Upward revision in neocloud demand cushions late-cycle GB300 pressure

Overview

This report focuses on demand changes in the AI server supply chain during the late stage of the GB300 cycle. Nomura had previously worried that NVIDIA's transition from GB300 to VR200 in 2Q-3Q26 would suppress AI server rack shipments, but recent supply-chain checks show that emerging cloud service providers, especially xAI and Nebius-related demand, are placing significant additional GB300 orders, thereby cushioning the transition impact and creating upside for the downstream supply chain.

Core views

The core judgments are: first, xAI's purchasing capacity has been underestimated, with SpaceX financing and growing AI capex supporting more aggressive investment in compute infrastructure; second, the new orders are mainly for GB300 configurations, enough to ease shipment pressure from the GB-to-VR transition in 2H26; third, the beneficiaries are more concentrated in ODMs, power supplies, thermal solutions, cables, and connectors that are directly tied to rack shipments, rather than upstream segments more constrained by CoWoS capacity; fourth, AMD MI450 series strategic partnerships improve medium- to long-term sentiment, but clearer visibility is still needed on the multi-year deployment pace of OpenAI and Meta.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses supply-chain order observations, customer capex analysis, vendor guidance validation, and rack/GPU/CoWoS conversion assumptions. The authors map xAI, Supermicro, Dell, Nebius, and AMD customer announcements to GB300, VR200, and MI450 demand, then adjust NVIDIA module and rack shipment assumptions for 2026F to 2027F and identify the potential beneficiary paths for each supply-chain company.

Methodology notes

• Supply-chain trackingOrder and shipment assumption revisions

  Revise AI server rack shipment forecasts through customer orders, ODM revenue, and management guidance.

  The report uses xAI orders, Supermicro backlog, and monthly revenue of Taiwan ODMs as evidence for demand upgrades, and adjusts the GB/VR rack and module mix accordingly.

• Capacity conversionGPU, rack, and CoWoS demand conversion

  Convert GW-level data center deployment plans into MI450 chip, rack, and CoWoS wafer demand.

  The report assumes that a 1GW data center deployment requires about 250k MI450 chips, and based on this estimates that Anthropic's 2GW deployment corresponds to about 500k MI450s, 6.9k racks, and 55.6k CoWoS wafers.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• NVIDIA CORP / US.NVDA

  Core platform and exposure to GB300 and VR200 demand assumptions

  Strengths

  Additional GB300 orders lift 2026F and 2027F GB/VR rack assumptions, easing the impact of product transitions.

  Weaknesses

  VR200 module ramp is 1-2 months later than previously expected, so the product transition may still cause timing disruptions.

  Comparison

  Versus prior forecasts, 2026F GB/VR racks were raised from 54.5k to 62k, and 2027F from 62k to 66k.

  Risks

  Customer order deferrals, component bottlenecks, further VR200 delays, or weaker-than-expected GB300 deliveries.

• ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC / US.AMD

  Beneficiary of MI450/MI455 series strategic partnerships

  Strengths

  Deployment plans related to OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic, Oracle, and Microsoft improve visibility into MI450 series demand.

  Weaknesses

  The completion timing of multi-year deployment plans by OpenAI and Meta remains unclear, and the report has not yet raised CoWoS assumptions.

  Comparison

  Sentiment on AMD has improved significantly, but the magnitude of forecast revisions is smaller than the downstream rack assumption revisions for NVIDIA.

  Risks

  Longer deployment cycles, insufficient CoWoS supply, customer plan changes, or competitive product impacts.

• NEBIUS GROUP NV / US.NBIS

  Representative of neocloud demand and supply-chain customer

  Strengths

  Nebius is identified as an important customer of Gigabyte and Asustek, reflecting the pull from emerging cloud service providers on the Asian supply chain.

  Weaknesses

  The company itself is unrated, and the report mainly observes its demand contribution from a supply-chain perspective.

  Comparison

  Similar to xAI, Nebius is an emerging cloud service provider driving post-cycle GB300 demand upside.

  Risks

  Sustainability of capital expenditure, changes in leased compute demand, and supply-chain delivery capabilities.

• Wistron / 3231 TT

  Dell GB300/VR200 L10 supplier and MI4xx UBB mass-production assembler

  Strengths

  Benefits from Dell orders, GB300 rack shipments, and AMD MI4xx module assembly.

  Weaknesses

  Heavily affected by customer concentration and delivery timing.

  Comparison

  Compared with upstream CoWoS, Wistron is more directly driven by rack shipment volumes.

  Risks

  Customer order deferrals, production ramp-up, and gross margin volatility.

• Bizlink / 3665 TT

  Beneficiary in the AI data center power and data cable supply chain

  Strengths

  Higher power consumption and data transmission needs increase cable content value, and the report maintains a positive view on it.

  Weaknesses

  Gross margin was previously affected by suspended deliveries of HPC products.

  Comparison

  Among downstream components, Bizlink benefits from simultaneous upgrades across both GPU and ASIC platforms.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected recovery in customer demand, and weaker-than-expected improvement in product mix and gross margin.

Key data

• xAI 2026F GB300 orders>13k racksAbove the previous 6-8k rack assumption; 1H:2H26F could be 3-5k:8-10k.
• NVIDIA 2026F GB/VR rack assumption62k racksRaised from the previous 54.5k, mainly reflecting additional GB300 orders.
• NVIDIA 2027F GB/VR rack assumption66k racksRaised from the previous 62k, driven by GB300 order deferrals, later VR200 deliveries, and the Rubin/Rubin Ultra transition.
• Supermicro incremental backlog conversionUSD21bn equals about 4.5-5.3k GB300 racksEstimated based on USD4.0-4.5mn per GB300 rack.
• Anthropic MI450 deployment2GW; about 500k MI450 chips; about 6.9k racks; 55.6k CoWoS wafersThis CoWoS demand accounts for about 40% of Nomura's 2027F AMD MI series CoWoS assumption of 138k wafers.
• SpaceX AI capex share61% in 1Q26, 76% in 2025AI capex reached USD7.7bn and USD12.7bn, respectively.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, the report extends the upside opportunity in AI servers from pure GPU and CoWoS capacity to more downstream rack-related supply chains. If neocloud demand continues to materialize, the shipment gap originally expected from product transitions in 2H26 may be filled by additional GB300 orders, improving revenue and gross margin expectations for relevant ODM, PSU, thermal, cable, and connector suppliers. On the AMD side, strategic partnerships provide potential for upward revisions to CoWoS and MI450 supply chains after 2027, but this still depends on customer deployment timing.

Risks

• Additional GB300 orders may be delivered later into 1Q27, causing 2026 revenue recognition timing to fall short of expectations.
• If the VR200 module ramp is delayed further, it may once again amplify the product transition risk from GB to VR.
• OpenAI's and Meta's MI450 deployment plans lack clear annual breakdowns, so upward revisions to AMD CoWoS demand remain uncertain.
• Downstream component suppliers may face component bottlenecks, customer concentration, pricing pressure, and gross margin volatility.
• Many companies in the report are unrated or are only observed as supply-chain names, so investment conclusions need to be combined with company coverage reports and formal ratings.

What to watch

• Follow-up AI capex and GB300 order changes from neoclouds such as xAI, SpaceX, and Nebius.
• New orders, backlog, and delivery timing at Supermicro, Dell, and Taiwan ODMs.
• The timing of NVIDIA VR200 module ramp-up, and whether additional GB300 orders continue to concentrate in deliveries from 2H26 to 1Q27.
• The annual deployment pace of AMD MI450 partnerships with OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic, Oracle, and Microsoft.
• CoWoS capacity allocation and downstream component supply conditions for PSUs, thermal solutions, cables, and connectors.