Reiterate Overweight on Victory Giant Technology, with short-term headwinds already fully priced in

Overview

This report focuses on Victory Giant Technology-H’s competitive position in the AI PCB cycle. JPMorgan acknowledges the company faces short-term challenges including delays in new project ramp-up, uncertainty over initial Vera Rubin share, and timing risk around Kyber mass production, but believes its capacity expansion and technological capabilities in high-end PCB, AI, and high-performance computing can still support wallet share and earnings growth.

Core views

The core view is that the allocation of share in AI PCB projects over the next two to three years will depend more on high-quality manufacturing capacity than on initial share in any single product generation. With continued capacity expansion and technological leadership, Victory Giant Technology is expected to regain share during the large-scale mass production phase. The report maintains an Overweight rating but lowers the Jun-27 target price to HK$500 to reflect project ramp-up and Kyber uncertainty.

Analysis framework

The report combines supply chain checks, project ramp-up timing, AI server PCB complexity, customer project demand, earnings forecast revisions, and relative valuation analysis, using 12-month rolling forward P/E as the basis for the target price.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methods12-month rolling forward P/E

  Derives the Jun-27 target price of HK$500 based on 22x 12-month rolling forward P/E.

  The valuation multiple was lowered from 24x to 22x, mainly reflecting uncertainty around project ramp-up; this valuation is about 15% below the average 2027 level of A-share peers, broadly in line with the year-to-date H/A discount, and consistent with the average level of global peers.

• Fundamental researchSupply chain checks

  Track the progress of Vera Rubin and Kyber projects and changes in supplier share.

  Supply chain checks indicate that Vera Rubin PCB mass-production progress is slightly slower than previously expected, but the overall cabinet launch plan remains largely unchanged; Kyber is still in the multi-technical-path testing stage.

• Scenario analysisDemand and share offset analysis

  Assess whether the earnings impact of a Kyber delay can be offset by demand from other projects.

  The report believes that if Kyber commercializes more slowly than expected, stronger demand for NVDA’s current-generation products as well as higher revenue and share from Google projects could partially offset the impact on Victory Giant Technology’s earnings.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• 2476.HK

  Research target

  Strengths

  A global leader in AI and high-performance computing PCB, with strong high-end manufacturing capability, continued capacity expansion, and expected 2025-2028 earnings CAGR of 73%.

  Weaknesses

  In the short term, it is affected by initial Vera Rubin share, delayed project ramp-up, and uncertainty around Kyber mass production.

  Comparison

  The Jun-27 target price implies 22x 12-month rolling forward P/E, about 15% below the average 2027 valuation of A-share peers and close to the average level of global peers.

  Risks

  Uncertainty in capacity expansion execution and margins, share loss due to competition, raw material price volatility, supply chain risk, and geopolitical risk.

• 300476.SS

  Related A-share security of the same company

  Strengths

  Backed by the same company fundamentals as the H-share target and driven by the AI PCB demand cycle.

  Weaknesses

  The report’s core valuation and rating target is 2476.HK; the A-share is included only as a related security and valuation comparison reference.

  Comparison

  The target valuation for the H-share is about 15% below the average 2027 level of A-share peers.

  Risks

  Related to company operations, industry competition, project ramp-up, and geopolitical risks.

Key data

• RatingOverweightThe report reiterates the Overweight rating.
• Target priceHK$500.00Jun-27 target price, versus previous HK$600.00.
• Current share priceHK$215.00As of July 17, 2026.
• 2026E adjusted EPSRmb 8.18Previous Rmb 9.20, cut by 11.2%.
• 2027E adjusted EPSRmb 16.61Previous Rmb 17.55, cut by 5.3%.
• 2025-2028E earnings CAGR73%The report expects strong earnings growth to continue.
• 2026E revenueRmb 31,372mnUp 62.6% year on year.
• 2027E revenueRmb 59,932mnUp 91.0% year on year.
• 2028E revenueRmb 79,112mnUp 32.0% year on year.
• Recent share price performanceDown 51% from the May 28 peakHSTECH fell about 5% over the same period; the report views this as an overreaction by the market.

Impact & implications

The investment implication of the report is that short-term project timing risks have already been significantly reflected in the share price. Faster earnings growth in 2H, improved Vera Rubin mass-production share, or progress in Kyber testing could become catalysts for the stock. The company is still viewed as a core beneficiary of the strong AI PCB cycle.

Risks

• Margin or execution uncertainty during the capacity expansion process.
• Intense competition may lead to market share loss.
• Raw material price volatility and supply chain risk.
• Geopolitical tensions.
• Kyber commercialization progress may be slower than expected.
• Vera Rubin PCB mass-production ramp is slightly slower than previously expected.

What to watch

• The speed of Vera Rubin PCB mass-production ramp-up and subsequent share changes for Victory Giant Technology.
• Progress in Kyber rack (NLV144) testing, confirmation of the technical path, and commercialization timetable.
• Demand strength for NVDA’s current-generation products.
• Incremental revenue and share expansion from Google projects.
• Whether earnings growth accelerates in 2H 2026.
• Yield, cost control, and margin performance during the capacity expansion process.