Initiating coverage on Kedali: Steady growth in battery structural components, with robot components offering long-term optionality

Overview

This report marks Nomura's initiation of coverage on Kedali. It argues that, as a leader in precision battery structural components, Kedali's core business will benefit from rising demand for power and energy storage batteries, while the company is also expanding into humanoid robot components, particularly harmonic reducers, precision mechanical parts, controllers, and drives. The report assigns a Buy rating with a target price of CNY282.15.

Core views

The core views are: first, lithium battery and energy storage battery structural components will remain the company's main medium-term revenue and earnings driver; second, new products such as sodium-ion battery structural components are expected to improve product mix and profitability; third, if the humanoid robot industry enters mass production, the company's overseas capacity and existing domestic shipments could bring long-term revenue contributions; fourth, valuation uses 33x 2026F P/E, at a discount to the average of comparable companies to reflect slower growth than peers and uncertainty around the commercialization pace of new businesses.

Analysis framework

The report uses the company's business structure, downstream demand, robot component positioning, financial forecasts, and relative valuation as its main analytical framework. Earnings forecasts focus on 2026-28F revenue, net profit, net margin, and EPS, while valuation applies a target P/E to 2026F EPS and compares the company with domestic structural component and robot component-related companies.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodRelative P/E valuation

  Derives the target price of CNY282.15 using 2026F EPS of CNY8.55 and a target P/E of 33x.

  The target multiple is below the comparable companies' average 2026E P/E of 76x, mainly because the report forecasts Kedali's 2026-28F EPS CAGR at 28%, below the comparable average of 49%, and because there is uncertainty around the commercialization pace of new businesses.

• Earnings forecastSegment-based growth forecast

  Separately evaluates the revenue contribution from lithium battery structural components, automotive structural components, and humanoid robot components.

  The report forecasts 2026-28F revenue CAGR of 20% and 15% for lithium battery structural components and automotive structural components, respectively, and projects humanoid robot revenue of CNY100mn/CNY350mn/CNY700mn.

• Risk assessmentDownside risk identification

  Assesses risks to achieving the target price around demand, trade frictions, and the industrialization pace of humanoid robots.

  If lithium battery demand falls short of expectations, overseas trade frictions intensify, or humanoid robot industrialization progresses more slowly than expected, the company's earnings growth and valuation support could be affected.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Kedali 002850.SZ

  The report's covered target, primarily benefiting from demand for power battery and energy storage battery structural components while expanding into humanoid robot components.

  Strengths

  Leading customer base, strong technological accumulation in structural components, robust demand in energy storage, and new product opportunities from sodium-ion battery structural components and robot components.

  Weaknesses

  Commercialization of new businesses remains uncertain, earnings growth is expected to be lower than some comparable companies, and the 2028F forecast is below Wind consensus.

  Comparison

  Comparable companies include 300382 CH, 300115 CH, and 300953 CH; the comparable group trades at an average 2026E P/E of 76x, while Kedali's target multiple is 33x.

  Risks

  Lithium battery demand below expectations, intensified trade frictions, and slower-than-expected humanoid robot industrialization.

• Humanoid robot components business

  A future growth driver, with products including harmonic reducers, precision mechanical parts, controllers, and drives.

  Strengths

  The company has positioned capacity early in Thailand and may gain a first-mover advantage if global humanoid robots enter mass production.

  Weaknesses

  The Thailand project is still pending regulatory filing and project approval, and has not yet been included in the 2026-28F earnings forecast.

  Comparison

  Compared with the core battery structural components business, this segment offers higher growth optionality but lower visibility.

  Risks

  Slower progress in any part of the industry chain, including software, motion control, or hardware, could weigh on the pace of industrialization.

Key data

• RatingBuyInitiation of coverage rating.
• Target priceCNY282.15Based on 33x 2026F P/E and 2026F EPS of CNY8.55.
• Closing priceCNY182.28As of 2026-06-25.
• Implied upside54.8%Calculated from the target price relative to the closing price.
• 2026-28F revenue CAGR21%The report's forecast for overall company revenue growth.
• 2026-28F net profit CAGR30%The report's forecast for overall company net profit growth.
• 2026/27/28F EPSCNY8.55/CNY11.26/CNY13.45Used for valuation and earnings growth assessment.
• 2026/27/28F net margin12.0%/13.8%/14.3%An increase from 11.6% in 2025.
• Humanoid robot revenue forecastCNY100mn/CNY350mn/CNY700mnCorresponding to 2026/27/28F, mainly from shipments to domestic robot companies using existing capacity.
• China power battery/energy storage battery sales growth34.9%/87.7% y-yData from the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance, covering the first five months of 2026.

Impact & implications

For investors, Kedali's short- to medium-term investment thesis still mainly comes from steady growth and margin improvement in its core battery structural components business, while long-term optionality depends on the industrialization of humanoid robot components and the ramp-up of overseas capacity. The target price implies substantial upside, but whether the valuation can be realized depends on energy storage demand, the overseas trade environment, and the pace of robot mass production.

Risks

• If downstream lithium battery demand is lower than expected, industry overcapacity could worsen and pressure pricing and profitability in Kedali's core battery structural components business.
• If trade frictions intensify, especially if major overseas markets such as the EU and the US raise tariffs or adopt other restrictive measures, the company's overseas expansion and the export price advantage of China's new energy products could be affected.
• If humanoid robot industrialization proceeds more slowly than expected, valuation support from the robot theme may weaken and revenue contribution from new businesses may be delayed.
• The commercialization pace of new businesses is uncertain, and the Thailand harmonic reducer production base still faces approval and implementation progress risks.

What to watch

• The filing, approval, and capacity ramp-up progress of overseas factories and the Thailand harmonic reducer project.
• Whether demand for energy storage batteries remains strong, especially changes in tariffs and pricing pressure in overseas markets.
• The extent to which new products such as sodium-ion battery structural components improve product mix and margins.
• The pace of humanoid robot mass production, as well as progress in AI capabilities, motion control layers, robot hardware, and other parts of the industry chain.
• Whether the company's 2026-28F EPS, net margin, and revenue growth meet the report's forecasts.