China e-commerce sales growth slowed in March

Overview

This report tracks China’s retail and e-commerce data for March 2026. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s retail sales excluding autos rose 3.2% y/y in March to RMB 3.8 trillion; online retail sales of physical goods increased 2.5% y/y to RMB 1.1 trillion, a marked slowdown from the 10.3% y/y growth in the first two months of 2026. Average e-commerce y/y growth in 1Q26 was 7.5%, above the 2.3% pace in 4Q25.

Core views

The key takeaway is that e-commerce growth cooled in March in the near term, but not all consumer categories weakened at the same time. Online food and beverage, apparel, and household goods all slowed versus the first two months; in all-channel consumption, growth in food and daily necessities eased, while beverage growth improved. Discretionary categories diverged: PC and smartphone sales growth rose to 15% and 27.3% y/y, respectively, which Nomura believes was mainly driven by price increases amid tight memory supply; cosmetics growth also improved to 8.3%, while home appliances fell 5% y/y due to a high base and the fading effect after the trade-in policy was scaled back.

Analysis framework

The report is based on monthly retail data from the National Bureau of Statistics. It compares March on a standalone basis with the first two months of 2026, 4Q25, and 1Q26 y/y growth rates, and breaks down the results by online channels, essential consumption in all channels, and discretionary categories to assess marginal changes in China’s e-commerce and retail consumption.

Methodology notes

• Macroeconomic and industry data trackingComparison of y/y retail sales growth from the National Bureau of Statistics

  y/y growth and period-over-period comparison

  By comparing March, the first two months of 2026, 1Q26, and 4Q25 y/y growth rates, the report identifies marginal acceleration or deceleration in e-commerce sales and consumer categories.

• Channel penetration analysisE-commerce share of social retail sales

  e-commerce penetration

  The report measures online channel penetration by the share of online retail sales of physical goods in social retail sales, noting that China’s e-commerce penetration rose by 0.3 percentage points y/y to 29% in March.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China e-commerce platforms and internet retail-related stocks

  linked to sector demand and transaction scale

  Strengths

  E-commerce penetration continues to rise, and average 1Q growth improved versus 4Q25.

  Weaknesses

  March y/y growth in online retail sales of physical goods slowed to 2.5%, indicating weaker near-term growth momentum.

  Comparison

  March growth was below the 10.3% pace in the first two months of 2026, but 1Q26 growth of 7.5% was still above the 2.3% rate in 4Q25.

  Risks

  If online retail growth continues to slow, platform revenue, merchant ad spending, and valuation expectations could face pressure.

• PC and smartphone retail chain

  stronger-performing discretionary consumer categories

  Strengths

  March PC and smartphone sales grew 15% and 27.3% y/y, respectively, accelerating from the prior two months.

  Weaknesses

  The report believes part of the growth was driven by price increases rather than a full improvement in unit sales.

  Comparison

  In the first two months, PC and smartphone sales grew 5.8% and 17.8% y/y, respectively.

  Risks

  Price-led growth from tight memory supply may not be sustainable and could suppress underlying demand.

• Home appliance retail chain

  a discretionary category affected by policy and base effects

  Strengths

  Earlier trade-in policy support had boosted demand.

  Weaknesses

  March home appliance sales fell 5% y/y, reversing from 3.3% growth in the first two months.

  Comparison

  This contrasts with the acceleration seen in PCs, smartphones, and cosmetics.

  Risks

  A high base and the fading effect after subsidy reductions may continue to weigh on sales.

Key data

• March online retail sales of physical goods y/y growth2.5%Slower than the 10.3% y/y growth in the first two months of 2026.
• March online retail sales of physical goodsRMB 1.1 trillionExcludes service sales.
• March retail sales excluding autos y/y growth3.2%Corresponding scale was RMB 3.8 trillion.
• Average e-commerce y/y growth in 1Q267.5%Higher than the 2.3% growth in 4Q25.
• March e-commerce penetration29%Up 0.3 percentage points y/y.
• March online food and beverage sales y/y growth17.2%Lower than the 20.7% growth in the first two months of 2026.
• March online apparel sales y/y growth11.6%Lower than the 18% growth in the first two months of 2026.
• March online household goods sales y/y growth3.6%Lower than the 4.7% growth in the first two months of 2026.
• March PC and smartphone sales y/y growth15% / 27.3%Both accelerated versus the first two months of 2026; the report attributes this in part to higher prices amid tight memory supply.
• March home appliance sales y/y growth-5%Turned negative from 3.3% growth in the first two months of 2026, affected by a high base and the fading effect after the trade-in policy was scaled back.

Impact & implications

The implications for China’s internet and e-commerce sectors are somewhat cautious: the sharp slowdown in March online retail growth suggests that near-term elasticity in platform transaction volume and advertising/commission revenue may weaken. However, e-commerce penetration continued to edge up, and overall 1Q growth improved versus the previous quarter, indicating that the structural penetration trend for online channels has not reversed. Category-level divergence means investment judgment needs to distinguish between essential consumption, apparel and household goods, electronics, and home appliances.

Risks

• The sharp slowdown in March e-commerce sales growth may indicate weakening online consumption momentum.
• Policy-driven categories such as home appliances face risks from high bases and the fading of subsidies.
• The high growth in PCs and smartphones may be partly due to price increases rather than real volume expansion.
• The report’s data is mainly based on National Bureau of Statistics statistics, and some charts and footers are obscured by third-party repost watermarks.

What to watch

• Whether y/y growth in online retail sales of physical goods recovers from the March low in subsequent months.
• Whether e-commerce penetration can continue to improve y/y.
• Whether online sales growth in food and beverage, apparel, and household goods continues to slow.
• Whether home appliance sales remain under pressure after the trade-in policy is scaled back.
• The extent to which price effects versus volume effects drive PC and smartphone sales growth.