Week 20 new energy vehicle orders in China rebound WoW, with new models as the main driver

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' weekly chart tracker for China's passenger vehicle and new energy vehicle markets, focusing on key NEV brand orders, upcoming events, NEV/ICE dealer discounts, and upstream battery prices. The core conclusion is that in Week 20 of 2026, NEV orders returned to growth, mainly driven by new models such as the Luxeed V9 EREV MPV, ONVO L80, and the Li Auto L9 facelift.

Core views

New energy vehicle demand improved marginally, with aggregate orders for key automakers up 4% WoW and 11% YoY in Week 20. At the brand level, both Nio and Li Auto posted strong WoW growth of 113%, while HIMA rose 11% WoW; on a year-to-date basis, Nio, HIMA, and Tesla were relatively defensive at +40%, +12%, and -3% YoY, respectively. On pricing, NEV dealer discounts widened slightly WoW, while ICE discounts narrowed WoW, indicating different directions in terminal pricing pressure for new energy and fuel vehicles. Upstream, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices edged up slightly, while mainstream prismatic cell prices remained stable.

Analysis framework

The report uses a weekly high-frequency tracking approach, placing orders, retail/wholesale sales, dealer discounts, model events, and battery industry chain prices in one framework to assess short-term changes in demand, competition, and costs in China's new energy vehicle market.

Methodology notes

• Industry high-frequency trackingWeekly New Energy Vehicle Orders and Price Tracking

  Weekly order, terminal discount, and upstream battery price linkage observation

  By combining weekly orders from key automakers, CPCA passenger vehicle and NEV retail/wholesale data, NEV and ICE dealer discounts, and lithium carbonate and cell prices, the report assesses short-term changes in demand momentum, price competition, and costs.

• Disclosure appendixGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite score

  Goldman Sachs discloses that its equity research uses GS Factor Profile to compare individual stocks' growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite attributes versus the market and peers; the main body of this report is a weekly industry chart and does not disclose specific stock factor scores.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Nio

  Key NEV brand; weekly orders and year-to-date orders are tracked

  Strengths

  Week 20 orders rose 113% WoW, year-to-date orders were up 40% YoY, and 1Q26 earnings will be released on May 21, with the ES9 to launch on May 27.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide profitability, cash flow, or valuation details, and the rapid order growth may be affected by a low base for new models or launch timing.

  Comparison

  Together with Li Auto, it was one of the top WoW growth brands in Week 20; year-to-date performance is better than Tesla's -3% YoY.

  Risks

  Sustainability of new model orders, conversion to deliveries, price competition, and uncertainty around earnings releases.

• Li Auto

  Key NEV brand, affected by new models such as the L9 facelift

  Strengths

  Week 20 orders rose 113% WoW, and the report explicitly attributes the growth to new model launches.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide year-to-date order growth, and terminal competition may affect margins.

  Comparison

  WoW growth was tied with Nio for the lead and was higher than HIMA's +11%.

  Risks

  1Q26 earnings release, the sustained pull from facelift models, and widening industry discounts.

• HIMA

  Key NEV brand/ecosystem; weekly orders and year-to-date orders are tracked

  Strengths

  Week 20 orders rose 11% WoW, and year-to-date orders were up 12% YoY, showing relatively defensive performance.

  Weaknesses

  WoW growth was lower than Nio's and Li Auto's.

  Comparison

  Year-to-date YoY growth was below Nio's +40% but better than Tesla's -3%.

  Risks

  New vehicle supply pace, competition among brands, and channel pricing pressure.

• BYD

  Leading NEV brand and a tracked name for price discounts

  Strengths

  As of May 16, the average dealer discount was 4.48%, below the industry NEV average of 7.61% and below 7.72% in the same period last year.

  Weaknesses

  The report discloses several upcoming model and technology events, so the near-term impact of new products and promotions on orders still needs to be observed.

  Comparison

  BYD's discount is below the industry average for new energy vehicles, indicating stronger price discipline.

  Risks

  Lower-than-expected new product launches, an industry price war, and execution risk in converting technology events into market expectations.

• Tesla

  NEV brand, compared on year-to-date order performance

  Strengths

  It is listed as one of the relatively defensive brands in year-to-date orders.

  Weaknesses

  Year-to-date orders were down 3% YoY, still negative growth.

  Comparison

  Year-to-date performance was weaker than Nio's +40% and HIMA's +12%.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition in China, discount pressure, and relative weakness in the product cycle.

• Battery-grade lithium carbonate and prismatic LFP/NCM cells

  Upstream cost variables for new energy vehicles

  Strengths

  Prismatic LFP and NCM cell prices were stable WoW, helping near-term cost visibility.

  Weaknesses

  Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rose 0.5% WoW, indicating a marginal increase on the cost side.

  Comparison

  Raw material prices rose slightly while cell prices were stable, showing that cost pass-through is not yet obvious.

  Risks

  Further increases in lithium prices, cost pass-through to cells and vehicles, and inventory cycle impacts from demand volatility.

Key data

• Aggregate orders for key NEV automakers in Week 20+4% wow / +11% yoyDriven by new model launches, including the Luxeed V9 EREV MPV, ONVO L80, and Li Auto L9 facelift.
• Nio / Li Auto / HIMA weekly order growth+113% / +113% / +11% wowThe report says these were the brands with the highest WoW growth.
• Relatively defensive brands in year-to-date ordersNio +40% yoy; HIMA +12% yoy; Tesla -3% yoyThey showed more resilience relative to other brands.
• Passenger vehicle retail/wholesale sales from May 1 to 10Retail 407k units, -21% yoy / +36% mom; wholesale 320k units, -23% yoy / +7% momData from the CPCA weekly trend.
• NEV retail/wholesale sales from May 1 to 10Retail 226k units, -13% yoy / +27% mom; wholesale 193k units, -16% yoy / +23% momDuring the same period, NEV penetration was 55.5%/60.3%, versus 62.8%/57.3% in April.
• Average NEV dealer discount7.61%As of May 16, 2026, wider than 7.45% on May 9 and below 9.09% on May 26, 2025.
• Average BYD dealer discount4.48%As of May 16, 2026, unchanged from May 9 and below 7.72% on May 26, 2025.
• Average fuel vehicle dealer discount19.50%As of May 16, 2026, narrower than 19.72% on May 9 and below 23.28% on May 6, 2025.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceRmb191.0k/ton, +0.5% WoWPrismatic LFP and prismatic NCM cell prices were stable WoW.

Impact & implications

New model launches directly boosted weekly orders, indicating that the product cycle remains an important driver of short-term fluctuations in China's new energy vehicle sales. If the pace of new model launches continues, it may support brand-level share divergence; however, wider dealer discounts suggest that NEV terminal competition remains intense, and rising lithium carbonate prices could have a marginal impact on cost expectations across the industry chain.

Risks

• Weekly orders may be affected by the timing of new model launches and a low base, and may not represent a sustainable trend.
• Wider dealer discounts for new energy vehicles indicate continued terminal pricing pressure.
• Passenger vehicle and NEV growth remained negative YoY in early May, showing that the demand recovery is uneven.
• Rising battery-grade lithium carbonate prices may create cost-side disturbances.
• The report does not provide individual stock ratings or target prices, so it should not be used directly as stock investment advice.

What to watch

• May 18: BYD Denza N9 fast-charging model launch.
• May 20: Official launch of XPeng GX.
• May 21: BYD Yuan Plus facelift launch and Nio 1Q26 earnings.
• May 27: Official launch of Nio ES9.
• May 28: Li Auto and XPeng 1Q26 earnings, as well as BYD technology event.
• June 1: Monthly sales releases for new energy vehicle automakers.
• June 10-11: CPCA releases passenger vehicle and NEV industry and model wholesale and retail data.