than the corresponding NCM volumes.

  Weaknesses

  If industry price competition intensifies, high growth may not necessarily translate into improved profitability.

  Comparison

  Compared with NCM, LFP held a larger share in June production, sales, and installations, and posted higher year-over-year growth across multiple metrics.

  Risks

  Changes in technology routes, material price volatility, and low-price competition may affect returns.

• NCM batteries

  Alternative technology route

  Strengths

  June NCM production, sales, exports, and installations all maintained year-over-year growth.

  Weaknesses

  Compared with LFP, June volume was smaller, and month-over-month performance in some metrics was weaker than LFP.

  Comparison

  NCM production of 36.6GWh was lower than LFP's 169.2GWh; NCM installations of 12.7GWh were lower than LFP's 63.7GWh.

  Risks

  Demand mix shifting toward LFP, cost competition, and upstream material price volatility.

• CATL, BYD, CALB, EVE, Gotion, Zenergy

  Tracked installation-volume manufacturers

  Strengths

  The report lists June installations and 1H cumulative installation data for multiple battery makers, making it easier to observe differences in share and growth.

  Weaknesses

  The report excerpt does not provide complete market share, pricing, or profitability indicators.

  Comparison

  CATL's June installations were 32.6GWh, higher than BYD's 14.1GWh as well as CALB, EVE, Gotion, and Zenergy.

  Risks

  Customer mix, pricing pressure, capacity utilization, and changes in technology routes may lead to divergence in manufacturer performance.

Key data

• June total xEV and ESS battery production206.0GWh; YoY +59%; MoM +7%1H26 cumulative total of 1,068.9GWh, YoY +53%.
• June LFP production169.2GWh; YoY +70%; MoM +9%1H26 cumulative total of 874.8GWh, YoY +58%.
• June NCM production36.6GWh; YoY +24%; MoM +3%1H26 cumulative total of 193.3GWh, YoY +34%.
• June total xEV and ESS battery sales196.0GWh; YoY +49%; MoM +8%1H26 cumulative total of 979.5GWh, YoY +49%.
• June ESS battery sales62.6GWh; YoY +67%; MoM +13%1H26 cumulative total of 318.1GWh, YoY +83%.
• June xEV battery sales133.4GWh; YoY +42%; MoM +5%1H26 cumulative total of 661.2GWh, YoY +36%.
• June total xEV and ESS battery exports36.2GWh; YoY +48%; MoM +24%1H26 cumulative total of 181.3GWh, YoY +42%.
• June xEV battery installations76.5GWh; YoY +31%; MoM +6%1H26 cumulative total of 335.6GWh, YoY +12%.
• June CATL domestic installations32.6GWh; YoY +28%; MoM -1%1H26 cumulative total of 154.3GWh, YoY +20%.
• June BYD domestic installations14.1GWh; YoY +13%; MoM +19%1H26 cumulative total of 57.4GWh, YoY -18%.

Impact & implications

The data indicate that China's battery chain remained in an expansion phase in June 2026, with improving month-over-month ESS energy storage demand and exports representing important marginal changes. LFP's scale and growth advantage may continue to affect allocation across materials, equipment, and vehicle supply chains; at the same time, diverging year-over-year and month-over-month performance among different manufacturers in the installation data suggests investors need to assess the quality of industry growth in conjunction with price trends, share changes, and profitability.

Risks

• Battery and material price fluctuations may weaken the earnings leverage brought by volume growth.
• Excessively rapid industry capacity expansion may lead to lower capacity utilization and intensified price competition.
• Export growth is affected by overseas demand, trade policy, tariffs, and localized supply chain requirements.
• As a monthly chart-tracking report, it lacks complete visibility into profitability, inventory, and orders, and cannot serve alone as an investment conclusion.

What to watch

• Whether ESS battery sales and exports can maintain growth rates above those of xEV batteries.
• Structural changes between LFP and NCM in production, sales, exports, and installations.
• Changes in installation share among manufacturers such as CATL, BYD, CALB, EVE, Gotion, and Zenergy.
• The impact of price trends in lithium products, precursors, anode materials, and separators on industry chain margins.
• Whether the month-over-month improvement in China's battery exports is sustainable, and whether the overseas policy environment changes.