Hansoh Pharma's B7H3 ADC combined with immunotherapy shows competitiveness in nsq NSCLC

Overview

This report comments on the clinical data released at AACR 2026 for Hansoh Pharma's B7H3 ADC Ris-Rez (HS-20093) in combination with the PD-L1 drug adebrelimab. The report believes this combination regimen demonstrated strong efficacy in previously treated AGA-negative non-squamous NSCLC and offers comparable competitiveness versus similar ADC-immunotherapy regimens.

Core views

The core view is that the cORR, DCR, and mPFS data for Ris-Rez + PD-L1 combination therapy enhance the clinical visibility of the B7H3 ADC asset and also provide catalysts for further data releases from Hansoh/GSK in lung cancer and other tumors. The report maintains an Overweight rating on Hansoh Pharma and assigns an Attractive industry view.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses event-driven analysis, clinical data interpretation, and cross-trial comparison: first assessing the efficacy and safety of the AACR 2026 expansion cohort, then benchmarking horizontally against similar ADC/immunotherapy combinations such as Datroway + Keytruda and Kelun/Merck SKB264 + Keytruda, while also considering NMPA Breakthrough Therapy designation and progress in the China phase 3 trial to judge commercialization prospects.

Methodology notes

• Valuation MethodDCF

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  The target price is based on a base-case DCF methodology, assuming a WACC of 8.3%, a terminal growth rate of 3%, and net debt/equity leverage of 25%.

• Clinical ComparisonCross-trial comparison

  Benchmarking metrics such as cORR, mPFS, and mDoR across different ADC/immunotherapy combinations

  The report compares Ris-Rez + PD-L1 horizontally with regimens such as Datroway + Keytruda and SKB264 + Keytruda, but notes that baseline characteristics and safety details are still needed to confirm competitiveness.

• Investment Research ModelMorgan Stanley ModelWare

  Morgan Stanley's internal forecasting and valuation framework

  Unless otherwise specified, financial metrics and valuation multiples are based on the Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework and analyst forecasts.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd (3692.HK)

  Covered company and equity target

  Strengths

  Overweight rating, HK$45.00 target price, improving data from innovative drugs and oncology pipeline, NMPA Breakthrough Therapy designation, and advancement of the China phase 3 trial.

  Weaknesses

  Valuation already reflects part of expectations and still depends on delivery of clinical data, commercialization pace, and globalization progress.

  Comparison

  Ris-Rez + PD-L1 is competitive relative to reference data for Datroway + Keytruda on mPFS, but cORR and mDoR comparisons still need to be assessed together with patient baseline and safety.

  Risks

  Clinical failure, unexpected competition, industry slowdown, drug price cuts, and slower-than-expected globalization progress.

• Ris-Rez / HS-20093 B7H3 ADC

  Core pipeline asset

  Strengths

  The combination regimen showed 47.1% cORR and 14.0 months mPFS in previously treated AGA-negative nsq NSCLC, with overall manageable safety.

  Weaknesses

  OS data are not yet mature, and detailed baseline characteristics and safety data remain to be further disclosed.

  Comparison

  Forms a direct benchmark against similar projects such as TROP2 ADC I/O doublet regimens and SKB264 + Keytruda.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition from similar ADCs and follow-up cohorts or phase 3 results falling short of expectations.

Key data

• Ris-Rez + PD-L1 cORR47.1%Data from the AACR 2026 expansion cohort in previously treated AGA-negative nsq NSCLC.
• Ris-Rez + PD-L1 DCR94.1%Disease control rate in the same expansion cohort.
• Ris-Rez + PD-L1 mDoR12.6 monthsMedian duration of response.
• Ris-Rez + PD-L1 mPFS14.0 monthsMedian progression-free survival; OS data are not yet mature.
• Historical monotherapy data for Ris-RezcORR 33.3%, mPFS 7.0 monthsMonotherapy data at the same dose were disclosed at the end of 2025.
• Reference data for Datroway + KeytrudamPFS 11.2 months, cORR 54.8%, mDoR 20.1 monthsCross-trial reference from TROPION-LUNG02 in 1L AGA-negative NSCLC.
• Target priceHK$45.00Implies about 13% upside versus the closing price of HK$39.76 on April 17, 2026.
• 2026e revenue forecastRmb17,249mnMorgan Stanley forecast.
• 2026e EPSRmb1.02EPS labeled based on the consensus methodology.

Impact & implications

If follow-up data continue to validate efficacy and manageable safety, Ris-Rez could strengthen valuation support for Hansoh Pharma in innovative drugs and its oncology pipeline, while increasing the probability of global partnerships and successful registration. Short-term stock catalysts mainly come from more data in lung cancer and other tumors, progress in the China phase 3 trial, and changes in the relative competitive landscape versus comparable ADC assets.

Risks

• Continued industry slowdown and further substantial price cuts.
• Greater-than-expected competition in CNS and oncology.
• Clinical failure of key pipeline assets.
• Slower globalization progress.
• Cross-trial comparisons involve differences in patient baseline, line of therapy, and safety disclosure, which may affect judgments on competitiveness.

What to watch

• More complete follow-up baseline characteristics and safety data for Ris-Rez + PD-L1.
• Maturity of OS data.
• Progress of the China phase 3 trial and registration pathway for AGA-negative nsq NSCLC in China.
• More data disclosures from Hansoh/GSK in lung cancer and other tumors.
• Frontline NSCLC data for Kelun/Merck SKB264 + Keytruda gradually maturing in 2026-2027.
• Whether innovative drug sales exceed expectations, whether product launches occur earlier than expected, and whether globalization accelerates.