Nomura forecasts the USD/CNY central parity rate at 6.7434

Overview

Nomura released an Asia ex-Japan FX strategy update, providing a model forecast for the USD/CNY central parity rate. The report's key conclusions are a base-model forecast of 6.7434 and a forecast of 6.7639 after incorporating the countercyclical factor.

Core views

The base model indicates that the next trading day's USD/CNY central parity rate will decline from the previous day's level; the countercyclical factor raises the model forecast, although the adjusted forecast remains below the previous day's central parity rate.

Analysis framework

The report uses a quantitative USD/CNY central parity model, comparing the model forecast with the previous day's central parity rate and official spot close, and separately presenting the adjustment after incorporating the countercyclical factor.

Methodology notes

• Quantitative AnalysisUSD/CNY Central Parity Forecast Model

  Infers changes in the central parity rate based on overnight market movements

  The report shows the contribution of overnight factors to forecast changes and tracks forecast errors by comparing model forecasts with actual central parity rates.

• Policy AdjustmentCountercyclical Factor Adjustment

  Incorporates the countercyclical factor into the base-model forecast

  After incorporating the countercyclical factor, the forecast is adjusted from 6.7434 to 6.7639, reflecting the factor's upward effect on the forecast central parity rate.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• USD/CNY

  Direct Forecast Target

  Strengths

  Provides both the base-model and countercyclical-factor-adjusted results, together with comparisons against the previous day's central parity rate and spot close.

  Weaknesses

  The available content does not disclose the full model variables, weights, parameters, or forecast range.

  Comparison

  The base model is 6.7434; it is 6.7639 after incorporating the countercyclical factor; the previous day's central parity rate was 6.7905.

  Risks

  The actual central parity rate may deviate from the forecast due to policy actions, market risk appetite, USD movements, and factors not captured by the model.

Key data

• Base Model Forecast6.7434USD/CNY central parity rate forecast.
• Previous Day's Central Parity Rate6.7905The base-model forecast is 471 pips below this level.
• Forecast Adjusted for Countercyclical Factor6.7639266 pips below the previous day's central parity rate.
• Difference from Previous Official Spot Close7 pips higherThis is the report's stated comparison for the base-model forecast.

Impact & implications

If the actual fixing is close to the base-model forecast, the USD/CNY central parity rate will decline materially from the previous day; the forecast adjusted for the countercyclical factor is 255 pips above the base-model forecast, indicating that policy-related adjustments may materially affect the final fixing level.

Risks

• The model is based on historical relationships and simplified assumptions, and future market changes may lead to forecast errors.
• There is uncertainty regarding the actual use and degree of influence of the countercyclical factor.
• Unexpected policy developments, geopolitical events, changes in risk appetite, and liquidity volatility may affect the USD/CNY fixing.
• The report is only a single-day model forecast and does not constitute a complete trading recommendation.

What to watch

• The extent of deviation of the actual USD/CNY central parity rate from the two model forecasts of 6.7434 and 6.7639.
• The marginal impact of the countercyclical factor on the central parity fixing.
• The U.S. dollar index, overnight FX market volatility, and RMB spot closing performance.
• Meetings of the People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee and related policy signals.
• Market volatility around President Xi Jinping's visit to the United States on September 24, 2026, and the early-October China National Day holiday.